Terrific economic news for all Americans
February 3, 2024
Friday brought a stunningly good report on increases in jobs, wages, and productivity. The report was so good that a Biden Twitter account released the Fox News commentary on the jobs report as a campaign ad! See @BidenWins, Trump Senior Advisor Larry Kudlow explains how the Biden economy deserves more credit, even from Conservatives. In short,
Inflation-adjusted wages were up 4.5%
the economy added 353,000 new jobs in January (non-farm payroll)
prior two months jobs report revised upward by 126,000
worker productivity rose 2.7%
President Biden also tweeted an important metric for Black workers:
New economic analysis shows that under President Biden, the Black unemployment rate was under 6% for a full year. That's the lowest Black unemployment in history.
The media is no longer able to sustain its negative narrative about the economy, finally admitting that President Biden’s stewardship deserves credit for the good economic news. See Politico, Biden’s economy keeps messing up Trump’s message.
Per Politico,
[W]ith the risk of a recession seeming to recede, even Trump’s close allies acknowledge it’s getting tough to tell voters a bleak story about the economy. And though far from certain, it’s now possible that the nation’s economic health could become an electoral asset for Biden in an unexpected way.
For an overview of the economic reports released on Friday, see CNN, The US economy added 353,000 jobs in January, starting off 2024 with a bang.
In yesterday’s Comment section, a reader (Theressa) posted an informative and fun quiz by the Washington Post Editorial Board, Opinion | Mad at Biden over the economy? Take our quiz. (Accessible to all.) The takeaway: the media narrative about the “Biden economy” is wrong. Check it out.
Let’s not lose sight of the most important point: Joe Biden isn’t trying to achieve outstanding economic metrics just to gain partisan advantage or bragging rights. He is trying to improve the lives of all Americans by increasing employment and wages. He is succeeding. During Biden’s tenure, the economy has created 14.8 million new jobs—which has made a material difference in the lives of tens of millions of Americans.
Developments regarding the killing of American soldiers in Jordan
Fallen soldiers returned to US soil
On Friday, President Biden and Dr. Jill Biden witnessed the return of the bodies of Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, Specialist Kennedy Ladon Sanders and Specialist Breonna Alexsondria Moffett to American soil.
The return took place in the context of a ceremony known as the “dignified transfer.” The NYTimes published moving photos and an essay describing the event. See NYTimes, In One Image | The Dignified Transfer. (Accessible to all.)
Before the ceremony, President Biden and Jill Biden met with the families in a private room “closed off to the news media and the public, where they could mourn together.”
US strikes Iran-backed militias
On Friday, the US launched airstrikes against 85 targets in Iraq and Syria controlled by Iranian-backed militia groups. Per reporting from the Associated Press,
The massive barrage of strikes hit more than 85 targets at seven locations, including command and control headquarters, intelligence centers, rockets and missiles, drone and ammunition storage sites and other facilities that were connected to the militias or the IRGC’s Quds Force, the Guard’s expeditionary unit that handles Tehran’s relationship with and arming of regional militias.
President Biden issued a statement after the attacks, saying,
Today, at my direction, U.S. military forces struck targets in Iraq and Syria that the IRGC and affiliated militia use to attack U.S. forces.
We do not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world.
But to all those who seek to do us harm: We will respond.
According to statements by National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, the retaliation against the militias will take place over several weeks “in tiers.”
Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis files opposition to motion to disqualify.
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis filed an opposition on Friday to the motion to disqualify her and her entire staff from the RICO case against Trump and nineteen other defendants. 100% of the headlines about the filing say, “DA Willis admits personal relationship.” While that fact is true, it distorts the evidence submitted by Willis—which contradicts nearly all of the allegations made by one of Trump's co-defendants.
Willis’s brief is here: State's Opposition to Motion to Dismiss. If you want to know the factual basis for her opposition, I urge you to read the affidavit of Nathan Wade, which begins at page 31 of 176 of the PDF file. In short, Wade and Willis began their relationship after Willis hired Wade, they shared expenses when they travelled together, Wade was eminently qualified to serve as one of four special counsels, Wade was paid far below his usual hourly rate, and Wade signed a contract identical to the other special counsel.
Based on prior reader feedback about this story, it is clear that many readers are angry and disappointed with D.A. Willis. Those feelings are understandable. The question is whether there is a legal or ethical consequence that should follow from the relationship. That is a judicial determination that should be made on the evidence, not emotion.
Based on the evidence to date, it appears that there is no basis to disqualify D.A. Fani Willis.
The secret to Democratic success in special elections: Turnout
In an analysis that is both affirming and annoying, Nate Cohn of the NYTimes (not Nate Silver) examines voter turnout in special elections. At root, it appears that Cohn is trying to justify why his generally negative view of Democratic prospects does not align with the continued success of Democrats in special elections. But Cohn nonetheless tries to discern the reason for Democratic strength.
The article is here: Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats’ Success in Special Elections (Accessible to all.)
Cohn’s central conclusion is this:
The source of Democratic strength in specials over the last year, our analysis confirms, is therefore quite simple: It’s about turnout.
