Supporting Biden as he navigates dangerous waters.

March 11 2022

[No audio version; I am on “grandparent’s duty” tonight.]

          As we approach the third week of Putin’s war against Ukraine, it is clear that the depth and scale of suffering will increase exponentially in the coming days. U.S. intelligence continues to signal that Putin will use chemical weapons against civilian populations—a crime against humanity that will forever separate Russia from the civilized world. Food shortages are taking hold in major cities, inflicting widespread suffering and death that will surpass the toll inflicted by bullets and rockets. There is no logical stopping point to the exodus of refugees that already dwarfs every crisis since WWII. Putin’s war against Ukraine is on track to become the greatest human tragedy in seventy-five years.

          As always, the most important aspect of this tragedy is the suffering of the Ukrainian people. Domestic political considerations pale in comparison and matter, if at all, only to the extent they guide the U.S. in making wise policy decisions to assist Ukraine while avoiding a broader conflict.

          As the suffering of the Ukrainian people becomes ever more dire, pressure from the media, the public, and Congress to intervene directly will increase correspondingly. Polling organizations are asking the American public whether the U.S. should impose a no-fly zone—without informing the respondents that a no-fly zone would involve shooting down Russian planes and (possibly) starting WWIII. Congress is pressuring Biden to facilitate the transfer of twenty-eight outdated and underpowered MiG-29 fighters that military experts say would have little effect if they were delivered to Ukraine. And the media continues to give non-stop coverage to “experts” whose expertise appears to be second-guessing Biden from the comfort of their consequence‑free ivory towers.

          The confluence of the profound suffering of the Ukrainian people and the limited ability of NATO to respond militarily is both maddening and deeply depressing. Once again, I am hearing from readers who say they have “turned off the news” until this crisis has passed. And as the images of suffering on television become unbearable, the impulse to urge Biden to engage in rash and irresponsible decisions may erode confidence in his handling of Putin’s war on Ukraine. We must not let that happen. We must remain engaged so that we can support Biden as he steers the world through dangerous shoals.

          A major premise of the arm-chair generals who are second-guessing Biden is that Putin will not resort to nuclear deterrence in response to a conventional attack. Not true. Two years ago, Putin announced a doctrine that said Russia reserved the right to use nuclear deterrence in the case of “aggression against Russia with conventional weapons.” See The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, Read the fine print: Russia’s nuclear weapon use policy.

          In his speech two days after invading Ukraine, Putin warned that any country that “stood in Russia’s way” would suffer “consequences such as they have never seen in their history.” You don’t have to be a mind-reader to understand Putin’s allusion to nuclear retaliation. But experts agree that is exactly what Putin was threatening. See Foreign Policy, Putin’s Nuclear Bluff. (“But low risk is not the same as no risk, and many Western analysts believe that the Kremlin is more willing to use nuclear weapons than it publicly suggests.)

          So, when friends and family members say Biden is weak for not instituting a no-fly zone or for opposing delivery of the MiG-29s, you may want to work into the conversation that Putin has said a conventional attack on Russia is grounds for nuclear retaliation. Avoiding the urge to engage in rash action with catastrophic consequences is not a sign of weakness but of strength, foresight, and intellect.

          But even against the most logical and compelling arguments for avoiding direct confrontation with Russia, the urge to demand that Biden “do something” will be overwhelming. But Biden has done more to punish Russia than any other U.S. president. The sanctions are beginning to work. See this article in The Daily Beast, Even Russian State T.V. Is Pleading With Putin to Stop the War. The Institute for International Finance predicted that Russia’s GDP will shrink by 15% in 2022—a staggering drop. In response, Putin has threatened to “nationalize” western businesses to prevent their flight from Russia—a step that will doom investment in Russia for decades.

          But if the sanctions work, it will take months or years to inflict sufficient pain to loosen Putin’s grip on Russia. In the meantime, it will be unbearable, heartbreaking, and rage-inducing to watch the slaughter of innocent Ukrainians. Feelings of helplessness and despair are understandable in such situations, but we must be disciplined enough to keep a clear view of the consequences of escalating the conflict. However horrific the war in Ukraine is now, it could get worse. A lot. For the entire world. We must support Biden as he navigates this crisis.

Merrick Garland’s statement on the January 6th Investigation.

          On Thursday, Merrick Garland said the following in NPR interviewregarding the DOJ’s investigation of the events of January 6th:  

          This is the most urgent investigation in the history of the Justice Department. It’s the most resource intensive. We’ve thrown 70 prosecutors from the District of Columbia and another 70 from around the country. Every FBI office, almost every U.S. Attorney’s Office in the country is working on this matter.

