The coming week.

December 11, 2023

          December is usually a slow news month. Not this year. There is so much going on it is difficult to identify a “through-line” for the political news for the second week in December. Challenges, obstacles, and opportunities abound. Here is how I am thinking about the news on Sunday evening:

The Israeli-Hamas war is reverberating through American society.

          After a controversial session of congressional testimony, the president of the University of Pennsylvania resigned, and pressure is mounting for the resignation of the presidents of Harvard and MIT. The executive committee of the MIT board of trustees issued a statement offering its strong support for the university’s president. Faculty members are beginning to rally to the defense of Claudine Gay (Harvard) and Sally Kornbluth (MIT).

          Issues regarding the limits of free speech are colliding with underlying views on Israel’s right to exist, the status of Gaza and the West Bank, and the path to permanent peace in the Middle East. MAGA extremists are blaming “critical race theory” and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts at colleges and universities for the increase in antisemitism in higher education.

          There are dozens of articles and opinion pieces analyzing the crosscurrents of this difficult moment in American history. I will not attempt to add to those analyses except to urge everyone to avoid deliberate provocation in discussing issues where everyone can be simultaneously right and wrong depending on which point in history serves as the starting point for the discussion and what unspoken premises animate the respective viewpoints of the parties. The Israeli/Hamas war will end. When it does, we will still be facing a grave threat to democracy in America—and we will need everyone to join in that struggle.

Developments relating to US support for Israel.

          There were two significant developments relating to US support for Israel in its war on Hamas.

          First, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire. Blinken Defends U.S. Veto On UN Cease-Fire Resolution For Gaza | HuffPost Latest News. Secretary of State Blinken said,

We have been a strong proponent of humanitarian pauses. In fact, because of our advocacy, because of the work we did, we got pauses. We got pauses on a daily basis to make sure that people could get out of the way, that humanitarian supplies could get in. We helped negotiate the longer pause [for] the release of more than 110 hostages, and it also allowed doubling of the humanitarian assistance that was getting into Gaza.

          Second, the Biden administration authorized the transfer of ammunition to Israel by using a procedure that bypassed Congress. See HuffPost, State Department Approves Sale Of Tank Ammunition To Israel In Deal That Bypasses Congress. Use of an emergency authorization is expected to result in pushback from some members of Congress, which typically provides (or withholds) approval for transfer of weapons and ammunition.

          Intra-party disagreements over the Biden administration’s strong support for Israel is shaking up Democratic politics. Democrats are seeing an unusual number of primary opponents to incumbent Democrats. See The Hill, Progressives face growing primary threats over Gaza stance. At the same time, support for Palestinians is growing among younger, urban, diverse voters.  

          I have no answers to offer (yet)—except to say that when the Israeli / Hamas war ends, we will still be facing a grave threat to democracy in America—and we will need everyone to join in that struggle.

President Zelensky will visit US on Tuesday.

          In a sign of increasing concern, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit the US on Tuesday of this week in an effort to convince US lawmakers to authorize supplemental funding for Ukraine. See Politico, Zelenskyy to make last ditch trip to D.C. to meet Biden and push Congress for aid.

          Absent an unexpected development, the likelihood of Congress approving a supplemental aid bill for Ukraine this year are nearly non-existent. But House Speaker Mike Johnson is scheduled to meet with President Zelensky.

          Zelensky’s visit comes immediately after a Russian spokesperson issued a statement saying that it will only accept an unconditional capitulation by Ukraine in exchange for peace. See ISW, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2023. Per ISW,

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasized that Russia's maximalist objectives in Ukraine have not changed, repeating the Kremlin’s demand for full Ukrainian political capitulation and Kyiv’s acceptance of Russia’s military and territorial demands rather than suggesting any willingness to negotiate seriously.

          Putin sees the weakening US support for Ukraine and is demanding that Ukraine concede Russia’s territorial claims and transfer control of the Ukrainian government to a Russian puppet. The situation is becoming increasingly urgent—for Ukraine and the US. If Ukraine falls, US allies in NATO will be next in Putin’s dream of re-creating the Russian empire under Peter the Great.  

