The electoral map is not frozen in amber!
September 4, 2024
The media narrative abruptly shifted post-Labor Day weekend to proclaim that Pennsylvania will decide the 2024 election. Don’t believe it. That narrative is wrong on so many levels that it is insulting to the intelligence of American voters.
There are tens of thousands of federal, state, and local elections in November 2024—and every race matters. There are 34 elections for the US Senate, 435 elections for the US House of Representatives, 11 races for governorships, 5,807 races for state legislative seats, and thousands of additional races for city, county, and judicial seats, not to mention school board seats, county sheriffs, election officials, and state executives like secretary of state, and attorney general. See Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024 - Ballotpedia.
How America will be governed post-November 2024 will be decided by thousands of elections across the nation. Focusing only on the presidential race—in which Kamala Harris has the momentum—is a gross oversimplification. The House matters. The Senate matters. The state legislatures matter. State constitutions will matter. Please, oh please, please stop telling us “It all comes down to Pennsylvania.”
The narrative that “it will all come down to Pennsylvania” is wrong and defeatist. It presumes that the state electoral map is frozen in amber and that only one or two states are flippable. Don’t believe it! Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are contesting states that are presumed to be frozen in amber on red vs. blue maps on cable news.
The purveyors of the “frozen in amber” mindset are using models that do not—and cannot—account for the fact that reproductive liberty is literally on the ballot in 11 states and indirectly on the ballot in all fifty states via Project 2025’s plan to use the Comstock Act to ban abortion nationally.
The “frozen in amber” models do not and cannot account for the fact that one of the presidential candidates incited an insurrection, attempted a coup, tried to bribe an ally, retained national defense documents, was civilly adjudicated to be liable for sexual assault, and convicted of 34 counts of fraud.
The “frozen in amber” models do not and cannot account for the fact that the Democratic candidate is the second woman to receive a major party nomination and the first woman of Black and Asian heritage to do so. And yet, pollsters and pundits insist on cramming this unprecedented race into their historical models to tell us, “It all comes down to Pennsylvania”—a model that assumes an electoral college margin of victory of two votes. Anyone who is selling Kamala Harris short by saying, “It all comes down to Pennsylvania” is missing the moment.
I was amused to see Nate Silver’s tortured explanation of why Kamala Harris’s lead in the polls isn’t really a lead—even though when Trump was up by a smaller margin, pundits proclaimed Trump the victor without waiting for the vote in November. (Further evidence of why we should ignore the polls; they are props in the hands of charlatans who shape them to support partisan messages.)
Nate Silver insists that we must “factor out” the “post-election bounce” of the DNC convention. Was Nate Silver conscious during the DNC convention? Does he own a television? Can he read a newspaper? If he thinks that the wave of enthusiasm for Kamala Harris is like anything that happened in the last century, he should quit before he embarrasses himself even further.
The American media and consulting class are struggling—and failing—to understand the moment. But their lack of imagination and self-awareness is no excuse for their normalization of Trump.
It is a mistake to sell the American people short. The 2024 election will not be decided by Pennsylvania—although the votes of all Pennsylvanians will matter just like the votes of every other American. The election will be decided by hundreds of millions of Americans taking democracy seriously by voting in tens of thousands of elections at a moment in history when one party wants to deny women full citizenship and personhood, deny Black Americans the right to vote, deny LGBTQ Americans their dignity and equality, deny children safe schools, deny all Americans a future free of man-made climate catastrophes, deny workers of a living wage, and deny the peaceful transfer of power every four years.
My money is on the American people to vote on issues that are important to them—not on a media-concocted horse race designed to sell soap.
Harris-Walz campaign donates money to down-ballot Democratic groups
The Harris-Walz campaign has donated $25 million to several Democratic PACs, including the Democratic committees for the House, Senate, Legislative Campaign, governors, and state attorneys general. Some media outlets are reporting the donations as “Kamala Harris has so much money she is giving it away.” See Insider, Kamala Harris has raised so much money that she's giving $25 million of it to other campaigns.
