The "can’t-stand-the-other-guy vote”

April 26, 2022

[Audio version here]

          Although the domestic political scene is roiling with revelations from Mark Meadows’ texts about January 6th, there were significant developments on the international scene that deserve our attention, as well. Let’s look at international developments first and then return to domestic politics.

International

France re-elects Macron.

          Emmanuel Macron defeated a challenge from the right to win a second term as French President. NATO and Europe heaved a sigh of relief that Macron’s challenger, Marine Le Pen, was defeated. Like many right-wing extremists, Le Pen holds Vladimir Putin in high regard. See, e.g., Salon, Vladimir Putin and Marine Le Pen: The alliance between Russia and the French far-right. Biden’s Chief of Staff, Ron Klain, tweeted that Macron won a second term despite favorability ratings currently lower than Biden’s. Macron’s victory makes a plausible case for an unpopular president defeating a Putin-friendly, NATO-hating opponent when Russia is engaged in expansionist wars.

          Le Pen lost even though her “populist” platform has many parallels to Trump’s MAGA rhetoric—restoring France to former glory, blaming immigrants for society’s ills, resisting globalization, and curling into a fetal position in the hope that the rest of the world will go away. Le Pen managed to garner 42% of the vote, against 58% for Macron. We cannot over-interpret Le Pen’s loss, but you can be darn sure that if Le Pen beat Macron, American political pundits would declare her victory a sure sign that Trump will win in 2024. But the most critical parallel for Biden in 2024 may be one described by Adam Gopnik in The New Yorker:

          The can’t-stand-the-other-guy vote, the grudging hold-your nose-vote, is one way that democracies are supposed to work.          

Secretary of Defense Austin and Secretary of State Blinken announce new US strategy in Ukraine.

          In a significant statement regarding US strategic goals in resisting Putin’s war on Ukraine, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said, “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree it cannot do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” That change in strategy is demonstrated by the increasing lethality of weapons being delivered by the US to Ukraine. The latest shipment of arms from the US includes a new class of drones created specifically for Ukraine’s use in the Donbas region. Aerotime, US to deliver tailor-made kamikaze drones to Ukraine.

Another bad outcome for Putin’s war on Ukraine.

          Putin attacked Ukraine, in part, because he believed NATO was weak and disunified (courtesy of Donald Trump). Today, a Finnish media outlet reported that Sweden has asked that Finland and Sweden apply for NATO membership on the same day, May 16, 2022. See Iltalehti, Finland and Sweden aim to apply to NATO simultaneously in May. Not what Putin wanted, or expected!

Putin may have already begun invasion of Moldova.

          Moldova is a former Soviet Republic that shares a border with Ukraine, but not Russia. One region of Moldova has a substantial population of Russian-speaking residents with sympathies toward Russia. On Monday, explosions rocked the Transnistria area of Moldova, a possible pretext for a Russian invasion. Per the NYTimes, Russia may want to seize control of Transnistria because it will provide a second point of attack on the Ukrainian seaport of Odesa.

Mysterious deaths of Russian oligarchs after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

          Per Newsweek, five Russian oligarchs have met violent deaths since Putin invaded Ukraine. See Newsweek, Every Russian Oligarch Who Has Died Since Putin Invaded Ukraine. Over the last two months, the improbable string of deaths includes five alleged suicides, three of which occurred by hanging. In three instances, the oligarch allegedly killed multiple family members before killing himself.

United States

Supreme Court signals it is ready to undermine separation between church and state.

          The Supreme Court heard argument on Monday in a case involving a football coach who pressured team members to participate in prayer after each game. Ian Millhiser dissects the oral argument, which seemed to portend another victory for the religious right. See Vox, The Supreme Court seems eager to hand a big victory to the Christian right. Per Millhiser,

A majority of the justices seemed eager to shrink this constitutional provision [establishment clause] significantly, though it is unclear just how much they will reduce it. At the very least, it appears likely that public school teachers, coaches, and other school officials will gain some ability to subtly pressure students into religious activity that students, or their parents, may find objectionable.

Judge Holds Trump in contempt for failing to produce documents relating to tax filings.

