The chaos caucus.

January 4, 2023

          There is a limit to how far you can go in politics without a spine, conscience, or personality. Kevin McCarthy hit that limit on Tuesday as he failed in three votes to be elected Speaker of the House. The House will resume voting for Speaker on Wednesday at Noon EST. The House can do nothing else until it elects the Speaker. (Article II, Section 2, Cl. 5 of the Constitution commands that “The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker.”)

          Given the torrent of coverage on this issue, I will opt for brevity.

          The inability of Republicans to elect the Speaker is the inevitable result of six years of the following:

•     Undermining the rule of law.

•     Exalting bullies.

•     Glorifying violence.

•     Valuing extremism over compromise.

•      Replacing substance with grievance.

•      Replacing loyalty to the Constitution with a cult of personality.

•      Valorizing cruelty and mocking valor.

•      Ridiculing civil discourse and celebrating sarcasm and cynicism.

          There is more, but you get the point. When you encourage political terrorism, you cannot pretend surprise when your recruits take you hostage. Kevin McCarthy has learned that lesson the hard way. It couldn’t have happened to a more deserving guy.

          The Republican caucus is in disarray as of Tuesday evening. No one can predict the outcome of the election for Speaker. But everyone can predict that the historic dysfunction bodes ill for the ability of Congress to perform its constitutional duties over the next two years. Democrats should not celebrate the ascendance of the chaos caucus in the House. That chaos threatens the stability of the federal government and the well-being of every American.

          The events of Tuesday are notable for an additional reason: They underscore the brilliance of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker and the remarkable unity of House Democrats over the last two years. Together, they passed several pieces of landmark legislation despite the same narrow margin of control that defeated Republicans on the first day of their alleged control of the House.

Trump is missing in action but throwing bombs from the back benches.

          Trump is still the most powerful figure in the GOP, though his influence is waning quickly. He originally backed Kevin McCarthy in his bid for Speaker. But on Tuesday, Trump branded Kevin McCarthy as a “loser” by refusing to confirm his support for McCarthy during an interview. See The Hill, Trump won’t say if he’s sticking by McCarthy after failed Speakership votes. In refusing to back McCarthy, Trump attempted to portray himself as a kingmaker:

I got everybody calling me wanting my support. But let’s see what happens and we’ll go — I got everybody calling, wanting my support. That’s all I can say. But we’ll see what happens. We’ll see how it all works out.

          The desperate McCarthy claimed that Trump reiterated his support for McCarthy in a private conversation after Trump’s public refusal to do so. See The Hill, McCarthy says Trump reiterated his support for Speakership bid. Pathetic!

          Trump’s abandonment of McCarthy in his hour of need was predictable and predicted—which makes it all the more humiliating for McCarthy. See The Atlantic, Kevin McCarthy’s Loyalty to Trump Got Him Nothing.

Per The Atlantic,

[McCarthy] made a deal with Donald Trump, and now he’s learning how little it was worth. McCarthy decided early on to stay as close to the former president as possible, but even Trump’s steadfast public support couldn’t prevent embarrassment in today’s vote for speaker of the House. Nearly everyone who has pinned their political hopes on Trump has, for one reason or another, had it backfire on them. McCarthy’s case is just a vivid example.

          Why does any of this matter to Democrats? Because it portends a truly ugly and chaotic primary season for Republicans in the 2024 presidential race. Trump’s endorsement was worthless to McCarthy in the fight to become Speaker, but McCarthy is desperately clinging to the fiction that Trump still endorses his bid to become Speaker. Trump may be diminished, but we should not underestimate his ability to accelerate the descent into the maelstrom that is engulfing the Republican Party.

And so it begins . . .

          Proving that it is never too early to begin with a negative media narrative, The Hill has published an article titled Biden faces questions over whether he can beat DeSantis. The article begins by noting that a “better-than-expected midterm election performance for his party has improved his political standing while damaging his chief GOP rival—former President Trump.” To be clear, Biden’s mid-term performance was much better than “better-than-expected.” No president has experienced the same midterm success in more than a century.

          After the obligatory nod to Biden’s midterm success, the article quickly pivots to “possible” bad news for Biden:

Yet Biden also enters the new year with lingering questions over his age and his overall political strength — most notably whether he can defeat a different Republican in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis if he is the GOP nominee in 2024.

          After that thesis, it’s all bad news for Biden—mostly focused on the fact that he is “an old white guy” who can win only if he faces another old white guy (like Trump). DeSantis, on the other hand, is treated as a golden boy whose only relevant political history is coasting to a second term as Florida’s governor. No mention of illegally flying migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard without their knowledge. Not a word about DeSantis’s anti-vaccine denialism that likely contributed to the deaths of tens of thousands of Floridians. No mention of his war on LGBTQ people, his dog-whistle support for white Christian nationalism, or his anti-immigrant stance in a state filled with immigrants. No mention of DeSantis’s war on education, teachers, and science-based knowledge. But, hey, that doesn’t fit the narrative of “Biden is an old white guy” facing a much younger opponent.