Texas Supreme Court suspends ruling allowing woman to obtain abortion.

          Kate Cox is in her 20th week of pregnancy with a fetus that has a rare genetic disorder that is “incompatible with life.” According to her doctors, the continuation of her pregnancy poses a threat to her health, life, and future fertility. A trial court ruled that she was entitled to an abortion under exceptions in Texas’s restrictive abortion statute.

          But after the trial court issued its ruling, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sent letters to Kate Cox’s doctors and hospital threatening criminal prosecution and suspension of licenses if they provide an abortion procedure for a pregnancy that cannot result in a live birth and may kill Kate Cox. See New Republic, Texas’s Attorney General Has a Ghoulish New Abortion Stance | “Ken Paxton is threatening to prosecute doctors and hospitals for obeying court orders that grant exemptions to the state’s draconian abortion law.”

          The matter was appealed to the Texas Supreme Court, which suspended the ruling of the trial court. See The Guardian, Texas supreme court temporarily blocks woman from abortion for non-viable pregnancy.

          Ken Paxton’s position is so odious that even so-called “pro-life” advocates are urging him to reverse his position. See Fort Worth Star-Telegram, op-ed by Nicole Russell, Paxton’s threat to doctors over abortion to save woman isn’t pro-life.

          The actions of Paxton (and possibly the Texas Supreme Court) are cruel and reckless. Paxton has demanded that they prove—to his personal satisfaction—that they will die if they do not receive an abortion. The circumstances of Kate Cox’s pregnancy are tragic and remind all voters why MAGA extremists cannot be trusted in anything they say about “reasonable” restrictions on abortions. They want to control the lives and reproductive liberty of women. Full stop.

Elon Musk allows Alex Jones back on Twitter—then throws a party for Jones.

          Alex Jones is the producer and anchor of “InfoWars,” a garbage pit of misinformation and lies. Jones spent years claiming that the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary was a “false flag” operation staged by crisis actors. His heinous promotion of the theory resulted in years of harassment and death threats against the parents who lost their children in the shooting. Jones was sued for defamation and lost. Plaintiffs have been awarded nearly a billion dollars against Jones. See NPR, Alex Jones files for bankruptcy following $1 billion Sandy Hook verdicts.

          Jones was banned from Twitter five years ago. On Sunday, Elon Musk welcomed Alex Jones back to Twitter after a sham “poll” of users showed support for allowing Jones back onto the platform. As if that wasn’t bad enough, Musk hosted an online celebration for Jones—a two-hour live discussion between Musk, Alex Jones, GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and accused rapist Andrew Tate. See Business Insider, Elon Musk Restores Alex Jones' Account 5 Years After Ban, and Huffington Post, Elon Musk Hosts Unhinged Panel With Alex Jones After Reinstating His X Account.

Jack Smith responds to Trump's motion for stay of election interference case.

          Jack Smith filed his opposition to Trump's motion to stay the election interference case pending before Judge Chutkan in D.C. Jack Smith’s brief is here: US v. Trump | Memo in Opp. to Stay | 2023-12-10.

          Smith took an interesting approach in his brief. He acknowledged that Trump's appeal of the presidential immunity defense stays portions of the case—but not all. Smith urged Judge Chutkan to deny the motion to stay the entire case pending appeal. Smith then looked ahead to the D.C. Circuit’s rejection of Trump's argument on appeal—which would put the case back on track for trial. Smith wrote,

To help ensure that trial proceeds promptly if the Court’s order is affirmed [on appeal], during the pendency of the defendant’s appeal, the Government will meet every pretrial deadline the Court has set for it. Then, as soon as the mandate returns, the Court can promptly resolve any remaining issues and start trial.

          In short, Smith is asking the court to keep the matter moving to trial to the extent possible.

          If Judge Chutkan denies Trump request to stay the case entirely, Trump will ask the D.C. Circuit to stay the entire case. And if Trump loses in the D.C. Circuit, he will ask the Supreme Court for a stay.

          It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future, but a good result will be the issuance of a partial stay by the D.C. Circuit (to avoid a trip the Supreme Court) with a hearing on Trump's appeal set for late January 2024. That would keep the matter on track for a March trial.