          A judge held Trump in contempt of court and imposed a $10,000 per day penalty for failing to comply with discovery requests from NY Attorney General Letitia James. See NYTimes, Judge Holds Trump in Contempt Over Documents in New York A.G.’s Inquiry. In a related ruling, the same judge ordered Trump’s appraiser (Cushman & Wakefield) to turn over documents to Letitia James. See Business Insider, Donald Trump’s Appraisers, Cushman & Wakefield, Must Turn Over Documents.

          Michael Cohen testified before Congress that Trump inflated asset values when seeking bank loans but deflated those values to avoid federal and state taxes. The chances are high that Trump has criminal exposure for tax fraud. Too bad Merrick Garland appears to have no interest in this case and has left it up to NY Attorney General Letitia James to pursue a civil case.

Testimony from White House officials and text messages obtained from Mark Meadows bolster criminal exposure of Trump and his advisers.

          The House Select Committee filed a motion for summary judgment against Mark Meadows in a civil case seeking enforcement of the Committee’s subpoena for documents. That filing included testimony showing Mark Meadows was aware (a) of the possibility of violence on January 6th because of false claims that the election was rigged and (b) that the strategy of encouraging states to send alternative slates of electors was not legal. Both disclosures may heighten Meadows’ exposure to criminal prosecution in connection with the insurrection. See WaPo, What Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony means for the Jan. 6 criminal case.

          In addition, CNN obtained 2,319 text messages to Meadows relating to January 6th. Among those messages was a text from Marjorie Taylor Greene that said, “Members” (of Congress) were discussing the imposition of martial law to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. See ABC, Marjorie Taylor Greene discussed martial law to keep Trump in power, text messages show. The House Select Committee likely knows the identity of the “Members” who were urging Trump to impose martial law. Stay tuned!

Was the Secret Service part of a plot to prevent the count of electoral ballots?

          Rep. Jamie Raskin has suggested that Mike Pence refused to be evacuated from the Capitol on January 6th because he feared that the Secret Service would prevent him from counting the electoral votes. The facts surrounding Pence’s refusal to “get into the car” with the Secret Service have been known since July 2021. See Newsweek, (7/16/2021), Mike Pence Refused to Get in Car With Secret Service During Capitol Riot: Book. Per Pence’s Chief of Staff, Marc Short, Pence did not want to create a visual of a “twenty car motorcade” fleeing the Capitol.

          But Raskin’s appearance at Georgetown University last week gave the story new life when Raskin said that the words, “I won’t get into that car” were the “six most chilling words” relating to the coup. If the Secret Service was part of the insurrection plot (by deliberating attempting to remove Pence from the Capitol to prevent him from counting the ballots) that fact must be disclosed by the January 6th Committee and investigated by the DOJ—ASAP!

Concluding Thoughts.

          Amid the incessant predictions of a GOP wave in 2022, Russell Berman explains in The Atlantic why Republicans face an uphill battle in the Senate. See The Atlantic, Mitch McConnell’s Nightmare Midterms Scenario. Berman’s thesis—and the worry of Republican strategists—is that Trump has promoted weak, inexperienced, extremist candidates in senatorial primaries while repelling experienced, moderate candidates who want nothing to do with Trump.

          But even as Berman explains why that scenario spells trouble for Senate Republicans in 2022, he repeats the conventional wisdom that Republicans will win the House. Of course, the same dynamic at work in Senate races could be at work in House elections, as well. GOP incumbents are being forced to run to the extremes of their party as new litmus tests of loyalty to Trump are added daily.

          If GOP candidates for the House continue their effort to emulate Trump’s extremism, we should not underestimate the power of the anti-Trump vote in races where voters may otherwise hold negative views about Democrats. As happened in France with Marcon, the “can’t-stand-the-other-guy vote . . . .  is one way that democracies are supposed to work.” Don’t believe the conventional wisdom about the midterms. No mid-term election has ever been held where the leader of the party out of power is a twice-impeached, coup-plotting, tax-cheating, corrupt narcissist who is at war with significant portions of his own party. Don’t give up! Contest every race up and down the ballot!

          Talk to you tomorrow!