Republicans double down on efforts to deny women reproductive liberty

April 11, 2024

Republicans in both chambers of the Arizona legislature blocked Democratic efforts to repeal the state’s 1864 law banning all abortions and criminalizing abortion healthcare—leaving no doubt that the Arizona Supreme Court’s ruling was the precise outcome Republicans wanted. Although a few Arizona Republicans have expressed regret for their prior support for the 1864 law, it will remain in effect until the voters of Arizona approve a proposed state constitutional amendment that would recognize abortion as a “fundamental right.” See Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative.

The Speaker of the Arizona House has said that he will not allow a vote to repeal the 1864 law and GOP members of the Arizona Freedom Caucus released a statement that said,

The Supreme Court of Arizona made the correct ruling, upheld the intent of the legislature, and preserved the rule of law today by ruling that the pre-Roe law will remain effective. [¶¶]

Sadly, it seems that some are choosing to reject the fundamental, core principle of protecting life. Some have chosen instead to jump on the bandwagon to legalize unrestricted abortions for the first 15 weeks of pregnancy —a position that would permit 95% of all existing abortions to continue. This is unacceptable, morally wrong, and abrasively out of step with the central tenants of the Republican Party Platform and Republican voters.

The second paragraph quoted above attacks Republicans who are “rejecting” the core Republican position on abortion—a fundamentalist criticism that applies to Donald Trump, who said on Wednesday that he would not sign a national abortion ban. See NPR, Trump backed a federal abortion ban as president. Now, he says he wouldn't sign one.

Trump is playing word games with the fundamental rights of women. If elected, Trump doesn’t need to “sign” a national abortion ban to enforce a national abortion ban. How can that be?

Project 2025 is a plan being prepared by Trump's reactionary advisors to implement an authoritarian regime under Trump if he is reelected. One prong of Project 2025 is to use the 1873 federal law known as the Comstock Act to effectuate a national ban. See Mark Joseph Stern in Slate, Arizona’s abortion ban is back. It’s every state’s future if Trump wins. (slate.com)

Like the 1864 Arizona law, the Comstock Act is a moribund law that has been overtaken by newer statutes—but it has not been repealed. A Trump-appointed Attorney General could simply start enforcing a federal law that has been on the books since 1873 and claim that there is no “ban” signed by Trump. The national “ban” on abortion was signed by President Ulysses S. Grant in 1873—and would be enforced as an existing law by his Attorney General (Kash Patel?).

Indictments under the Comstock Act would be challenged in federal court, which would place the ongoing validity of the Comstock Act on the US Supreme Court’s docket. It is reasonable to assume that the reactionary majority on the US Supreme Court will rule in the same way as the Republicans on the Arizona Supreme Court.

In short, don’t fall for Trump's “I won’t sign a national ban” lies. He will instruct his Attorney General to enforce the Comstock Act—and claim that he kept his promise.

Trump's other attempts to moderate his stance on reproductive freedom amount to incoherent flailing. He said on Wednesday that abortion is an issue of “states’ rights,” a formulation that omits women from the legal considerations of an act that can only be performed by them. To date, none of the fifty states has ever become pregnant—and none ever will.

Trump went further, confirming states should be free to jail doctors if they provide abortion healthcare.

But the privileged arrogance of conservative men denying reproductive liberty reached its apogee on Fox News. On Wednesday, a male Fox News commentator (Steve Moore) said that “having to get a bus ticket” to see a gynecologist “isn’t the worst thing in the world.” Beyond Moore’s unbounded arrogance lies profound ignorance.

Women frequently need abortion healthcare on an emergency basis—because they are hemorrhaging or spiraling into sepsis. “Buying a bus ticket” under such circumstances may be a death sentence for the woman. And depending on where the woman lives, the “bus ride” may be a thousand miles to secure healthcare that was a federal constitutional right for the last half century—before Dobbs.

The continued assault on women’s fundamental rights by the Republican Party—combined with the arrogance and ignorance of the men leading the charge—will have far-reaching ramifications in November 2024 and beyond. Every voter who cares about women should be motivated as never before to vote for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot in 2024. Republicans are making that point clearer every day.

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The dysfunction in the House of Representatives reaches new heights

Two looming crises in the House are once again threatening the Speaker’s tenure. Both crises relate to national security—the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and funding for Ukraine. And behind both crises lurks Donald Trump—with Marjorie Taylor Green whispering in his ear.

FISA must be reauthorized next week or it will lapse. Section 702 authorizes the federal government to collect intelligence on foreigners abroad without a warrant. Section 702 is an important provision in protecting American national interests through intelligence gathering.

But Trump believes that he was targeted by the Obama administration using FISA, and posted a statement on his vanity social media platform saying, “KILL FISA, IT WAS ILLEGALLY USED AGAINST ME.”  As explained by the New York Times (in an article accessible to all),

The statement was largely incoherent as a matter of policy. Section 702 allows the government to target foreigners abroad for surveillance without warrants. The instance Mr. Trump was apparently referring to — when the F.B.I. obtained wiretap orders on a former campaign adviser to his 2016 campaign as part of the Russia investigation — concerned a different section of FISA for targeting Americans and people on domestic soil in national security inquiries.

So, Trump is urging Republicans to kill Section 702 of FISA relating to foreign intelligence gathering because a different provision of the law (not up for renewal) was used to obtain a warrant against a Trump campaign worker (Carter Page) who visited Moscow during the 2016 campaign.

