I finished writing this newsletter early (3:00 PM Pacific) and scheduled it to be sent automatically at 9:00 PM. This newsletter may, therefore, omit major stories that unfolded after 3:00 PM Pacific. By way of explanation, I am on the road for a one-day turnaround to the remote mountain community in Sequoia National Park where our cabin is located. I am president and board member of a small mutual water company that distributes water to three dozen cabins. The temperatures this weekend will drop below freezing for consecutive days, so I need to help drain and close the water system for the winter to avoid damage to tanks, valves, and pipes. Thanks for your understanding.
Speaker Mike Johnson, the day after.
I received many emails from readers who were anxious about the election of Mike Johnson and unpersuaded by my attempt to calm fears in yesterday’s newsletter. So, I will make another attempt. This time, however, I refer you to a truly excellent article by Dennis Aftergut in Verdict, Five Ways Mike Johnson Will Help Make Hakeem Jeffries Speaker in 2025. If you are worried about Mike Johnson (and even if you are not), I urge you to read this article to help put Johnson’s election into perspective.
Aftergut begins by quoting Dan Pfeiffer, who served as President Obama’s communications director:
[I]f Democrats could design in a lab the perfect candidate to run against, that person would look a lot like Mike Johnson.
I won’t repeat all Aftergut’s analysis, but let’s look at two issues: Reproductive liberty and gun safety.
Every election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade has demonstrated that the GOP attempt to eliminate reproductive liberty is the greatest area of weakness for Republicans at the ballot box. So, what did they do? They just elected as Speaker the most radical opponent in their ranks to women’s autonomy over their bodies, healthcare, and family planning. In the aftermath of Dobbs, Democrats have consistently won special elections in battleground states. See The Hill, Democrats keep winning special elections in battleground states. That trend portends well for Democrats in 2024. As Dan Pfeiffer said, if you created a candidate in a lab who was most likely to cause Republican losses in 2024, that person is Mike Johnson.
Second, Johnson was elected on the day of the mass killings in Lewiston, Maine. He had nothing to say other than “Prayer is appropriate in a time like this, that the evil can end and this senseless violence can stop.” No call for legislation. No call for background checks. No call for assault weapons bans. Nothing. His silence and inaction are complicity.
Speaking of complicity, Johnson met last week with members of “Women for Gun Rights,” a meeting that Johnson proudly featured on Twitter with a note that they discussed “safeguarding our Second Amendment rights.”
Got that? Johnson is offering to safeguard the Second Amendment but offers nothing but prayer to protect future victims from death and injury by weapons of war. He—and all Republicans—are on the wrong side of this issue. Per a Pew Research Center survey, 61% of Americans say that it is too easy to obtain a gun. More importantly, 73% of non-owners say it is too easy to own a gun—and non-owners make up 70% of the US population. I will let you do the math, but those numbers mean that gun safety advocates should win 100% of elections in which enhancing gun laws is a significant issue. Mike Johnson is the worst representative on this critical issue at a moment of crisis in America.
And I haven’t even mentioned Ukraine, having a functioning federal government, and choosing leaders by elections rather than violence as issues where Johnson is weak. But you can check out those topics in Aftergut’s article.
I also received notes from readers who are worried about articles or social media posts that say things like, “Mike Johnson is an election denier; he could interfere in the 2024 presidential election.” See, e.g., New US House speaker tried to help overturn the 2020 election, raising concerns about the next one - The Boston Globe. (Behind a paywall.)
Mike Johnson’s election denialism makes him a threat to democracy and unfit to serve in the House. Nothing I am about to say should be viewed as excusing or minimizing that threat. But the facts suggest that Johnson will be limited in what he can do to interfere in the 2024 election.
Let’s assume for a moment that Johnson is able to hold onto his job as Speaker for more than a few months. He has been elected as a Speaker in the 118th Congress, which ends on January 3, 2025. When the 118th Congress ends, Johnson’s term as Speaker also ends.
The 119th Congress will be sworn in on January 3, 2025. The strong likelihood is that Hakeem Jeffries will be the Speaker of the 119th Congress. But even if Republicans maintain control of the House, Mike Johnson would need to be re-elected as Speaker on January 3, 2025. Those two contingencies alone make it unlikely that Johnson will be Speaker in the 119th Congress.
