Science and political will.

December 14, 2022

          Many significant stories on Tuesday are competing for attention. While any one of them could serve as the lead for today’s newsletter, I will focus on the developments in this order: the breakthrough in nuclear fusion and the politics of science; Biden’s signing of the same-sex marriage bill; encouraging news on inflation; progress on the appropriations bill; and GOP jockeying for 2024 presidential nomination.

Announcement regarding “ignition” in nuclear fusion experiment.

          As expected, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm announced that the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory in Berkeley, California, achieved “ignition” in a nuclear fusion reaction. In an experiment last week, the NIF used 192 lasers to deliver 2.05 megajoules of energy to produce 3.15 megajoules of energy—a 54% net energy gain. See Nature, Nuclear-fusion lab achieves ‘ignition’: what does it mean?

          The accomplishment is the first time nuclear fusion “ignition” has been achieved in a laboratory and is a remarkable feat. The “proof of concept” suggests that the half-century quest to produce clean energy from nuclear fusion is theoretically possible. Although monumental engineering challenges must be overcome to harness nuclear fusion for commercial use, the promise of limitless, carbon-free energy could shape our future in profound ways.

          How powerful are fusion reactions? Very. Nuclear fusion is the process that powers both the sun and hydrogen bombs—neither of which represents a contained and controllable release of energy. Indeed, the fusion process in a hydrogen bomb is initiated by exploding a fission-based “atomic bomb” to create the intense heat and pressure necessary to kick-start the fusion process of the hydrogen bomb. That fact explains why the National Ignition Facility was the site of the first successful nuclear fusion ignition. The NIF is a defense lab that studies thermonuclear explosions for the US military.

          The NIF’s role in the search for controlled nuclear fusion has been controversial, not just because of its military mission. NIF’s research cost US taxpayers billions of dollars and suffered through a decade of delay and disappointment. Despite doubters and critics, the NIF received the necessary funding to continue its research. The political will to support the research despite scientific setbacks and cost overruns is an important part of the achievement announced on Tuesday.

          US politicians have not always demonstrated the will and foresight to make long-term investments in our future. In the early 1980s, US scientists proposed the construction of the Superconducting Super Collider, a nuclear accelerator that was multiple times larger and more powerful than the planned superconductor at CERN (in Switzerland). The project was bold and ambitious but was plagued by cost overruns and management difficulties. When a first-year class of Newt Gingrich allies swept into Congress in 1993, they “no longer accorded big science the prestige it enjoyed during the cold war, and their opposition proved overwhelming.”  See Scientific American, The Supercollider That Never Was. The US supercollider was shut down in 1994 when it was only 20% complete.

          The loss of the superconducting supercollider shifted the focus of high-energy physics research to Europe. The Higgs boson was discovered at CERN in 2012. Most experts believe it would have been found by the US supercollider a decade earlier. But as one commentator observed,

in contrast to majestic projects like the space shuttle missions or the contemporary International Space Station, [the supercollider] couldn’t readily offer any consequences of its science. You can see images from a space station, see a rocket propel from the Earth. You cannot see a beam of protons collide, nor the particles which that collision reveals.

          Thus, the willingness of Congress and multiple administrations to continue financial support for basic research at NIF to prove the feasibility of nuclear fusion is a political achievement that should not be taken for granted.

          As a coda, I note that Ron DeSantis is following in the footsteps of the short-sighted and cynical congressional representatives in the Class of 1993. On Tuesday, DeSantis asked the Florida Supreme Court to authorize a grand jury to investigate “any and all wrongdoing” relating to the manufacture or distribution of Covid vaccines in Florida. See CNN Politics, DeSantis targets Covid vaccine manufacturers and CDC in latest anti-vaccine moves.

At the moment, DeSantis does not claim any actual wrongful conduct. Instead, he wants subpoena power to muck around in CDC and pharma company emails and research databases. It is a cynical, ignorant, and possibly deadly move. He will encourage conspiracy theorists to refuse life-saving treatment. But he is willing to risk the lives of millions of Americans to promote his political ambitions. He is a dangerous man.

President Biden signs the Respect for Marriage Act.

          Joe Biden and Kamala Harris hosted an inclusive White House ceremony to celebrate the signing of the Respect for Marriage Act. Politico, Biden signs historic bill codifying same-sex and interracial marriage. Many commentators have noted that the celebration comes ten years after Joe Biden surprised everyone (including President Obama) by coming out in favor of same-sex marriage. It is worth watching Joe Biden’s historic answer on Meet the Press ten years ago. The video is here: Joe Biden endorses same-sex marriage / May 6, 2012.