          We are not avoiding cases that are political or cases that are controversial or sensitive. What we are avoiding is making decisions on a political basis, on a partisan basis.

          Several readers asked if Garland’s comments changed my view about Garland’s inaction regarding Trump. It does not. It seems plain that Garland’s description of a sprawling investigation indicates that the DOJ is tracking down individuals who assaulted the Capitol. That has nothing to do with investigating Trump.

          Garland’s claim that he is avoiding “making decisions on a partisan basis” is insulting to those demanding that Garland investigate Trump for committing crimes that unfolded in public and are supported by overwhelming evidence. Urging Garland to do his job is not a “partisan” demand. It emanates from the oath Garland took to “protect and defend” the Constitution.

          Garland said at another point in the interview that the DOJ was following the standard methodology of starting at the bottom and working its way up the chain. While that may be an acceptable standard operating procedure, it makes no sense when Trump is continuing his efforts to overturn the 2020 election as we speak and is actively planning to overturn the 2024 election. Given the urgency of the threat to democracy, Garland can and should break out of the tradition-bound, glacial techniques that are not responsive to the emergency faced by the nation.

The Texas voter suppression law worked—it suppressed the votes of eligible voters.

          Texas Republicans passed S.B.1 to make it harder for people to vote by mail. The strategy worked. Texas election officials rejected a large percentage of vote-by-mail requests (and ballots) because of arcane and confusing voter I.D. requirements. See Talking Points Memo, Texas Republicans’ Voting Law Disenfranchised Thousands Of Voters.

          It appears that the new law resulted in a rejection rate of 17% of applications for mail ballots across all Texas counties. That is bad. Very. But Democrats should keep the scale of the problem and the likely party affiliation of the rejected applicants in mind before they assume that Democrats will be prejudiced by the debacle.

          First, although the percentage rates of rejection are high, the relative number of ballots in question is small—after accounting for “cured” ballots. In Travis County, it appears that 896 mail ballots were rejected but not cured—which is approximately 1/10th of 1% (i.e., 0.001) of the 850,000 registered voters in Travis County.

          Second, it is likely that the majority of ballots rejected were cast by Republicans. Older voters were particularly hard hit by the I.D. requirements, and the GOP tends to dominate in that demographic. We should take no pleasure in that fact. Voter suppression is bad, no matter whose votes are being suppressed. My point is that Democrats should not assume that they were disproportionately affected by S.B.1.

          Finally, we now know the problems created by S.B.1 and we have time to fix them! Shame on us if we can’t track down every voter whose ballot was rejected and help them to register for the 2022 midterms.

Human Rights Campaign rejects Disney donation relating to ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill in Florida.

          As the Florida legislature was preparing to pass the “Don’t Say Gay” bill, the Disney Corporation remained conspicuously silent. After it became clear that the bill would pass, employees, customers, and shareholders of Disney began a letter-writing campaign to force Disney to oppose the bill. The campaign worked, and at the annual shareholder meeting, the CEO of Disney claimed that the corporation worked in the background to oppose the bill. The CEO promised to take a public stand against the bill in light of its imminent passage. That public stand amounted to calling Governor DeSantis and asking him not to sign the bill. The CEO also promised a $5 million donation to the Human Rights Campaign, which advocates for LGBTQ rights. See HuffPo, Human Rights Campaign Rejects Disney’s Donation Pledge Amid ‘Don’t Say Gay’ Fallout

          The Human Rights Campaign turned down the $5 million donation, saying that Disney had not done enough to stop the bill. Indeed, it appears that the CEO was not being straightforward about Disney’s “stealth” opposition to the bill. After the CEO called DeSantis, the governor's office said that “that was the first time we heard from Disney about the bill.”

          Kudos to the HRC for not allowing itself to be “bought off” by Disney. The company remained mute as Florida passed a law saying that some of Disney’s employees are second-class citizens. Until major corporations stand up to politicians like DeSantis, those politicians will continue to pick on vulnerable groups to pander to voters. Keep up the pressure on Disney—and other organizations that fail to live up to their commitments to support LGBTQ people.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Putin’s war on Ukraine will test our resolve, stamina, and discipline as no other event in recent history. If the events in Ukraine make you feel unsettled and anxious, you are not alone. Hundreds of millions of Americans feel exactly the same way. Suffering in silence is neither brave nor healthy. As you reach out to help the people of Ukraine, remember to reach out to family, friends, neighbors, and strangers who would welcome a kind gesture and reassuring word. Let peace begin with us.

          Stay strong! Talk to you on Monday!