The electoral ballots for the 2024 election will be counted on January 6, 2025—three days after the current Congress (and Mike Johnson’s tenure) end. As noted above, Mike Johnson probably won’t be Speaker in the 119th Congress, which will count the electoral ballots from the 2024 election.
But even if Johnson miraculously survives as Speaker through the end of the 118th Congress and Republicans maintain control of House after the 2024 elections, the officer charged with presiding over the count is the person who is Vice President on January 6, 2025—i.e., Kamala Harris. See Article 2 Section 1 Clause 3 | US Constitution.
The first term of President Biden and V.P. Harris extends through January 20, 2025, so Kamala Harris will preside over the electoral ballot count on January 6, 2025, no matter which candidate wins the 2024 election. See Twentieth Amendment | US Constitution.
Finally, the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 eliminates alleged ambiguities seized upon by John Eastman, Ken Chesebro, and Trump to argue that the electoral ballots cast by the electors can be set aside by state legislatures. For example, the Act provides that the Vice President has no power to “determine, accept, reject, or otherwise adjudicate or resolve disputes over the proper list of electors, the validity of electors, or the votes of electors.” Moreover, objections may be made only in writing signed jointly by one-fifth of the Senate and one-fifth of the House, and then only to object that (a) the electors of a state were not lawfully certified and (b) that their votes were not “regularly given.”
I hope the above explanation helps to allay concerns about whether Mike Johnson can interfere in the 2024 presidential election.
Concluding Thoughts.
The media has started a new anti-Biden narrative: “Biden is going to lose in 2024 because of his support for Israel.” The media even have polls to back up their dire predictions. It is true that Democrats are not of one mind about Israel and there is no doubt that many Democrats disagree with Biden’s strong support for Israel. But the alternative is Trump, who similarly supports Israel but is Islamophobic.
Remember Trump’s “Muslim ban?” Trump is promising to bring it back if he is reelected. See The Guardian, Trump vows to expand Muslim ban and bar Gaza refugees if he wins presidency. (“Trump pledged to bar the entry of refugees from Gaza fleeing Israel’s retaliatory strikes after the surprise 7 October attack.”) So, what the media is overlooking is this: Joe Biden’s negative ratings may be increasing because of his support for Israel but voting against Joe Biden because of that support will make things worse for those who support Palestinians, Gazans, and Muslims.
It may take a minute for the logical force of that thought process to sink in, but Trump will help reinforce the point—as he did on October 17 in Iowa (as reported in The Guardian, above), where he equated all Gazans (and most Muslims) with terrorists.
Moreover, anyone who is really paying attention to what Biden is saying—as opposed to reacting to sloganeering on social media—should be surprised by how strongly Biden is advocating for the right of self-determination for Palestinians and their right to live in peace. I again urge people to read Biden’s remarks yesterday at the joint press conference with the Prime Minister of Australia (which are, predictably, being ignored by the media because they contradict the simplistic storyline of “Biden’s strong support for Israel is costing him support”). See Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia in Joint Press Conference | The White House.
Do not panic over polling and analysis that claim Biden is “in trouble” because of his support for Israel. He would be “in trouble” no matter what position he took in the dispute. The polling and performative handwringing by pundits are non-stories. But the fundamental disagreements among Democrats about policy in the Middle East are substantive and deserve to be addressed.
I believe that when Biden’s views get a full hearing and are contrasted to those of Trump, Biden’s views will be recognized as fairer and more likely to lead to peace than those of Trump. In the meantime, it is fair to try to convince Biden and other Democrats to change or calibrate their views. Threatening to withhold support for Biden in 2024 is counter-productive and self-defeating. Let’s not do that.
Talk to you tomorrow!
Thank you Robert for another brilliant and balanced post. The MAGA bunch could not have chosen a more "exemplary" MAGA conservative to stand up and say it all---he will be a punching bag (I hope). He will reveal what they are---he's Gym Jordan in a suit, all slicked up for Prime Time; soft demeanor, rotten interior. Wise words on Biden. He is trying to thread a difficult needle and keep moral balance (there is NO moral balance, or morality, in the shell of the GOP). Biden is keeping the big picture, along with the small details, in view. Hope your trip to some beautiful country was both a pleasure and a success.
Another Hubbell lullaby to soothe and calm his anxious readers. (We need the help. Thank you, Robert!)