In fact, Kamala Harris is strategically planning how to gain a governing trifecta if she is elected—a sign of confidence and forward thinking. The contestable states in the presidential election do not match the opportunities/vulnerabilities in the House and Senate races. While winning the presidency is vital, winning control of Congress is also critical.
As Kamala Harris distributes her campaign chest, Republican fundraisers are sounding the alarm about their deficit in swing states. See Politico, House and Senate Republicans are starting to panic about a huge money gap with Democrats.
We cannot be complacent, but we should take confidence from the fact that Kamala Harris is promoting a strategy to build an administration that can govern America.
Media continues to pretend that Kamala Harris has not made specific policy proposals
Part of the media’s normalization of Trump is its comparison of “policy positions” between Harris and Trump. Who is the media kidding? Trump's only policy position is, “If I win, I get to stay out of prison.” Everything else that comes out of Trump's mouth is designed to maximize his avoidance of prison.
Such statements are not “policies.” They are the desperate cries for help by a man afraid to go to prison because he could not begin his day with a spray-on bronzer and a thirty-minute coiffing session to tease his wisps of hair into a pompadour.
Readers noted in the Comment section to yesterday’s newsletter a truly awful editorial by the Washington Post Editorial Board that compared the policy positions of Harris and Trump. See WaPo, Harris and Trump are different. They need to explain how different.
As one reader noted, “I had to splash cold water on my face to make sure I was not still asleep, in some kind of dream unreality, when I read the headline!”
If the editorial board of the Washington Post needs Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to explain how they are not alike, the editors should resign en masse. It was a silly exercise beneath the Washington Post and its editorial board, which began by noting,
In character, style, tone, outlook, dignity, and, yes, race and gender, the two candidates are distinct.
The distinctions between them on policy substance, however, are somewhat fuzzier.
Uh, okay. I’ll play. “Insurrectionists for $200.” Or how about “Serial Sexual Abusers for $500.” Or maybe, “Current Vice President, former Senator, former Attorney General for the world’s fifth largest economy, and former prosecutor for $1,000.”
As I said above, Trump's only policy is, “What do I need to say to stay out of prison?” But the Post dignified Trump's policies by comparing them to those of Kamala Harris in the following passage:
Though specifics are light, Ms. Harris is plotting a wiser course. She is right to emphasize boosting housing supply, the key to lowering housing costs, and to propose enhancing effective anti-poverty programs such as the child tax credit and the earned-income tax credit. Unlike Mr. Trump, she acknowledges the fact of climate change, does not threaten Justice Department independence and seeks robust protections for reproductive rights.
Mr. Trump, meanwhile, is offering a far less appealing domestic plan, focusing on illegal immigration, tariffs and ending the green energy transition, and rightly lamenting illegal immigration without offering solutions to the problem.
The Post omitted all of Project 2025’s dystopian agenda in which women are subservient, baby-making machines, Trump is installed as an Imperial President, he destroys the administrative state, converts the DOJ to the president’s private law firm, destroys the environment, and extends a tax break for millionaires and billionaires at the expense of the middle class (and more).
By feigning ignorance of Trump's despotic visions of permanent power, the Post was able to ignore the chasm between the policies of Harris and Trump to render this pathetic, shocking conclusion:
In other words, the substantive contrasts Ms. Harris draws with Mr. Trump generally make her look better. But should Americans settle?
Excuse me?? “Why should Americans settle” for a highly experienced, ethical, competent leader over a man who has told us he wants to be a dictator??
Newspapers should report the news and editorial boards should comment on matters of public importance. But this election presents a moral choice that will be the hinge of democracy for decades to come. To engage in pretend editorializing driven by feigned ignorance is a shocking new low.
