Speaker for a day.

October 25, 2023

          It is difficult to describe the shambolic state of the Republican Party on its 21st day without a Speaker of the House, so I will borrow a description that William Saletan penned in 2016: “The GOP is a failed state. Donald Trump is its warlord.” (Due credit to Josh Marshall, who used that phrase to open his Editor’s Blog today.) The truth of Saletan’s insight was demonstrated after Tom Emmer was forced out as “Speaker designee” after only four hours. Per Talking Points Memo, Trump bragged about taking down Emmer:

By Tuesday afternoon Trump called one person close to him with the message, “He’s done. It’s over. I killed him.”

          The GOP is burning through candidates for Speaker at such a furious pace that it makes little sense to review the events of Tuesday in detail. In short, the third-ranking member of the GOP caucus (Tom Emmer) was the “Speaker designee” for a period equal to 1/60th of a “Scaramucci” (the length of time that Anthony Scaramucci served as White House Communications Director under Trump). The GOP caucus immediately retreated behind closed doors so they could scream at one another in private.

          As of Tuesday evening, the GOP caucus is considering such wild ideas as electing “co-speakers” Kevin McCarthy and Jim Jordan (who would be “assistant Speaker), electing a member who has served only three years in the House (Byron Donalds of Florida), or electing Trump as Speaker (not kidding).

          Late Tuesday evening, Republicans nominated Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana as its next sacrificial victim. Johnson lost in previous ballots to Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan, and Tom Emmer. He voted against the certification of the count of electoral ballots in 2020 and took the lead in authoring a brief to the Supreme Court seeking to overturn the election. In other words, he is unfit to serve in Congress, let alone serve as Speaker.

          Johnson “won” the nomination with 128 votes in a secret ballot and then called for a roll-call vote in which no GOP member voted against him. But there were three votes recorded as “present,” and 22 members were absent. On those numbers, it is impossible to know whether Johnson has enough Republican votes to be elected as Speaker on Wednesday.

          Even if Johnson is elected as Speaker by the House, he must pass legislation that will also pass in the Senate. Given Johnson’s extremist views, that outcome has little chance of happening.

          The solution to the GOP impasse has been obvious since the day that Kevin McCarthy was allegedly elected as Speaker in January 2023: Form a bipartisan governing coalition with Democrats. If six Republicans agree to join in common cause with the Democratic caucus, they can elect a Republican Speaker who can keep the government open, pass a budget, and provide defense funding to Ukraine and Israel. We have covered this ground repeatedly in the last month, so I will not tarry. Republicans have wasted 21 days they could have used to pass eleven bills necessary to fund the government for 2023-24.

A day filled with legal developments regarding the 2020 coup attempt.

          Tuesday brought a cascade of significant developments in the effort to hold Trump accountable for the 2020 coup and his lifelong use of corrupt business practices. On any other day, many of these stories would dominate the news. Not on Tuesday. When the news is overwhelming, less is more. So, let’s look at high-level developments.

• Trump's former lawyers continue to plead guilty and agree to testify in future proceedings.

Jenna Ellis, a Trump-aligned lawyer who once described herself as part of an “elite strike team” to pursue election fraud, pleaded guilty to one felony count of aiding and abetting the filing of a false statement. See CNN, Former Trump campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis pleads guilty in Georgia case. She will receive five years of probation and must pay a fine of $5,000.

Ellis made a tearful courtroom apology that should be disregarded as a transparent attempt to shift the blame for her behavior to others—including Rudy Giuliani. She deserves no sympathy, given the gravity of her crimes. But her clear intent to blame Giuliani for peddling false information highlights why the walls are closing in on Trump. When Giuliani, Eastman, and Mark Meadows turn on Trump, he is done. He will be convicted.

• Former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows receives limited immunity, testifies and talks to Jack Smith.

ABC News reported on Tuesday that Mark Meadows received limited immunity from Jack Smith and testified before a grand jury investigating Trump's election interference. ABC also reports that Meadows spoke to Jack Smith’s investigators on two occasions. See Ex-Chief of Staff Mark Meadows granted immunity, tells special counsel he warned Trump about 2020 claims: Sources.

          Mark Meadows’ attorney has called ABC’s reporting “inaccurate.” But, if the reports are true, Meadows’ testimony will help establish that Trump knew he lost the election but promoted lies claiming that he won the election. (Not every claim against Trump requires knowledge of falsity, but that is a topic for another day.)

          Per ABC,

The sources said Meadows informed Smith's team that he repeatedly told Trump in the weeks after the 2020 presidential election that the allegations of significant voting fraud coming to them were baseless . . . .

          The statement by Meadows to the grand jury and investigators contradicted claims in his book that the election was “rigged” and “stolen.” Meadows allegedly acknowledged that the claims in his books were false—complicating his usefulness as a witness for Jack Smith.

          This story will develop over the next several days with more detail and analysis. But it is not good for Trump. Speaking of Trump, read on!

• Trump violates the conditions of release by attempting to intimidate Mark Meadows.

Apart from the gag order issued by Judge Chutkan, Trump was granted pretrial release on conditions that prohibit attempts to influence or intimidate witnesses. See Order Setting Conditions of Release | United States v. Trump. (“It is a crime . . . to intimidate or attempt to intimidate a witness . . .”)

