Russia resorts to blackmail.

April 28, 2022

[Audio version here]

          A common refrain among Republicans who seek to defend Putin’s war of aggression is that Ukraine “belongs” to Russia or its “sphere of influence.” During a Senate hearing on Tuesday, Senate Rand Paul questioned Secretary of State Antony Blinken about whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was justified. Senator Paul said,

You could also argue that the countries that [Russia] has attacked were … part of the Soviet Union.

          Hmm. . . that sounds suspiciously similar to the argument that Vladimir Putin is making to justify his invasion of Ukraine. Putin has said that Ukraine does not have full sovereignty because “[m]odern Ukraine was entirely and fully created by Russia, more specifically . . . communist Russia”—i.e., the Soviet Union.

          It is long past time for the GOP to end its flirtation with Putin. Regardless of how much Republicans admire his authoritarian grip over Russia, Putin is a menace to everyone on earth. On Wednesday, Putin again rattled the nuclear saber, saying

          If someone intends to intervene into the ongoing events (in Ukraine) from the outside . . . then they should know that our response to those strikes will be swift, lightning fast. . . . We have all the tools for this — ones that no one can brag about. And we won’t brag. We will use them if needed. And I want everyone to know this.

          Thus, Putin believes Russia has the right to raze entire cities and commit atrocities against civilian populations in Ukraine, but if other nations “intervene,” that is grounds for nuclear retaliation. That dangerous hypocrisy seems not to bother Putin’s GOP apologists one bit.

          Putin resorted to blackmail on Wednesday by cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. Russia demanded payment in rubles instead of Euros or dollars as specified in the contracts. Cutting off supplies will only accelerate existing efforts by EU members to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas. See APNews, Russia cuts off gas to 2 NATO nations in bid to divide West. Russia receives $400 million per day from the EU for gas shipments. If Russia cuts off those deliveries, it will need to find other markets to replace sales to the EU—not an easy task. Per the APNews,

          Russia can, in theory, sell oil elsewhere — to India and China, for instance. But it doesn’t have the necessary pipelines in some cases, and it has only limited capacity to export gas by ship.

          The EU Commission President noted that “[t]he move that Russia did today is basically a move where Russia hurts itself.” Like the invasion of Ukraine, the move is likely to backfire on Putin and strengthen Western unity in opposing Russian expansionism. If only we could convince the Republican Party and Fox News to join that unified effort against Putin . . . .          

Possible significant developments in state actions against Trump.

          There were two developments on Wednesday that give some hope that Trump is heading for a moment of accountability for his past crimes. In the lawsuit by NY Attorney General Letitia James, the judge released an order describing documents that Trump’s appraiser (Cushman & Wakefield) sought to withhold from the state. The judge reviewed the records “in chambers” before deciding whether they should be given to Attorney General James.

          At the heart of the NY lawsuit is the claim that Trump claimed inconsistent values for real estate assets depending on the purpose they were being appraised for—tax returns or loan applications. The judge’s order lends support to that accusation:

This court has reviewed numerous documents in camera demonstrating that [Cushman & Wakefield] was not consistent in adhering to its internal quality control practices when conducting appraisals on behalf of the Trump Organization.

          One interpretation of the judge’s order is that Cushman & Wakefield was changing its valuation methodology to suit Trump’s needs. Stay tuned!

          Separately, in Georgia, the Fulton County District Attorney will begin selecting grand jurors on May 2 to consider evidence of election tampering by Trump. See Wire Tapped America, Fulton County DA to begin selecting special grand jury in Trump election tampering case on May 2. The grand jury will not begin hearing testimony until June 1st  to avoid the perception of interfering with the May 24th primaries in Georgia. Stay tuned!

Set back in New York congressional redistricting.

          New York’s highest court has rejected a redistricting plan proposed by the state legislature and has appointed a special master to redraw the district lines. The result is that the aggressive partisan maps drawn by the Democratic-controlled legislature will probably lose one “Democratic majority” district. See Talking Points Memo, Dems’ Congressional Districts Are Unconstitutional, Top NY Court Finds.

Deconstructing another bad news article.

          I have seen a few articles in the last week asserting that Biden’s support among young voters has “collapsed.” The latest entry is in Vox, Biden’s support among Gen Z and millennials is collapsing. Why? As with other articles bemoaning Biden’s declining favorability ratings, I don’t dispute the data. But the spin is something else. The author posits four reasons for the collapsing ratings among young voters. Let’s take a look at those reasons.

          First: “Some young voters want Biden to be more progressive.” The main issue discussed under this point is student loan forgiveness. The author says that young people don’t want Biden to merely “consider” forgiving student loan debt. They want him to do it. Fair point. But Republicans are opposed to forgiving student loan debt. So, to the extent this is a point of dissatisfaction, it hardly seems like a cause for worry that young voters will vote for Republicans. (They may stay home, which is a different problem.)

          Second: “The economy’s not great, and young voters blame Biden.” Here, the author ignores every good piece of economic news and starts with this thesis: “Inflation is the top concern of most Americans today — and that includes young Americans.” In other words, this factor is not unique to young voters and does nothing to explain Biden’s “collapsing” support among Gen Z and Millenials.

          Third: “A poorly managed pandemic eroded trust in the government.” Hmm. . . does this factor refer to Trump or Biden? Indeed, the author notes that

[Biden] has overseen a fairly successful mass vaccination campaign, distributed free rapid tests, and has revamped efforts to increase access to antiviral medicines. Still, young people have seen deaths and illnesses in their families . . .

          So, Biden has done an excellent job handling the pandemic, but young people have seen illnesses and deaths due to coronavirus. Again, this factor does not have any explanatory power regarding Biden’s “collapsing” ratings among young voters.

          Fourth: “The vibes are off.” As explained by the author, the “vibes being off” means that young voters “appear to pin blame for the country’s status quo on the president in power.” In other words, we see a universal dynamic in operation that has nothing to do with Biden.

          So, a more accurate headline would be “Biden’s decline in favorability is generally reflected among young voters.” That is not a happy headline, but it is not a story about a “collapse” in support among young voters in particular. And three of the reasons—the economy, the pandemic, and “the vibes”—have little to do with Biden. In other words, the article is a “just-so story” that retrofits the facts onto a predetermined thesis.

          Please don’t misunderstand my point: Biden should do everything he can to turn around the decline in his favorability ratings. But let’s not fabricate reasons for declining support among young voters. It looks to me like the solution to low ratings among young voters is the same for all other voters—getting the message out that Biden has done a good job with the economy, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, infrastructure, judicial appointments, and standing up for groups stigmatized by the right. And he could do even more—if we gave him bigger majorities in both chambers of Congress.

Concluding Thoughts.

          It almost hurts to watch coverage of the Republican primaries as Trump imitators try to outflank one another to the extreme right. But as painful as it is to watch the unhinged, anti-democratic, and hateful positions being staked out by Republican candidates, we must remember that the “race to the fringe” will produce weaker, less electable candidates. Democrats have their problems, to be sure, but they are not re-litigating the 2020 loss by Donald Trump. Instead, they are pushing an agenda that has broad support among Democrats—and most Americans!

          The overlap between the Democratic agenda and the needs of voters provides a platform of strength for Democrats. We should project confidence and optimism as we head into 2022, not worry and fear. People are nervous and looking for social cues about how to react during challenging times. Lead by example; others will follow!

          Talk to you tomorrow!