Some perspective on the Texas primary results.

May 28, 2026

Trump dealt a serious blow to the GOP hopes of holding the Senate by helping toxic Ken Paxton defeat incumbent John Cornyn in Texas. Cornyn’s defeat creates an opportunity for James Talarico to be the first Democrat to win a statewide office in Texas since 1994. To be clear, any Democrat running for statewide office in Texas must be viewed as the underdog, but the 2026 midterms present a unique combination of a historically weak president, a corrupt Republican candidate, and a generational talent in James Talarico.

Objectively, Paxton’s win was a positive development for Democrats, but the breathless reporting about the margin of Paxton’s victory could create the misimpression that Trump is getting stronger. Not true. Trump is maintaining his death grip on a shrinking minority, even as he is losing support nationally across all demographics.

Moreover, the turnout in Texas was pathetic, making it dangerous and foolhardy to draw conclusions about the relative strength of Trump, Republicans, and Democrats among Texas voters. Only 8% of Texas registered voters participated in the run-off election.

In some counties, Paxton and Cornyn received votes in the single or double digits. For example, in Zapata County, Paxton garnered 22 votes, while Cornyn won 6 votes, making it appear that Paxton crushed Cornyn 79% to 21%.

See this screenshot from NBC:

Given the tiny number of votes cast in Zapata County, it would be easy for the Law of Small Numbers to lead observers to incorrect conclusions.

For example, the latest available data from the Texas Secretary of State shows there are 7,886 registered voters in Zapata County, meaning the turnout in the Republican runoff—28 voters—was very close to 0%.

Moreover, because Zapata County is predominantly Latino (93%), someone not paying attention to the low turnout could erroneously conclude that Paxton has very strong support in counties with large Latino populations.

Instead, the most reasonable inference to be drawn from the Zapata County results is that in a county that is overwhelmingly Latino, there was virtually no support for Paxton or Cornyn.

Paxton’s crushing defeat of Cornyn occurred the day before more bad news for Trump on the polling front. In Wednesday’s YouGov / Economist poll, Trump's favorability rating reached a new low (34%). In especially bad news for Trump, his approval rating among Independents was 20%. (Independents were the largest voting bloc in 2024).

Key points from the poll:

• Among registered voters, Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say they are more motivated than usual to vote in 2026 (60% vs. 36%)

• Among registered voters, 84% of Democrats say they will definitely vote in the November elections, compared to 73% of Republicans

• Opposition is twice as high as support (49% vs. 24%) for paying $1.776 billion to people who claim to have been mistreated by the federal government.

See Trump hits new low for job approval, congressional corruption and unpopularity, and more: May 22 - 26, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll.

The $1.8 billion slush fund is opposed by a majority of every political party or voting bloc. See chart below:

I have gone on too long to make three simple points: (a) We should view analyses of the Texas primary results with caution and skepticism (including my analysis); (b) Democrats have broad national momentum on every signature issue of the Trump 2024 campaign; and (c) the challenges we face are daunting, but winnable.

Texas is the paradigm: Democrats are underdogs but have a realistic chance at an upset; if we succeed, Democrats could claim control of the Senate in 2026, an unthinkable outcome nine months ago.

There is a lot of political noise in the system, and it will get worse as the midterms approach. Trust your own political compass and instincts. What you see, hear, and feel is real. While we should not over-rely on personal experience and anecdote, pollsters and political operatives are not in touch with what people are feeling at the grocery store and at the gas pump, in town halls and on street corners, and on the job and at the dinner table.

Trump is historically unpopular. Most Americans are outraged and horrified. They are motivated as never before to defend democracy. We have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent.

Trump’s DOJ opens criminal investigation of E. Jean Carroll

E. Jean Carroll obtained two judgments for defamation against Trump when a jury determined that Trump falsely denied that he sexually assaulted Carroll. During one of Carroll’s two civil suits, she was asked during her deposition whether she was paying her counsel’s fees. She truthfully answered, “This is a contingency case.”

Carroll was then asked,

Q. So you’re not paying expenses or anything out of pocket to date; is that correct?

A. I’m not sure about expenses. I have to look that up.

Q. Is anyone else paying your legal fees, Ms. Carroll?

A. No.

All of E. Jean Carroll’s answers appear to have been truthful. On the eve of trial, Carroll recalled learning that her attorneys (not Carroll herself) had secured funding to pay expenses and fees associated with trial preparation. Carroll’s attorneys then informed opposing counsel and the judge of Carroll’s subsequent recollection of the funding arranged by her counsel. The judge allowed additional testimony on the subject and then ruled the issue irrelevant to the trial.

As they say, “That was that.” Until Trump’s DOJ decided to open a criminal investigation of E. Jean Carroll for allegedly lying during her deposition.

Although I do not have all of the facts, I have reviewed the letter by Carroll’s attorneys to Judge Kaplan disclosing Carroll’s subsequent recollection of her attorney’s funding arrangement. Based on that review, it appears the most likely outcome of the criminal investigation is that the US attorneys conducting it will be disciplined or disbarred.

E. Jean Carroll had a contingency fee arrangement with her attorneys, meaning that she owed them no fees unless she obtained a judgment against Trump. In a contingency fee case, the attorneys have significant financial exposure if their client loses because there is no judgment to pay the contingency fees.

Many lawyers seek “litigation funding,” i.e, a loan against their future prospects of recovery. If there is no recovery against the defendant, the attorneys (not the client) are on the hook for the litigation funding loan. Thus, no one is “paying” the client’s legal fees; the client’s attorneys are borrowing money secured by a lien on a future judgment against the defendant.