Folks, we are going to have to do this without the media—which is what Kamala Harris has concluded, too. See David Lurie writing in Public Notice (on Substack), Kamala Harris is cutting off Trump’s political oxygen. Per David Lurie
It’s hardly a coincidence that over the past several weeks, the power of the press to impact the tenor and focus of the presidential campaign — and the power of Trump's to do the same — has been suddenly thrown into question. By refusing to engage with Trump's taunts or play by journalists’ rules, Harris has upended presumptions about politics that have dominated during most of the past decade. And that’s a good thing
Opportunities for Reader Engagement
The pace of events is picking up. I hope you will take the time to peruse the events below.
Americans Abroad for Harris-Walz
You do not want to miss this event! Although it is directed at Americans Abroad, everyone can help support the important work of ensuring that the millions of Americans living abroad register and vote. Join a star-studded cast on Thursday, September 5 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. The event description and link to register is here: Americans Abroad for Harris-Walz - Democrats Abroad. But it is worth your while to peruse the list of amazing speakers! It will inspire confidence that so many committed Americans are rallying to help elect Kamala Harris.
Swing Left hosts Senator Elizabeth Warren will address how to “Protect 2025”!
Swing Left is hosting a Zoom call with Senator Elizabeth Warren on Thursday, September 5 at 5:00 p.m. Pacific /8:00 p.m. Eastern.
On the call, you can learn more about how we can all work together to defeat elect Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, and defeat Project 2025, Donald Trump, and MAGA extremists up and down the ballot. Your time and money is valuable—this call can help you invest it strategically.
Swing Left helps volunteers and donors find the more effective ways to take action on the most competitive elections that impact the national balance of power. We’re at a pivotal moment in the election cycle, with less than 65 days to go until voting ends on Election Day. From abortion access to education to environmental protection and more, there’s a lot on the line—and we’re fired up to elect Democrats to protect it all!
Calling All Concerned Grandparents, Aunts & Uncles (and everyone else, too)!
Join us in promoting and joining in on The Grand Connection!
RSVP HERE for this 30-minute Zoom from 7:00 p.m. this Thursday September 5.
Please invite—maybe even push— the voting-age grandkids, nieces, nephews, and other young people in your life to join you on a 30-minute Zoom with 20-year-old Sam Schwartz. Or join us on your own! Here is a letter to grandparents that explains why one concerned Today’s Edition reader who is a grandparent came up with the idea for The Grand Connection!!
Sam Schwartz and some fellow travelers from this summer's Tour To Save Democracy will briefly talk about why they feel voting is so important that they went all over the country in a bus this summer talking to young people— and they will follow that with Q&A.We will also have a special guest from the Harris Campaign, Heather Booth, who holds two official positions: National Progressive and Grassroots Engagement Director and National Seniors Engagement Director. Her 60 years of remarkable grassroots organizing and political activism, has justly earned her these titles.
Read more about Sam, the Tour, and view an 86-second video at the RSVP Link
Help Field Team Six continue its important work!
Field Team 6 has given so much to the grassroots community by using every outreach method there is — email, text, phone, geofencing, direct mail, targeted ads, social media storms, postcards, and live voter drives — andby providing us with data so we can register new voters and get out the vote. Field Team 6 has also given us the opportunity to be part of their family, and that has given us hope and our lives meaning during some of our darkest hours.
It’s now our time to give back to Field Team 6! Because of the unexpected tsunami of outreach (by postcard, text and phone) achieved by the now 26,000 Field Team 6 volunteers — the result of the widespread excitement and engagement to help elect Kamala Harris and Tim Walz — Field Team 6 is running out of the data we need to do our jobs, And that’s because they need more money to acquire more contact information for unregistered, likely Democrats! After all, isn't that what community is all about?!
Donations to Field Team 6 now would help immensely. For 2024, Field Team 6 set a goal of $3M to deliver 3M new Democrats and independents in the battleground states where we need them the most. At $1 per new voter, your support can literally swing the upcoming elections.
Please help Field Team 6 by making as meaningful a contribution as you can to help save our democracy!
