The Biden economic boom.

February 7, 2022

[Audio version here]

          Here is the biggest story you didn’t hear about over the weekend: The January jobs report was good. Very good. It was so good that it exceeded everyone’s expectations—including those of the White House. Given the (apparent) weak jobs reports for November and December, pundits were expecting more of the same in January. Sean Spicer, the truth-challenged press secretary and Dancing with the Stars washout, was practicing the cha‑cha in anticipation of a bleak jobs report. CNN ran a commentary that led with, “The January jobs report is likely to be ugly.” Not only was the January jobs report good, but the Labor Department revised upward the employment statistics for November and December 2021, which had previously suggested a slowing economy.

          After the Friday jobs report, the New York Times led with two front-page stories about the strong performance. See NYTimes, “January 2022 Jobs Report: Strong Gains Show Resilient Economy and Biden Notes Economic Success as Employment and Wages Rise.” How good was the report on the economy? It was so good that Fox News entertainers posing as journalists suggested that the numbers were part of a “White House conspiracy” to sandbag the media. See Daily Beast, Fox News Anchor Suggests White House Conspiracy on Surprisingly Good Jobs Report. When Fox News is reduced to claiming that good news is a conspiracy theory, you know the news is true.

          So, in case you want to discuss the economy with your friends, here are a  few simple, straightforward way to describe what just happened:

• Biden created more jobs in his first year in office than any other president did during their first year.

• Biden created more jobs in his first year in office than Trump created in 4 years—because the economy lost 2.9 million jobs during Trump’s tenure.

• Biden created more jobs in his first year in office than Trump created his first three years in office (before the pandemic recession).

          To be clear, the notion that presidents “create jobs” is a slippery one. But that is how pundits talk about job creation. As long as they choose to do so, let’s make certain that they get the rankings right. Biden outperformed everyone. Period. Full stop.

RNC claims that the insurrectionists were engaged in “legitimate political discourse.”

          Last Friday, the Republican National Committee passed a resolution that claimed that the House Select Committee was seeking to punish people for engaging in “legitimate political discourse.” The Committee is investigating the violent insurrection on January 6th and Trump’s failed coup attempt. I wrote a special newsletter on Friday evening dedicated to that topic. In case you missed it, the link is here: Declaring the “time of death” for the GOP.

          The RNC resolution illustrates the death grip Trump has on the GOP. The former president’s insistence on pushing the Big Lie has been creating tensions and fissures in the party as it heads into congressional midterms. Trump’s repeated insistence that Mike Pence could have awarded the election to Trump finally provoked Pence to declare that “Trump is wrong.” Oddly, that prompted Trump to attack “Old Crow Mitch McConnell”. Pence’s statement provoked a vigorous defense of Trump from Matt Gaetz, Steve Bannon, and Roger Stone—a rogues gallery of felons, targets of grand jury investigations, and recipients of presidential pardons.  

          The RNC then poured salt on the fresh wounds created by the Trump-Pence feud by claiming that violent insurrectionists were engaged in “legitimate political discourse.” Respectable voices in the GOP condemned the resolution. See The Hill, Murkowski criticizes RNC calling Jan. 6 attack’ legitimate political discourse’. The RNC Chairperson attempted to walk back the resolution over the weekend, to no avail. The damage has been done, and the RNC effectively joined the insurrectionists. See Charlie Sykes writing in The Bulwark, The RNC Joins the Insurrection. (“The Republican National Committee is fully embracing the Trumpian retconning of Jan. 6th as a peaceful protest and, in the process, has gone all-in on the insurrection itself”.)

          The RNC’s resolution was the death rattle of the Republican Party. We should not gloat or relent because of the internecine warfare sundering the Republican Party. But we should recognize as we move into 2022 that the GOP faces unique challenges that will give Democrats a fighting chance to beat the conventional wisdom that the party in power loses seats in midterms. Republican candidates will be running on a record of supporting violent insurrection and a failed coup. That platform will appeal to some Republican voters, but it will repel the strong majority of Americans. So, let’s not be distracted by the car-wreck that is the GOP, and instead double down on registration, turnout, voter protection, and improving our messaging.

North Carolina Supreme Court invalidates Republican redistricting maps.

          The good news is that North Carolina Supreme Court rejected congressional redistricting maps drawn by the GOP-controlled legislature. The better news is that the N.C. Supreme Court based its decision on the North Carolina constitution—making a reversal by the U.S. Supreme Court much less likely.

          The N.C. case illustrates (again) that Republicans pushed gerrymandering to the limit in 2012 and have little room left to create more unfairness in 2022 without resorting to blatantly racist or outrageously partisan maps. For example, the GOP plan in North Carolina created eleven (11) GOP districts and three (3) Democratic districts—giving Republicans an advantage in 78% districts (11 of 14). That allocation of Republican-leaning districts is contrary to party affiliation in North Carolina, where Democrats represent the largest number of registered voters at 36%, while 33% of registered voters are unaffiliated, and only 30% are registered Republicans. Despite the fact that Republicans are ranked behind “no preference” and represent only 30% of registered voters, the GOP created a gerrymandered map with 78% of districts with a Republican advantage!  