I don’t know the specifics of the “funding” referred to in the CNN story, but my hunch is that E. Jean Carroll’s attorneys obtained litigation funding described above. But even if the “funding” was a direct grant to Carroll’s attorneys, her testimony was corrected as soon as the additional recollection was identified. Under those circumstances, no jury would ever convict E. Jean Carroll of perjury. Indeed, I doubt that she could be indicted, and if indicted, the claim would likely be dismissed by the judge on a pretrial motion for vindictive prosecution.

The opening of the investigation is itself an act of retribution and bad faith. The US Attorney who opened the investigation, Andrew Boutrous, is the same person who presided over the scandal-plagued indictment and prosecution of the Broadview Six—a case that will likely lead to the disbarment of several attorneys who serve under Mr. Boutrous (for tampering with the grand jury and deceiving the court).

E. Jean Carroll has acted courageously throughout Trump’s assault on her. Moreover, her counsel, Roberta Kaplan, is a well-respected, highly ethical attorney whose conduct in the two trials was beyond reproach. E. Jean Carroll will prevail, again. The real question is which US attorneys may lose their licenses to practice law when the facts are explored in a court of law.

Trump threatens to “blow up” Oman—a US ally in the war against Iran.

During a “Dear Leader” cabinet meeting, Trump commented on the fact that Oman might work with Iran to establish a toll collection system for the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said,

Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that. They’ll be fine.

See NYTimes, Trump Threatens Oman Over the Strait. (Gift article, accessible to all.)

In the before times, when a US president threatened to “blow up” another country, that was headline news. Not any longer. Trump says many things each day that are unhinged, false, or reckless. No one takes Trump’s statements at face value because they know he is mentally unstable and impulsive. But that fact deserves headline treatment every time Trump threatens to blow up another country.

On the off chance that any headline writers for major media outlets are reading this newsletter, the appropriate headline on Wednesday should have been, “Mentally unstable, impulsive president threatens to blow up U.S. ally.”

Speaking of a mentally unstable and impulsive president, last week, Trump was teasing a peace agreement “within hours.” Today, the US attacked Iran, and Iran retaliated by attacking a US military base that launched the attack against Iran. See NYTimes, Iranian Military Says It Targeted a U.S. Base in Retaliation for Strikes.

Trump can’t find a way out of his war of choice. We need to help him—by raising our voices in protest so that Trump (and Republicans) understand that the biggest threat to their political futures is from the American people, not from Iran.

Concluding Thoughts

I received a regular update from Democracy Docket on Wednesday about the efforts by Marc Elias’s firm to stop the disclosure of private voter information held by states. See Democracy Docket, Ashley Cleaves, Trump’s DOJ voter roll losses are getting louder.

As Ashley Cleaves writes, the states have consistently defeated the Trump administration's efforts to obtain voter roll information. Like many things in Trumpworld, the initial announcement is touted by Trump, but the defeat of Trump’s effort is buried in the back pages of the newspaper.

Per Cleaves,

Trump’s Justice Department proudly filed 31 lawsuits against 30 states and Washington, D.C., demanding access to sensitive voter roll data. They bragged about their assault on every social media platform and podcast that they could.

But lately, they’ve been very quiet.

That’s because they have come up empty-handed in every case in which there’s been a ruling: California, Oregon, Michigan, Arizona, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maine and Wisconsin. Last Thursday, federal judges in those last two states handed the DOJ consecutive losses within minutes of each other.

Take a look at the Democracy Docket article linked above. It will help you maintain perspective about the state of the battle to protect the 2026 elections. As I said, we have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent.

Talk to you tomorrow!

Pro-democracy protest photos

[Send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include city and state.]

Photos from our Signs of Democracy group in Arlington, Va. 

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AlbaNY Visibility Brigade. Amazing response tonight! Bus drivers, police officers and a slew of tractor trailer drivers!

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Recent Bridge Brigade message, “Stop the Rot at the Top” in Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

We’ve been holding the bridge brigade twice per week since October 8, 2025.  Our videos are very popular on social media. In the last three months, we’ve had almost a million hits. “Stop the Rot” is new but very popular.  (Lego the Files is the second most popular.)  

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San Jose, CA.  Bill and Helen, from Boston, MA, joined Indivisible San Jose on the overpass today! They participate in Turnpike protests every week and are visiting family near San Jose. Bill said they saw our VB photos in Today’s Edition in the past and wanted to join us.

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W 41st St Bridge, Baltimore, Maryland

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Pack-up Rick Perry Potluck Party with 70 attendees in Dillsburg, PA. Perry cutout, because Perry refuses to hold in-person town halls. Second picture: Candidates for office: TaWanda Stallworth for PA State House 199th district, Janelle Stelson running to oust Perry in US House District 10, and Nathan Wood candidate for PA State Senate 34th district. 

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American Tobacco Trail Pedestrian Bridge over I-40, Durham NC

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Burlington MA detention center

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These photos are from the 60th weekly protest on a street corner outside a senior center in Portland, OR. Many people from other parts of the city usually join this event.

Thank you for sharing protest pictures from around the country. It’s always uplifting to see how strong our movement truly is.

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Altoona, Pennsylvania, Heart of Blair County, most conservative county in PA. May 27, 2026

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C grift - Framingham MA VB

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Bridge Brigade action on Tuesday.  We are encouraging commuters to VOTE! We are over the 210 freeway in La Verne, CA.

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IS TRUMP A CROOK? HONK FOR YES

Lebanon, New Hampshire

2100 cars passed by in one hour -- of those, 777 gave waves or honks!

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