Short holiday edition.

November 27, 2024

Hi, all. I am sending a pre-holiday, abbreviated newsletter to help everyone glide into a few days of peace and renewal over the Thanksgiving Holiday. I will be back to my regular format next week.

Update on the House of Representatives. Ongoing ballot counts and ballot curing have boosted Democrat Adam Gray into the lead in California’s 13th congressional district. The odds are that the final tally in the House will be 220 seats for the GOP and 215 for the Democrats. But . . . Matt Gaetz has resigned, and Trump has nominated Republicans Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador) and Michael Waltz (NSA).

See generally Tracking 2024 U.S. House Races: Remaining Path to 218 Seats - The New York Times.

All three Republicans vacating their seats serve relatively safe districts, but until special elections are held, the Republican margin will be 217 to 215—meaning that the loss of a single vote by Republicans will result in a tie (216 to 216), which will prevent Republicans from advancing any legislation.

Even if Republicans win the seats abandoned by Gaetz, Stefanik, and Waltz, the GOP margin will be three votes. The defection of three Republicans would flip the GOP from a 220 (R) to 215 (D) majority to a 217 (R) to 218 (D) minority. Seven GOP candidates won by less than 10,000 votes, meaning that they will be looking over their shoulders during every vote to implement Trump's extremist agenda.

The fact that Democrats have clawed their way back to within a one to three vote minority is due to the incredible work of ballot curing by grassroots volunteers who worked through disappointment and exhaustion to push a handful of Democrats over the line. Congratulations to all of you! The nation owes you a debt of gratitude!

President Biden announces ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. President Biden helped negotiate a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. See NYTimes, Biden Hopes to Parlay Lebanon Cease-Fire Into a Broader Regional Peace. (“With a deal to end more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the president turns his attention back to stopping the war in Gaza before leaving office.)

Vice President Harris and Governor Tim Walz hold national call with volunteers to thank them for support. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz held a national call on Tuesday to thank supporters for their efforts during the 2024 campaign. See YouTube, National Grassroots Call with Tim Walz and Kamala Harris.

Sigh. Don’t let anyone alarm you about a proposed “constitutional convention” of the states. A progressive outlet has caused a mini-panic among Democrats with a story about Pete Hegseth’s support for a “constitutional convention” of the states. Hegseth is Trump's nominee to lead the Department of Defense. The story ominously suggests that such a convention could remove presidential term limits, ban abortion and marriage equality—all of which would be “enforced” by Hegseth as the head of the military.

The panic is unwarranted. The people who want to scare you deliberately fail to discuss the distinction between proposing a constitutional amendment and ratifying an amendment—both of which are necessary before it becomes part of the Constitution.

Two bodies can propose constitutional amendments: Congress or a “convention of the states” called under Article V of the Constitution.

But regardless of which body proposes a constitutional amendment, an amendment does not become effective until it is ratified by three-fourths of the state legislatures (38). Accordingly, any 13 state legislatures can block ratification of a constitutional amendment.

Democrats control one or both chambers in 22 state legislatures. Legislative Control Post-election 2024

Thus, it is impossible for amendments removing presidential term limits or banning abortion or same-sex marriage to become law unless 11 state legislatures controlled by Democrats agree to ratify the amendments. That isn’t going to happen.

Repeat: It takes 38 states to ratify a constitutional amendment. That isn’t going to happen for any amendment that proposes the radical amendments discussed in the alarmist article. Please don’t spread unwarranted panic. We have enough to worry about without making up stories.

Trump is serious about tariffs. Speaking about panic, Trump caused one in the financial and business communities by making clear that he is serious about tariffs—starting with Canada, Mexico, and China. See NBC, Trump says he plans to enact new tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico on his first day in office.

Back-pedaling and special pleadings for exemptions are already beginning. NYTimes, Trump’s Tariffs Would Deal a Big Blow to the Auto Industry. (“Automakers and parts suppliers would struggle if President-elect Donald J. Trump followed through on his threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.”)

It is an unfortunate truth many voters who supported Trump will be hurt (like all Americans) by price increases, supply chain disruptions, and inflation. No one should take satisfaction in the suffering that will befall all Americans because of Trump's lie that “tariffs are a tax on foreign nations.” Tariffs are not imposed on nations; they are imposed on private importers who include transportation, taxes, and tariffs in their prices.

Founding Members Zoom.

There will be a Founding Members’ Zoom call on Wednesday, November 27, 2024, at 5:00 p.m. Pacific / 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Founding Members should check their email for details.

Concluding Thoughts

The dismissal of the federal cases against Trump brought home the cold reality of the loss on November 5th. Monday was a rough day. Legal analysts and DOJ alumni have been defending Merrick Garland and discussing the possibility of reviving the prosecutions in 2029. The remote contingency of future prosecutions should not complicate our plans to recapture control of the federal government, and to reform the Supreme Court and the DOJ.

Set Trump aside. Here’s the plan: flip ten seats in 2026 to take control of the House and win the presidency in 2028. That is less than 10,000 votes in each of 10 districts; in several, it is less than 1,000 votes. While flipping the House and regaining the presidency won’t be a complete solution to our present problems, it will be a start. Those goals are realistically achievable—and the world will look entirely different at that point.

While we cannot count on Republicans to defeat themselves, we are already seeing the panic and fear in the business community that will inevitably follow from uncontrolled deregulation, increased tariffs, and a shrinking labor pool. Our goal is to turn that panic into a strategic advantage. Trump's “honeymoon period” is already over—and his presidency has not yet begun. And he will be a lame duck in 24 months with no constitutional convention to save him.

There is a path forward and we must take it no matter how aggrieved and disappointed we feel at this point. Those indefatigable grassroots volunteers who helped push Derek Tran and Adam Gray over the line in the last three weeks have shown us the way: Keep pushing even when it is the last thing you feel like doing.

But for the rest of this week, rest. Spend time with friends and family. Jill and I will do a short video for tomorrow’s newsletter to help celebrate the holiday with you. In the meantime, focus on gratitude. We are grateful to be on this journey with you!

Stay strong, friends!

We will talk to you tomorrow.

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Daily Dose of Perspective.

It is still overcast and rainy in LA, so I am publishing below-par images that I had hoped to replace with better photos. The photo below is a short-exposure, fuzzy image of the Horsehead Nebula. I took a short exposure to fill up “telescope availability” between other planned photos. The Horsehead Nebula is 1,400 light-years from Earth and has a radius of 3.5 light-years.

Enjoy!