Biden voters have turned out at higher rates than Trump voters in special elections, according to estimates based on voter file data. This turnout edge explains the entirety of the Democratic performance overall.
The conclusion that higher Democratic turnout in special elections both feels right and should be viewed as a source of strength for Democrats heading into November 2024.
As Cohn observes, the Democratic edge cannot be explained merely by demographics. There is something more: The Resistance.
Per Cohn:
How is it possible for Democrats to have such a sizable turnout advantage? It’s not just demographics. . . . Across every demographic category, Democrats seem to do better among high-turnout voters than demographically identical low-turnout voters.
This kind of deep advantage is perhaps most easily explained by something like what used to be called “the Resistance” — liberal voters becoming extraordinarily motivated to defeat Republicans since the election of Mr. Trump and again in the wake of Roe’s overturning.
Opportunities for reader engagement.
Join me and David Pepper at an event for Giving Circles on Tuesday!
On Tuesday, February 6 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern / 5:00 p.m. Pacific, Giving Circles / The States Project will host a discussion with David Pepper and Robert Hubbell on State Legislatures, The 2024 Elections and the Power of Giving Circles! RSVP here.
This event is co-hosted by three States Project Giving Circles: Downtown Nasty Women Social Group, Purple To Blue, and The Wednesday Group. Right now TSP is offering a match for all donations to any TSP Giving Circle! Double your donation by joining a Giving Circle today to help flip state legislatures in swing states!
Join Sister District on Wednesday to learn about grassroots organizations working on-the-ground year-round to connect with voters. See the note from Sister District:
Please join Sister District Project on Wednesday, February 7th at 5:00 PM. Pacific / 8:00 PM Eastern for a virtual fundraiser for grassroots organizations in Michigan and Wisconsin. We will be hearing from representatives from We the People Michigan, Mothering Justice, Citizen Action of Wisconsin, and WISDOM-Wisconsin. These organizations work throughout the year in their regions to connect with voters on issues of local and national importance. Note that while this is a fundraising event, donations are not required to register or attend.
Sister District organizes to win elections and build progressive infrastructure to create enduring power in state legislatures. States matter more than ever in fighting for representative democracy, abortion rights, environmental protections, and in implementing common sense gun laws. In 2024, with most eyes focused on the national election, the importance of engaging voters up and down the ballot has become all the more critical. Volunteers across the country can help by phonebanking, texting, canvassing, and fundraising. You can find out about volunteering opportunities where you live here.
Concluding Thoughts.
The implication of Nate Cohn’s begrudging acknowledgment of the power of The Resistance is that its effectiveness is supposedly limited to “special elections.” In Cohn’s view, everything will go back to “normal” in the 2024 general election—and old voting patterns will work against Democrats.
Here’s a news flash for Nate Cohn (and other pollsters): November 2024 is a special election. It is an election in which an aspiring dictator who attempted a coup and incited an insurrection seeks re-election. It doesn’t get any more special than that.
Democracy is on the ballot and is represented by a decent, successful president who seeks to represent the interests of all Americans. So, too, are issues relating to reproductive liberty, healthcare, voting equality, the climate crisis, LGBTQ equality, and the rule of law.
Anyone who believes Democrats will not turn out in historic numbers in November isn’t paying attention. The pollsters should look up from their computer screens every once in a while and try to understand what is happening in a country they see only in pixelated data generated by algorithms.
Pollsters and MAGA extremists have made the mistake of underestimating the determination and passion of “the Resistance,” a group described by Nate Cohn as “liberal voters becoming extraordinarily motivated to defeat Republicans.”
That’s you. You are The Resistance. You should be proud of everything you have accomplished and confident you can repeat that success in 2024. It won’t be easy and will require every ounce of effort we can give. But we have beat MAGA extremism before. We can do it again.
Talk to you on Monday!
Happy Saturday morning everyone!
Please do not direct comments AT one another; feel to disagree with comments all you want. But don't make it personal.
I have deleted three comments this morning.
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Dear Robert Hubbell,
Some months ago, I stumbled upon your work on Substack. I am so glad I did! The 'noise' and disinformation from media and MAGA, among others, are getting louder with each passing day as we approach the election of Nov 2024. The odious "45" is getting desperate now, which translates to his becoming ever more dangerous, in my view. And it is only February!
I just want to communicate to you how important your commentary is to me. You encourage and inspire me to remain engaged in the resistance. Thank you! I especially like these thoughts from your newsletter today:
"Here’s a news flash for Nate Cohn (and other pollsters): November 2024 IS a special election. It is an election in which an aspiring dictator who attempted a coup and incited an insurrection seeks re-election. It doesn’t get any more special than that. Democracy is on the ballot and is represented by a decent, successful president who seeks to represent the interests of all Americans. So, too, are issues relating to reproductive liberty, healthcare, voting equality, the climate crisis, LGBTQ equality, and the rule of law. Anyone who believes Democrats will not turn out in historic numbers in November isn’t paying attention."
I agree 100% ! Thank you for your work! -Nancy Becker