          The slant in the article in The Hill is deft. The author can claim she kinda-sorta-tried to be fair—but she wasn’t. (She concedes that “Democrats say [Biden will] be tough to defeat no matter who his GOP opponent is.”) The author wanted to write a story about Biden being old—and accomplished that goal.

          On the upside, the media is already talking about Trump as a loser—something he will never willingly accept. Like it or not, DeSantis’s biggest problem isn’t Biden. It is Trump. The Hill skipped over the real story of 2024. Trump isn’t going to go away that easily.

The Latino vote in 2022.

          I have delayed commenting on voting trends in 2022 because I have yet to find a comprehensive analysis from a third-party based on reliable post-voting data. If you are aware of such a source, I would appreciate a link (especially to a non-paywalled source that I can share with readers).

          Axios published an article on the impact of the “Latino” vote in 2022. I put the term “Latino” in quotes because the community identified as “Latino” by pollsters is a diverse group of Americans that defies easy description. See Axios, New midterms data shows Latinos helped Dems win key races. Here is the key takeaway:

A new analysis of the 2022 midterms suggests Democrats kept just enough Latino voter support to win key state and federal races in Arizona, Nevada, and Texas while faltering in Florida.

Early signs suggest that GOP gains in Florida were greatest among non-Cuban American, non-Puerto Rican Latino voters, the analysis found. But it's unclear why.

     Overall, the report described in Axios suggests that Democrats must do a better job of fortifying a constituency of historical strength for Democrats. The result in Florida is perplexing—the biggest gain for the GOP was among Latinos who identified as neither Cuban nor Puerto Rican. That makes no sense to me. I hope that Democratic strategists can understand what happened to Democratic support in the Latino community in Florida before the 2024 election.

          The point is that the Latino vote for Democrats in 2022 was okay in three states (Arizona, Nevada, and Texas) but really disappointing in one state. As always, the story is more nuanced and complicated than suggested in media headlines. But we must remain open to the truth in the data, however unpleasant.

Wisconsin election for state supreme court justice in April, 2023.

          Wisconsin’s state supreme court currently has a 4-3 split in favor of Republican justices. One of the Republican justices is retiring and will be replaced in an April 4, 2023, general election (following a February 23, 2023 primary). Len Lubinsky writes about this important election in his superb blog, Len’s Political Notes. Len’s write-up on the Wisconsin election for the supreme court vacancy is here:  Political Note #528 Janet Protasiewicz for Wisconsin Supreme Court.

          Len endorses one of the four primary candidates for the vacancy—Janet Protasiewicz —but reviews each of the candidates in his blog post. Check out the post about Protasiewicz in particular and Len’s blog in general. While our attention is understandably drawn to 2024, there are ongoing local elections that may affect the outcome of the next presidential race. Len’s blog is a good reminder of that fact. [Note to readers: I am happy to consider promoting other local races in the near term that could benefit from reader support.]

Concluding Thoughts.

          Other important stories deserve comment this week: Trump’s tax returns, additional evidence from the January 6th Committee, and legislation included in the omnibus spending bill passed before Christmas. I will turn to those stories shortly, but I welcome reader discussion on those topics in the Comments section. I read the Comments for story ideas and feedback every day, so help me be responsive to your interests by letting me know what you are thinking! (Everyone can read the Comments, but the ability to post a Comment is usually open only to paying subscribers. I occasionally open the Comments section for posts from all subscribers as events warrant.)

          The tragic injury to Damar Hamlin was made even more tragic by the immediate response of anti-vaccine trolls on Twitter who baselessly blamed Hamlin’s cardiac arrest on a reaction to a Covid vaccine. Their comments were cruel and insensitive to Hamlin, his family, and people who will mistakenly believe the lies published by the trolls on Twitter. As of Tuesday evening, the dangerous tweet remains available on the “hellscape” known as Twitter.

          Worse, Musk has announced that he will release the “Fauci files” featuring emails from Twitter’s prior owners that no doubt relate to the moderation of content attacking Dr. Fauci. I wonder if Musk believes his embrace of conspiracy theories and hate speech is worth the $200 billion in decline in his personal wealth caused, in part, by his erratic behavior as Twitter’s new owner.

         As we face another surge from a new Covid variant, we must again condemn anti-vaccine propaganda whenever we encounter it. The anti-vaxxers’ use of Hamlin’s tragic injury to spread disinformation is a good place to rejoin the effort to spread the truth about the efficacy and safety of Covid vaccines.

          Talk to you tomorrow!