The coming week.

October 23, 2023

          As America faces multiple crises that demand urgent action, House Republicans are going through the motions of electing a Speaker of the House. Whatever they do, it won’t matter. Until Republicans elect a Speaker who enjoys bipartisan support, any Speaker elected solely by Republicans will be doomed to fail. It is not enough to be elected Speaker. The new Speaker must immediately shepherd eleven spending bills through the House before the November 17 shutdown date—or gain support for a “continuing resolution” to keep the federal government open on a temporary basis.

          Even more daunting, the eleven bills (or continuing resolution) must also pass in the Senate. It does no good for House Republicans to pass bills that are publicity stunts; such bills will not keep the government open.

          So, here’s the point that will be lost in the media’s “Where’s Waldo?” coverage of the Speaker’s race: The question is not “Who can win 217 votes on the House floor?” but “When will Republicans nominate someone capable of passing legislation that will be approved by the Senate and signed by President Biden?” The answer to the latter question is, “Only when Republicans nominate a candidate who will be elected with bipartisan support.”

          Sadly, Republicans have yet to humiliate and debase themselves so completely that they will—gasp!—vote for someone who will accept Democratic support to govern the House.

          With that bracing reminder as background, let’s briefly look at the meaningless chaos that Americans must endure in the coming week.

          As of the Sunday Noon deadline, nine Republicans had indicated their intent to seek nomination for Speaker by the GOP caucus. See Washington Post, Here are the nine Republicans running for House speaker. (This article is accessible to all.) Seven of the nine candidates voted to overturn the 2020 election results. The leading candidate—Tom Emmer—is opposed by Trump precisely because Emmer voted to certify the count of the electoral ballots. See Mother Jones, Tom Emmer Didn’t Help Trump Steal the 2020 Election. It’s Payback Time.

          And the idea of drafting acting Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry into involuntary service as a Rent-a-Speaker still lurks in the background. See Mike Kelly's plan to elevate Patrick McHenry could be next in House Republicans' speaker drama | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

        Per Punchbowl News (behind a paywall), the schedule for next week calls for a “candidate forum” on Monday, a “closed” vote of the GOP caucus on Tuesday, and a floor vote of all House members on Tuesday afternoon—the 21st day without a Speaker!

          The lengthy debacle has crystalized two ugly truths about the hollowed-out shell of the GOP.

          First, the inability of Republicans to elect a Speaker is a direct consequence of their election denialism—the “It only counts if I win” mentality. One purpose of a caucus is to allow members to meet behind closed doors, select a candidate, and then emerge as a unified voting bloc. That quaint notion was destroyed when 140 election deniers in the Republican majority were called upon to elect a Speaker. The notable absence of unity in the GOP caucus led to fifteen rounds of voting for Kevin McCarthy. Over the last three weeks, internal GOP caucus votes nominating a candidate for Speaker have been routinely ignored by various factions within the caucus. Rather than supporting the winners of their internal caucus votes, House Republicans have simply refused to recognize the results of their own elections—a trick that Trump taught them in 2020.

          Second, House Republicans have used threats of violence as an election tactic in the Speaker’s race. Opponents of Jim Jordan were swamped with threats of violence by Jordan supporters. See CNN, Opinion: What violent threats against the Jim Jordan holdouts tell us about the GOP. Republicans normalized threats of violence against their Democratic opponents in 2016 and thereafter. Some dismissed the violent insurrectionists who attacked US Capitol as “peaceful tourists.” They have now turned their learned behavior of threats of violence against one another. It is a tactic that will be difficult to unlearn.

          Despite the likelihood of greater chaos and a lengthy shutdown before this crisis passes, there is reason for hope. Republicans have boxed themselves into a corner with only one way out—a bipartisan coalition between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans will exhaust every other option (including the Rent-a-Speaker option) before reluctantly surrendering to the idea of cooperating with Democrats to keep the government operating. It will happen. It must.