          Although it is impossible to draw district lines that perfectly match voter registration, the mismatch between a state in which Democrats are the largest party by registration but are crammed into three districts with a Democratic advantage is obscene. The GOP-proposed maps would eliminate two existing Democratic-advantaged districts despite the fact that the substantial growth in N.C. in the last decade has been concentrated in the metropolitan areas that are heavily Democratic. A fair map would increase the number of Democratic-leaning seats in N.C., not reduce that number. Let’s hope that the judges to whom this matter has been referred will finally draw a map that fairly represents the Democratic advantage in North Carlina.

Arizona legislature halts bill that would have allowed the legislature to overturn the will of the people

          Last week, I wrote Arizona Republicans had introduced a bill in the legislature that would have given the legislature the power to overturn an election for any reason or no reason. That bill would have effectively stripped citizens in Arizona of their constitutionally protected right to vote. Thankfully, the prospect of Arizona becoming the first state to officially disenfranchise its citizens was beyond the pale for Republican Speaker in the Arizona legislature. See Business Insider, Ariz. GOP House Speaker Curbs Bill Allowing Legislators to Overturn Election Results. Good! But to ensure that Republicans do not attempt to resurrect the bill, Democrats must flip two seats in either chamber of the Arizona legislature in 2022.

Volunteer to be an election observer.

          If you are worried about voter suppression in 2022, you can help ensure a fair election by volunteering as a poll observer. The simple act of having a watchful pair of eyes at a polling location can help everyone remain on their best behavior. As an observer, you aren’t expected to intervene or solve problems—merely report them if they occur. The hours are long, and the pay is lousy (read: non-existent in most cases) but the value to democracy is priceless. If you can’t travel to a polling location to serve as an observer, you can volunteer to staff a voter protection hotline. Answering questions and providing information can empower voters to navigate obstacles on their own.

          How can you volunteer? Call your state or county Democratic Party. Or you can email the DNC at vopro@dnc.org, and someone will get back to you promptly. (I know because I tested the email!) Other organizations are helping to coordinate voter protection hotlines. Check out VoteRiders and Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. Many other worthy organizations provide election observing and hotline opportunities, so please don’t be bashful about letting me know if your organization is looking for volunteers to serve as poll observers or hotline staffers.

          We need tens of thousands of poll observers to help ensure a fair election in 2022. During the Today’s Edition Podcast this weekend, I interviewed Maya Maravilla of the DNC (Midwest Regional Desk for Civic Engagement and Voter Protection). Maya has been volunteering as a poll worker since 2016 and describes poll watching with equal parts enthusiasm, inspiration, and humor. Maya offered one of her most important observations when discussing the possibility of sitting idly for hours watching citizens exercise their right to vote. Maya said, “When democracy is boring, that’s a good thing!” So, let’s help keep democracy boring—volunteer as a poll worker or hotline staffer to help keep everyone on their best behavior!

Concluding Thoughts.

          I joined the Southern Minnesota Democratic Strategy Group over the weekend to make a few remarks. As usual, the discussion among Democrats turned to “How can we improve our messaging?” A participant in the meeting (also a newsletter reader) suggested that the Democratic Party adopt a campaign slogan from former Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone, “We all do better when we all do better.” That resonated with me, and I share it with Democrats everywhere to explain why the Democratic agenda is in the interest of all voters: Because Democrats seek to lift everyone up in the belief that everyone benefits when that happens.

          Jessica Craven at Chop Wood, Carry Water linked to a memo by two political strategists (Mike Lux & Celinda Lake) that is a “must-read” for every Democrat who is nervous about the upcoming midterms. The memo is titled, Why Democrats Can Win in 2022, and How We Will Do It. I highly recommend that every Democrat read this excellent memo. The first portion analyzes the political landscape and rightly concludes that Democrats can win. Some themes will be familiar to readers of this newsletter, such as “Republicans have profound liabilities going into this election year” and “the House redistricting process looks like it won’t be as bad overall as was previously feared.” The authors make other points that I should address more often, such as,

Democrats are the majority party in this country. We have won more votes than the Republicans in seven of the last eight elections.

          The second portion of the memo deals with messaging. The proposed messages and strategies are simple, direct, and effective. If you are leading a group of Democratic activists, I highly recommend reading this memo for ideas. I don’t have the space or time to do the memo justice but let me borrow a quote from the memo that I wish I had written: “We don’t have time to be discouraged.” With nine months remaining before the midterms, being discouraged is a luxury we cannot afford. We have plenty of reason to be hopeful, and no reason to be complacent. Time is short and we can win, but only if we engage in the hard work of retail politics—registration, turnout, and voter protection. We succeeded in all three tasks in 2018 and 2020. We can do so again, this time in 2022. Let’s get to work!

          Talk to you tomorrow!