Trump violated the conditions of his release immediately upon learning that Meadows had been granted limited immunity and spoken to Jack Smith’s investigators. In a rambling post on his vanity social media platform, Trump claimed that “Deranged Jack Smith” had bullied witnesses into saying “BAD THINGS” about Trump in exchange for immunity, and then added:

Some people would make that deal, but they are weaklings and cowards, and so bad for the future of our nation. I don’t think Mark Meadows is one of them. But who knows?

Clearly, Trump is suggesting to Meadows that he is a “weakling or coward” if he has “bad things” to say about Trump. It does not get much more direct than that. Judge Chutkan should hold a hearing on revoking Trump's pre-trial release.

• Trump's former attorney, Michael Cohen, testified that Trump personally directed inflation of assets on financial statements.

Michael Cohen testified in the NY civil action for fraud that Trump directed Cohen and others to inflate assets on Trump's financial statements. See Cohen testifies Trump ballooned assets as cross-examination scrutinizes his credibility | The Hill.

Michael Cohen’s credibility is in tatters. As part of his testimony on Tuesday, he admitted that he lied to a federal judge in his sentencing hearing on tax fraud. That is never a good look, even if Cohen said he did so to end the litigation and put the matter behind him.

But . . . Cohen’s testimony is not necessary to convict Trump. Still, it is corroborative of testimony by other witnesses about Trump's intentional manipulation of his financial statements to mislead banks and insurance companies. So, it was a bad day in court for Trump.

International reaction dominates news on Tuesday regarding Israel’s war on Hamas.

          Israel’s armed forces continued to remain poised on the Gaza border as the US reportedly urged Israel to delay an invasion. In connection with a meeting of the UN Security Council, Secretary-General António Guterres released a statement saying that although the deaths caused by Hamas were “appalling,” they did not justify the “collective punishment” of the Palestinian people. Guterres also said that the Hamas terrorist attack “did not occur in a vacuum.” The full text of Guterres’ remarks is here: UN Press, ‘Even War Has Rules’, Secretary-General Tells Security Council, Demanding All Parties in Middle East Uphold International Humanitarian Law, Unrestricted Aid for Gaza.

          Israel’s UN envoy Gilad Erdan said in response:

The UN Secretary-General, who shows understanding for the campaign of mass murder of children, women, and the elderly, is not fit to lead the UN. I call on him to resign immediately. There is no justification or point in talking to those who show compassion for the most terrible atrocities committed against the citizens of Israel and the Jewish people. There are simply no words.

See Times of Israel, Israel demands UN chief resign after he says Hamas attacks 'did not occur in vacuum.'

          During the meeting of the UN Security Council, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pushed back against a call for a ceasefire at this time, saying that a general ceasefire would “only benefit Hamas.” But he did endorse “humanitarian pauses” to allow for food, water, and fuel to be delivered to Palestinians in Gaza. See Blinken backs Israel at UNSC but says 'humanitarian pauses must be considered' to protect civilians - ABC News.

          Blinken said, in part,

Hamas must cease using [Palestinians] as human shields. Israel must take all possible precautions to avoid harm to civilians. It means food, medicine and water and other assistance must flow into Gaza and to the areas people need them. It means civilians must be able to get out of harm's way. It means humanitarian pauses must be considered for these purposes.

          Blinken also said the following:

First, we all recognize the right and indeed the imperative states to defend themselves against terrorism. That's why we must unequivocally condemn Hamas and its barbaric terrorist attack against Israel.

Parents executed in front of their children. Children executed in front of their parents. We have to ask—indeed, it must be asked—where's the outrage? Where's the revulsion? Where's the rejection? Where's the explicit condemnation of these horrors?

          Russia and Jordan have called for a meeting of the UN General Assembly on Thursday to consider a proposal sponsored by Russia calling for a ceasefire. Resolutions passed by the UN General Assembly are not binding.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Covering the Israeli war against Hamas and the terrorist attacks that provoked Israel’s response has been difficult and exhausting. I have struggled to find the right words to describe the competing viewpoints firmly held by people otherwise joined in common purpose in the US. I have drafted long articles for the newsletter on how we should talk about these difficult issues, only to delete them in recognition that they fell short and would likely provoke irate responses.

          Today, Jessica Craven succeeded where I failed. I recommend her Substack newsletter on 10/24, Chop Wood, Carry Water. I won’t repeat Jessica’s message but will instead urge you to read it—and to accept Jessica’s good faith call for unity in the spirit in which it was offered. I have made similar calls over the last two weeks—calls that resulted in unwarranted personal attacks by a handful of (now) former readers of the newsletter.

          We are all in this together—including the difficult part of finding answers to seemingly intractable problems. If we can talk to one another about those problems, we have a much greater chance of solving them. If we can’t even talk, what hope can we offer to our children and grandchildren that we will make progress toward solutions?

          That lesson has broad application to many parts of our political and personal lives. We may not have control over whether we can achieve solutions, but we can control our willingness to engage in the search for solutions. Given enough time and enough people willing to engage in dialog, we are bound to make progress. In this chaotic world, that may be the best that any single generation can hope for.

          Talk to you tomorrow!