          And as long as we are looking back at old YouTube videos, this is worth watching: President Obama surprises Joe Biden with Medal of Freedom. The support and admiration between Obama and Biden stood in stark contrast to Trump’s support for rioters seeking to hang Mike Pence. But I digress!

          Biden has a great capacity to surprise by rising to the occasion. As a plain-spoken and humble man, he is able to address difficult topics in an earnest manner. In his comments on Tuesday, he did not shy away from the role of the Supreme Court in creating the need to safeguard same-sex marriage. While praising the passage of the bill, he added,

So sadly, I must acknowledge another reason we’re here. Congress is acting because an extreme Supreme Court has stripped away the rights afforded to millions of Americans that existed for half a century.

          Biden could have chosen not to address the role of the Supreme Court and, by implication, Justice Thomas’s explicit threat to overturn Obergefell. Instead, he acknowledged the reason the Respect for Marriage Act was necessary—an extreme Supreme Court depriving Americans of liberties guaranteed by the Constitution. It is fitting Biden was able to sign a bill that represents, in small measure, the realization of his comments a decade ago.  

Good news on inflation?

          When discussing inflation, expectations play a significant role in shaping the news. Who would have thought nine months ago that an announcement of an inflation rate of 7.1% was “good news”? But that is where we are. See CNBC, Inflation in November 2022: Prices rose less than expected, up 7.1% year ago. The news is good because it suggests a “cooling” of inflation. We are not yet out of the inflationary woods, but some of the pandemic-related inflationary factors have eased. Declining energy prices also contributed to the decrease in the inflation rate.

          Biden hailed the report as “welcome news.” An inflation rate of 7.1% is objectively high. But the decrease “feels” good to Americans looking for relief. If inflation continues to glide down over the next 18 months, perhaps Democrats can recover some of the ground they lost in the midterms based on voter misperception that the president can control inflation.

Progress on appropriations bill for 2023.

          I bet you weren’t lying awake at night worried that the government is scheduled to shut down on Friday at midnight unless Congress agrees on an omnibus spending bill. But that is the sad situation we are in—an impending catastrophe three days hence is not newsworthy in our four-hour news cycle. But we may have just averted catastrophe with eighteen news cycles remaining before a government shutdown makes it to the top of our news feeds. See The Hill, Lawmakers reach deal on framework for omnibus spending package.

          In all likelihood, Congress will pass a short-term “continuing resolution” that will kick the can down the road until an omnibus bill can be passed. That is progress, but no way to run a country!

Are we overestimating Ron DeSantis?

          Trump’s legal and political troubles may be catching up with him. A new poll shows that Republicans prefer Ron DeSantis over Trump as the 2024 GOP nominee by 30 percentage points. Forbes, DeSantis Surges Over Trump Among GOP By Double-Digit Margins, Poll Finds.

          It would be foolish to count Trump out. Remember how quickly he recovered his standing after a failed coup? But every time I report on bad news for Trump, readers comment that “Ron DeSantis is worse than Trump but smarter.” I agree that DeSantis is smarter than Trump and possibly more depraved, but we should be careful not to imbue DeSantis with abilities he does not possess and stature he has not earned. Ian Millhiser posted a comment on Twitter that expresses sentiments many observers of Ron DeSantis share:

Hypothetically speaking, suppose that Ron DeSantis launches his presidential race, and it is immediately clear to voters that he is a short, uncharismatic weirdo with a nasally voice and delusions of becoming an American Viktor Orban.

What’s the Republican Party’s plan C?

          Millhiser makes a good point: Outside of the weirdness that is Florida politics, DeSantis does not wear well. Moreover, he is thin-skinned and loses his temper. Oh, and he is apparently a miserable person in private. Trump was able to overcome similar deficits with feral charisma that DeSantis lacks.

          Should we write off DeSantis? No! Should we fear him? No! We can beat him, just like we beat Trump.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Here is something that should make us happy: When Chuck Schumer commented on the possibility of an omnibus spending bill being passed before year-end, he said:

I expect an omnibus will contain priorities both sides want to see passed into law, including more funding for Ukraine and the Electoral Count Act.

          If Congress can reform the Electoral Count Act before this session expires, it will be a significant step forward in protecting democracy against future attacks. The last iteration of the proposed ECA bill defused the extreme version of the “Independent State Legislature” theory. I will discuss in more detail if and when ECA reform is passed, but the possibility of its passage should give us hope that future elections will be more secure and orderly—as the Framers intended!

          Talk to you tomorrow!