On Wednesday, House “Freedom” Caucus members followed Trump's instructions and refused to advance the reauthorization bill to the floor for a vote.

Why does this matter? Because it appears that Speaker Mike Johnson will be forced to rely on majority support from Democrats to pass the reauthorization of Section 702—something that Johnson and every sober member of Congress understands is in the vital interests of the US.

But if Johnson goes to the Democratic well again to pass legislation over Republican objection, it may be his last act as Speaker. And if the FISA reauthorization bill is not his last act, Johnson is also teeing up a vote on Ukraine aid next week. As with FISA, the Ukraine aid bill will pass in the House only with majority Democratic support.

Speaker Johnson held a meeting of the GOP caucus on Wednesday—which consisted of Republicans screaming at one another. See The Hill, GOP rages over FISA as deadline inches closer.

Against the backdrop of the FISA reauthorization and a long-delayed vote on Ukraine, Marjorie Taylor Greene has again threatened to call a vote to vacate the chair (remove the Speaker). See Marjorie Taylor Greene renews threats to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson | AP News.

Per the AP,

Greene in stark terms warned Johnson not to reach across the aisle to Democrats for votes he would need to pass pending legislation that hard-right Republicans oppose, particularly aid to Ukraine.

In short, among the other problems vexing Republicans, they may be on the verge of another fight over Speaker—which can be avoided only at the cost of failing to act on two of the most urgent national security bills in Congress this year. Whatever happens, it will be a dumpster fire that will damage either the GOP or America’s national security—or both.

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Biden campaign outpaces Trump in field offices—112 to zero

Trump is distracted by his financial, criminal, and political troubles. He is spending so much of his time raising money for defense costs he has neglected his campaign. As Zac Harmon reported, the Biden Campaign has 112 field offices in 9 swing states. Trump has opened zero field offices in those same swing states.

While there is still time for Trump to correct his error, he will be sitting in a courtroom five days a week, eight hours a day for the next six weeks. And being a criminal defendant is a job that doesn’t stop when court adjourns for the day. During evenings and weekends, Trump will be meeting with lawyers and filling Truth Social with invective. There won’t be much time for building infrastructure for November.

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Meanwhile, President Biden strengthens relations with Japan

As Trump is distracted on multiple fronts, President Biden continues the hard work of managing the largest economy and military in the world. On Wednesday, he met with Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. See New York Times, Biden and Kishida Agree to Tighten Military and Economic Ties to Counter China.

Per the Times,

[President Biden] said the United States and Japan would create an expanded defense architecture with Australia, participate in three-way military exercises with Britain and explore ways for Japan to join a U.S.-led coalition with Australia and Britain.

Mr. Biden also announced that the United States would take a Japanese astronaut to the moon as part of NASA’s Artemis program, which would be the first time a non-American has set foot on the moon.

“This is the most significant upgrade of our alliance since it was first established,” Mr. Biden said at a news conference in the White House Rose Garden along with the prime minister.

Maintaining close relations with Japan is in the vital interests of the US in Asia—and around the world. Japan is key to containing Chinese military dominance in Asia and is an important partner in support for Ukraine.

As Republicans descend into chaos over foreign policy, Biden is showing a steady hand and strong, forward looking vision focused on the long-term strategic interests of the United States.

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Concluding Thoughts

A popular meme in the media is that Democrats—and Joe Biden—are losing support at a seismic level among Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters or that young voters are abandoning Biden. While we should always be willing to stare bad news in the eye and ask what we can do to fix it, we should also recognize that almost all information we receive today is weaponized in some fashion.

The reports of defections are frequently based on internal polling, poor-quality surveys, and downright lies. One research center with impeccable credentials is the Pew Research Center. Pew has recently looked at partisan identification by race, gender, and education. See Party affiliation of US voters by race, ethnicity, education | Pew Research Center (April 9, 2024).

If you spend twenty minutes with the Pew study, you will see that while some groups have had slight changes over time, the changes have been moderate and offsetting depending on which factor is isolated. Looking at voter identification from 1994 to the present, support for Democrats among white voters is essentially unchanged, support among Black voters for Republicans is virtually unchanged, and support for Democrats among Asian voters has increased while support for Democrats among Hispanic voters has decreased.

If you couldn’t follow all the changes above, that’s the point: In general, changes (if any) have been moderate and offsetting. (Note: I am looking at numbers in the aggregate over time. Please don’t isolate one number in one subset of voters in one year and declare that the sky is falling. That is the type of myopia that Republicans are relying on to create a false narrative.)

One pattern that is both a troubling trend and a hopeful opportunity is the slight decrease in Democratic support among Black and Hispanic women over time. While Democrats still dominate in both constituencies, the erosion is concerning, even if slight. But the actions of the Arizona and Florida Supreme Courts on abortion, the total or near total bans in two dozen states, and the arrogance and disregard of male legislators for the healthcare needs of women may reverse that erosion in 2024.

And to be precise, the Pew report is studying partisan affiliation. We should expect a substantial portion of Republican women to vote in favor of reproductive freedom in 2024—including voting for candidates who will support those liberties in state legislature and executive offices.

The final point of note in the Pew report is that support for the two major parties in each group fluctuates from year to year. That is a good sign! It means that we are not locked into a historical outcome or controlled by a media narrative. We can move the needle on the meter. And if there was ever a year when we could move the needle in a big way, 2024 is it. Let’s make the most of this historic opportunity!

Talk to you tomorrow!