Here’s Field Team 6’s donation link. If you’d rather donate by check or Zelle to avoid the 4% ActBlue fee, you can do so here. Need more info or a Zoom call? Contact:contributions@fieldteam6.org.
Concluding Thoughts
Over the weekend, Kamala Harris joined the President and top national security and military advisers in the Situation Room to discuss the ongoing efforts to achieve a cease-fire and hostage release in the Gaza war. But for a White House “read-out” of the meeting, we would not have known that Kamala Harris was engaged in meetings to free the hostages and achieve a cease-fire.
The fact that Kamala Harris continues to attend to the people’s business while she maintains a demanding campaign schedule explains, in part, why she isn’t prioritizing meetings with the media. Sadly, the media has come to view itself as the star of the story instead of reporting on the news made by others.
With two months left, every day matters. We must pick up the slack, fill the void, and counter the disinformation being promoted by the media. We must be advocates for the truth! In the mad dash that is the 2024 presidential campaign, we must “flood the zone” without waiting for permission or instructions. As Michelle Obama said in her speech at the Democratic convention, she has officially invited you to “Do Something!” If you aren’t already actively engaged, what are you waiting for?
Talk to you tomorrow!
Daily Dose of Perspective
Antares is a red supergiant, the 15th brightest star in Scorpio (as viewed from Earth).
Long story short, the image above is a botched effort. I took the image over the weekend at a “star party” 60 miles outside of Los Angeles. Antares is really big and bright. It overwhelmed the sensor on my camera (too long of an exposure?).
I tried to adjust the exposure to highlight the gas clouds, but I kept getting emerald greens and deep purples that belonged in a 1960s Jimi Hendrix poster but not in a photo of Antares. So, I punted. I removed all colors from the star's exterior (outside of the two halos) and left the interior “as-shot” from my camera. The two “halos” are artifacts of the imaging process but beautiful, nonetheless.
Here is what Antares should look like: Antares - Alpha Scorpii (astropixels.com)
And this article contains a mind-blowing graphic of how large Antares is compared to our sun (“Sol” in the graphic): Antares, the red star of summer (statesman.com)
This morning I read, as always, Robert's newsletter with great enjoyment and, actually, an odd (given the realities he discusses) sense of comfort. So, 2 observations I wanted to share: 1. Something's changed/changing in your writing style, Robert, and it's all good! I don't know why or how -- and not that the previous 'style' was lacking -- but you're sort of loosening up more? and that's producing really great metaphors, snarky comments, passion; and 2. I do wish everyone in the media would re-phrase the notice that a 2nd Trump term would 'destroy the environment' or words to that effect. Climate is probably my #1 issue of concern because everything, literally Every. Single. Thing. is under its umbrella. So, not only would Trump destroy 'the environment,' he would prevent the world from at best at this point holding our losses steady and even making some progress toward a different type of life, priorities, culture to protect any semblance of a future. That's way too many words on my part, but this is where I'm passionate and my inner chaos comes out. We're moving way too slowly as it is, although we are making progress (see Rebecca Solnit on FB as well as Climate Action Now on substack for encouragement); to do ANYTHING but move forward and fast is not just problematic, it's apocalyptic. To describe the climate emergency as anything but an Emergency is just plain dangerous.
Such great information, Robert. I’ve been saying all along that people need to vote blue up and down the ballot. We need the House, Senate and state Judges so things can finally start getting passed. BLUE 🌊 !! The policy differences in Harris and don-old are like night and day. Although he keeps saying Project 2025 has nothing to do with his, you’d have to be a raving idiot not to believe that this is what his platform is. Complete control. Bigotry, misogyny and taxes for everyone except the rich. A dictatorship.
I enjoyed your “Jeopardy “ game parody. Corporate Media is in don-old’s back pocket. They all want their tax cuts. All we can do is call them out on their lies and omissions. Antares photo is beautiful even with the shooting faults only known to you. I looked at it on the site you recommended and I can’t get over how large it is.