Robert Kagan strikes again.

          Robert Kagan wrote another op-ed in the Washington Post. This time, he said he was responding to readers’ unhappiness with the fact that he offered no solutions in his first op-ed. Again, I am not going to waste a gifted link to his op-ed, but it is entitled, Opinion|  The Trump dictatorship: How to stop it.

          Dozens of readers sent me links to Kagan’s second op-ed. Thanks! The first time I started to read the op-ed, I stopped three paragraphs in, when Kagan wrote:

Here are several things people could do to save the country but almost certainly won’t do, because they selfishly refuse to put their own ambitions at risk to save our democracy.

          Geez! Nothing like predicting failure to motivate people to follow your suggestions! So, I set the self-defeating op-ed aside. But then I received more recommendations to read Kagan’s op-ed, so I gave in. Here are Kagan’s solutions to stop Trump:

1. Republicans should nominate Nikki Haley for president.

2. If Republicans don’t nominate Nikki Haley, she should run as a third-party candidate to help Joe Biden win.

3. Since neither of the above two will happen, Republicans need to start “pushing back” against Trump's lies.

          The first two solutions won’t happen, and it is insulting that Kagan believes he is the first person to suggest the third solution.  

          In the only “positive” comments by Kagan, he writes:

Some readers of my last essay asked fairly: What can an ordinary citizen do? The answer is, what they always do when they really care about something, when they regard it as a matter of life and death. They become activists. They get organized. They hold peaceful and legal rallies and marches. They sign petitions. They deluge their representatives, Republican or Democrat, with calls and mail, asking them to speak up and defend the Constitution.

          While Kagan’s advice is swell, he has apparently missed the massive grassroots activist movement that emerged in 2017—and is still growing strong. But before Kagan lets his enthusiasm get the better of him, he drops these gems:

Can a Trump dictatorship still be prevented? Yes . . . [But] it is probably fanciful to imagine that the right combination of people will turn up and show a wisdom and courage they have not shown for the past eight years. [¶] I am deeply pessimistic, but I could not more fervently wish to be proved wrong.

          Here is one solution that Robert Kagan should consider: Stop dousing people with defeatism and fatalism, take a self-imposed vacation from publishing op-eds until after the 2024 election, and donate to some of the thousands of grassroots organizations that are already doing the things he suggests as solutions in his op-ed.

Concluding Thoughts.

          I am going to keep talking about how good the economy is until readers believe that it is a point worth promoting. There are lots of ways to measure how good the economy is. But many Republicans argue that the reason the economy is looking so good is because we are comparing the current economy to the pandemic economy (which was horrible).

          However, economists have recently begun noting that the economy in 2023 is performing better than economists believed it would when they looked ahead four years in 2020. See the op-ed by Catherine Rampell in the Washington Post, How good is the U.S. economy? It’s beating pre-pandemic predictions.

          In short, in 2020, economists expected the US would have 155 million jobs in 2023. In fact, the US has 157 million jobs in 2023—two million more jobs than predicted. Two million more jobs than predicted is a LOT of jobs!

          Why does this matter? At one level, it is an argument that may be too complicated to explain if you are trying to persuade someone that Biden has done a wonderful job shepherding the economy. On the other hand, the extra two million jobs are real—providing support for approximately 6.2 million Americans in households with a wage earner.

          Six million Americans in families with a wage earner is a big deal. It is not a number that has meaning only if an economist squints through one eye while standing on their head. If nothing else, it should give you confidence that the economy really is performing well—a performance that is making a material difference to six million Americans (at least). The fact that your neighbor has a job doesn’t bring down the price of eggs, but it helps everyone in the community when employment is higher.

          Sooner or later the accumulation of facts—large and small—should make a difference in the media narrative about the economy, which may affect people’s perception about the economy. And even if you are unconvinced by the force of the above arguments, imagine the world of hurt Democrats would be in if the number of jobs in 2023 was two million fewer than predicted in 2020! Let’s count our blessings and move on!

          Talk to you tomorrow!