          And then . . . all hell will break loose in the 2024 GOP primaries for the House. As in 2020 and 2022, extremist candidates will challenge Republicans who work with Democrats to keep the government open. That internal fighting will create greater opportunity for Democrats to reclaim the House—and to restore a true governing majority to the people’s House.

President Biden hosts a call with foreign leaders regarding Israel's war on Hamas.

          On Sunday, President Biden held a joint call with leaders from Canada, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy to discuss Israel’s war on Hamas. The leaders issued a joint statement that said, in part,

The leaders reiterated their support for Israel and its right to defend itself against terrorism and called for adherence to international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians.

The leaders . . . committed to continue coordinating with partners in the region to ensure sustained and safe access to food, water, medical care, and other assistance required to meet humanitarian needs.

The leaders committed to continue close diplomatic coordination, including with key partners in the region, to prevent the conflict from spreading, preserve stability in the Middle East, and work toward a political solution and durable peace.

          The situation in Israel and Gaza is deteriorating with each passing hour. To the extent we have any insight into what President Biden is doing, he is working behind the scenes with allies (including Israel) to contain the conflict and protect civilians.

A few notes about Trump.

          First, the guilty plea of Sidney Powell in the Georgia RICO case has touched a nerve with Trump. Having described Powell as his attorney while Trump was in office, he now claims that she was “never” his attorney. See CNN, After Sidney Powell pleads guilty in Georgia case, Trump claims she was ‘never’ his attorney, despite their past ties.

In his rant, Trump claimed that Powell would have been “conflicted” if she had simultaneously represented Trump and Michael Flynn in his request for a pardon. That brief reference to a “conflict” has caused some commentators to claim that Trump may have granted a “quid pro quo” pardon to Flynn (which would be voidable).

          The complicated argument alleging a “quid pro quo” between Sidney Powell and Trump regarding the Flynn pardon is here: See Empty Wheel, Donald Trump Raises Conflict Concerns about His Mike Flynn Pardon. The argument is based on inferences and a bit difficult to follow, but the DOJ has recently argued that granting a pardon on a “quid pro quo” basis would vitiate presidential immunity. Curiouser and curiouser!

          Second, the lawsuit brought in Colorado state court seeking to remove Trump from the ballot will proceed to trial, possibly in late October. See Business Insider, Colorado Case Could Keep Donald Trump Off 2024 Presidential Ballot. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) brought suit claiming that Trump is disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment from holding federal office for engaging in insurrection on January 6 (after having taken an oath to uphold the Constitution).

          The Colorado case will be the first serious effort to litigate the Section 3 claim against Trump. As previously explained by Professor Laurence Tribe,

Colorado “is a special place” because “unlike many other states, Colorado has a specific statute which allows registered voters to take the secretary of state to court and demand that the secretary of state exclude anyone who doesn’t meet all of the qualifications, even at the primary stage.”

          The issue will likely be decided by the US Supreme Court, but the fact that Colorado is proceeding apace is good news for the final resolution of the Section 3 claim on the merits. Stay tuned!

Concluding Thoughts.

          I have spoken to and heard from dozens of readers over the weekend. Many are overwhelmed by the news out of the Middle East and are reluctant to engage with the news. That is understandable. If you need emotional distance, take it. But somehow, we must find the will to continue the work of defending democracy at home. As an observation—and not a criticism (at this time)—it is no coincidence that the enemies of Israel and Ukraine chose to attack at moments when they believed that the governments of Israel, Ukraine, and the US were weakened by internal strife and political instability.

          For the good of both domestic and international stability, a healthy US democracy matters. We may feel powerless to affect the broad sweep of events on the global stage. But we can affect those events—by convincing voters to show up at the polls in 2023 and 2024. Action is the antidote to anxiety. In this instance, that action may also be the antidote to global strife.

          Take a breath and then—if you can—focus on changing the outcome in local, state, and federal elections. We can do that. We have done it before. We can do it again.

          Talk to you tomorrow!