“Shameful, dangerous, un-American.”

February 14, 2024

Democrat Tom Souzzi wins in NY 3rd congressional district.

Tom Souzzi won the NY 3rd congressional district election to replace disgraced GOP ex-member of the House, George Santos. While Santos won by 7 percentage points in 2022, Souzzi won by approximately 8 percentage points in 2024—a swing of 15 points. By all measures, the outcome is a positive signal for Democratic prospects in November. But—on cue—talking heads are already explaining away Souzzi’s victory and predicting tough headwinds for Joe Biden. Don’t believe them.

Major media thrives on the counter-narrative, i.e., predictions of doom and gloom that seek to turn good news into bad and bad news into catastrophe. Here is a case in point: On Monday, CNN ran an article on the upcoming election in NY 3rd congressional district entitled, New York Democrats are worried about Tuesday’s special election. They have good reason to be.

The CNN article included the sub-headline “Democrats on the brink, and Republicans on the rise,” and predicted that the election would serve as a litmus test for Democratic prospects in November:

“The outcome (of the race) will be a measure of how the Democratic brand can affect races all over the country,” [Larry ] Levy [of Hofstra University] said. “If Suozzi can’t withstand the damage the Democratic Party has sustained over inflation, Israel and immigration, then I’m not sure who could.” [¶]

Though no single contest . . . can claim to foretell what comes next in national politics, “Suozzi vs. Mazi” (it rhymes) comes awfully close.

CNN, which has recently turned Trump-curious, undoubtedly regrets claiming that the NY 3rd congressional election “comes awfully close” to predicting “what comes next in national politics.”

There is some truth in CNN’s statement. Speaker Mike Johnson and GOP vice-presidential nominee in-waiting Elise Stefanik campaigned hard for Suozzi’s opponent, hammering on immigration. Both Johnson and Stefanik should be rethinking their approach to immigration today.

We cannot become complacent because of Suozzi’s victory. Rather, the lesson is that we must replicate the enormous effort that went into securing Suozzi’s victory. Even CNN recognized that an army of grassroots volunteers helped Suozzi:

Grassroots progressive groups like Engage Long Island, which is part of the Indivisible network, have been feverishly knocking on doors – taking their case directly to like-minded neighbors. And Suozzi has massively outraised Pilip, taking in $4.5 million to her $1.3 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings that cover the beginning of October through January 24 of this year.

Tonight, we all owe a debt of gratitude to the grassroots volunteers at Indivisible, PostCardsToVoters (sent 202,236 fully handwritten postcards to Democrats in NY-03), Markers for Democracy, Swing Left, and dozens of other groups that did the hard work of getting out the vote to ensure victory! You are all heroes!

There will be much analysis of what this victory means, but none will be more reliable and salient than that of Simon Rosenberg at Hopium Chronicles. Simon played a key role in motivating grassroots volunteers to join the effort to elect Suozzi. I recommend that you check out Simon’s Substack blog on Wednesday. See Simon Rosenberg, Hopium Chronicles.

But the last word goes to the Biden Campaign, which released this statement:

Donald Trump lost again tonight. When Republicans run on Trump’s extreme agenda – even in a Republican-held seat—voters reject them. As we saw in 2020, 2022, . . . .

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President Biden condemns Trump's comments encouraging Putin to attack NATO countries.

In a second very positive development on Tuesday, President Biden gave brief remarks at the White House condemning Trump's statement “encouraging” Russia to invade NATO allies who do not “pay” their “dues.” (Fact check: NATO allies do not “pay dues.”) The fact that Biden has gone on the offensive is morally and strategically important. (The eight-minute video is here: CNN, Dumb, shameful, dangerous, un-American: Biden blasts Trump's comments on NATO.

Biden’s defense of the NATO alliance honors America’s commitment to global peace and security. Trump's statement has rattled our NATO allies and given aid and comfort to Russia’s expansionist plans. It was the honorable and right thing to do to speak out from the White House. Good for Joe Biden!

At least as importantly, President Biden’s forward-leaning stance on foreign policy is a smart strategic move. Foreign policy is an area where maturity, judgment, stability, and lateral thinking matter—a lot. Biden has those qualities in abundance, while Trump exhibits the antithesis of those attributes.

In his remarks (full text here) President Biden said, in part:

Can you imagine, a former president of the U.S. saying that? The whole world heard it. The worst thing is he means it. No other president in our history has ever bowed down to a Russian dictator. For God's sake, it's dumb, it's shameful, it’s dangerous, it’s un-American.”

When America gives it word, it means something. When we make a commitment, we keep it. And NATO is a sacred commitment.

Donald Trump looks at this as if it’s a burden. When he looks at NATO, he doesn’t see the alliance that protects America and the world. He sees a protection racket. [¶¶]

[O]ur adversaries have long sought to create cracks in the Alliance. The greatest hope of all those who wish America harm is for NATO to fall apart. And you can be sure that they all cheered when they heard Donald Trump — when they heard what he said.

I know this: I will not walk away. I can’t imagine any other president walking away. For as long as I’m president, if Putin attacks a NATO Ally, the United States will defend every inch of NATO territory.

Let me close with this. You’ve heard me say this before. Our nation stands at an inflection point — an inflection point in history — where the decisions we make now are going to determine the course of our future for decades to come. This is one of those moments.

President Biden must continue to call out Trump's outrageous statements with similar force every time he threatens to turn the FBI into a private police force, round up millions of immigrants, or withdraw (again) from the Paris Climate Agreement.

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Senate passes supplemental funding bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

The Senate passed a supplemental funding bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. In an unusual move, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell spoke truthfully as the Senate prepared to send the bill to the House. McConnell said,

“For three years, a policy of hesitation, short-sightedness, and self-deterrence led the world to wonder whether the United States still has the resolve to face growing, coordinated threats.

“Today, we faced a clear test of that resolve. Our adversaries want America to decide that reinforcing allies and partners is not in our interest, and that investing in strategic competition is not worth it. They want us to take hard-earned credibility and light it on fire.

“But today, the Senate responded by reaffirming a commitment to rebuild and modernize our military, restore our credibility, and give the current Commander-in-Chief, as well as the next, more tools to secure our interests.

“History settles every account. And today, on the value of American leadership and strength, history will record that the Senate did not blink.”

While we should recognize that McConnell’s words are frequently at odds with his actions, his remarks from the Senate floor on Tuesday had the virtue of being true.

Then things got weird.

Speaker Mike Johnson said he would not bring the Senate bill to the floor. Why? As explained by “Freedom” Caucus member Andy Biggs, “If it were to get to the floor, it would pass.” That’s right, if the supplemental aid bill is brought to a vote on the House floor, it would pass—something Speaker Johnson will not allow to happen because Trump opposes US funding to Ukraine.

Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries confirmed that the bill would pass if brought to a vote on the floor, saying

There are more than 300 bipartisan votes in the House to pass the National Security bill today. It’s not too much to ask that we get a vote and actually let the House work its will as opposed to allowing Trump to work his will and block our National Security priorities.

Speaker Johnson claims he won’t allow the aid bill to come to the floor because it does not address immigration reform and border security—provisions that Republicans stripped from a prior version of the aid bill because Trump told them to do so.

Josh Marshall aptly described Mike Johnson’s upside-down logic,

Speaker Mike Johnson said that he would not allow a vote on the bill because the House had not yet “received any single border policy change from the Senate…”

This is true, in a way, in the sense that a kid who’s killed his parents asks the judge to have mercy on him as an orphan. 

It is not clear whether, when, or how Congress will pass supplemental funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Trump is now instructing Republican members of Congress to convert the aid into loans. Hakeem Jeffries is considering bypassing Speaker Johnson to bring a discharge petition—a rarely used procedural move that would require the cooperation of roughly half of the GOP House caucus.

In the meantime, Putin is enjoying the chaos, doubt, and suspicions that Trump's volatile and unpredictable demands are inflicting on the NATO alliance. That is a message that we must help Joe Biden amplify every day until November 2024.

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Opportunity for reader engagement.

See the note below from Jessica Craven of Chop Wood Carry Water:

With Valentine’s Day just around the corner, the folks at Climate Action Now decided to take a timely dive into the impact of chocolate on climate change, and it’s a doozy. Cocoa farming is a leading cause of deforestation in Africa, while simultaneously threatening endangered species like chimpanzees.  It doesn’t have to be that way.

On February 15 at 7:00 pm ET, Chop Wood, Carry Water’s Jessica Craven will moderate an all-star panel of experts from the World Wildlife Fund and elsewhere to explain the problem. Participants will be invited to use the incredibly easy Climate Action Now app to send hundreds of messages to chocolate companies urging them to clean up their act.

Please join Jessica and her friends at Climate Action Now for a lively hour of learning and climate action for a sustainable planet.

Date: Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2024
Time: 4:00 pm PT / 7:00 pm ET
Location: Zoom, registration required

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Concluding Thoughts.

Republicans will live to regret their sham impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. The impeachment is a continuation of the self-inflicted wound on immigration that drove voters away from Trump's surrogate in the NY 3rd congressional district election.

Democrats will have the advantage in the Senate trial, which Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will control. House Republicans will appoint members to prosecute Secretary Mayorkas—possibly Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan, who Democrats will oppose with members like Jamie Raskin and Adam Schiff. As we have seen in the House Oversight Committee hearings, Democrats will run circles around the inept Republican prosecutors.

In a way that Republicans will regret, the hearings will provide Democrats with a golden opportunity to explain how Republicans have undermined border security and immigration reform. We should not look at the Mayorkas impeachment with fear and anxiety but with optimism that we will be able to flip the immigration narrative—as Tom Suozzi did in Tuesday’s election in New York.

Talk to you tomorrow!