Republicans can't get out of their own way.

October 12, 2023

          During a moment of global crisis, House Republicans had the opportunity to look forward by selecting a speaker who would form a governing coalition or look backward by selecting a speaker who would maintain partisan grievances. In nominating Rep. Steve Scalise, House Republicans looked backward. In a closed-door vote by the GOP caucus, Scalise won 113 votes and Jim Jordan won 99. House Republicans are deeply divided—an inauspicious sign for the short-term functioning of the US government.

          It is not clear whether Scalise can win 217 votes on the floor of the House to become Speaker, but that is a detail subordinate to the larger point that Republicans have yet to grasp: They do not have a majority capable of governing. Republicans will not have such a majority even if Scalise or Jordan or (GOP player to be named later) manages to cobble together 217 votes to be elected as speaker.

          It is not enough for House Republicans to win once. To govern, a party must be able to win consistently. And here, “winning” doesn’t mean passing legislation on the floor of the House; it means passing legislation that will be approved in the Senate and signed by the President. House Republicans do not yet understand that truth—as the nomination of Steve Scalise proves. Until Republicans nominate a speaker who has the courage and support to join with House Democrats in a governing coalition, Republicans are doomed to a string of failed speakers hostage to the extremist elements in their party.

          But it may be premature to assume Scalise will win the speakership. See Bloomberg, Steve Scalise’s Ascent to House Speaker Threatened by Republican Divisions. Per Bloomberg,

But many of his party colleagues quickly indicated they won’t soon — or likely ever —get behind the 58-year-old Louisianan. Scalise can’t afford to lose more than four GOP votes to win against unified Democrats for their party leader, Hakeem Jeffries of New York.

Representative Ken Buck of Colorado told MSNBC that for Scalise to get his vote he’d have to declare that the 2020 election was not stolen from former President Donald Trump, and commit to putting Ukraine funding on the House floor for a vote.

Representative Nancy Mace of South Carolina said she wouldn’t support Scalise because he admitted to speaking to a gathering of White supremacist leaders while a state lawmaker a dozen years earlier. Scalise has said he did not know the group was founded by former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke.

          So, as the urgency of passing a US budget increases daily, it is not clear that Republicans can elect their nominee. What is clear is that their nominee is not the person who can lead House Republicans to a responsible role in American government during a time of global crisis.

Biden’s remarks on the Israeli-Hamas war.

          For the third consecutive day, President Biden delivered a remarkable speech on the Israeli-Hamas war. A video of Biden’s remarks is here, and the text of the remarks is here. On Wednesday, President Biden made explicit a statement that was implicit in Tuesday’s remarks. Biden said that he had known Bibi Netanyahu for 40 years and they have “a very frank relationship.” Biden then described his comments on a call earlier in the day with Netanyahu:

And the one thing that I did say is that it is really important that Israel, with all the anger and frustration that exists, is that they operate by the rules of war. And there are rules of war.

          As Biden was making clear that he expected Israel to protect civilian populations in Gaza under the laws of war, Biden spoke emotionally about the atrocities committed by Hamas on Saturday. He then pivoted to a remarkable personal story about his efforts to educate his children and grandchildren about the Holocaust:

If you’ll excuse a point of personal privilege . . . that’s why I took my [grand]kids — every one, when they turned 14 years old, one at a time, I put them on a plane and took them to Dachau. I wanted them to see that you could not “not know” what was going on walking through those gates. You could not fail to understand as a country what was going on. 

It had a profound impact on my children and my grandchildren. Some thought taking a 14-year-old grandchild was a mistake, but I took them one at a time. I’ve got three more to go.  And, folks, it’s important.

          Biden also preempted questions by reporters about his administration’s efforts to secure the release of American hostages:

Now, the press are going to shout to me —“What are you doing to bring these — get these folks home?”  If I told you, I wouldn’t be able to get them home.

Folks, there’s a lot we’re doing — a lot we’re doing.  I have not given up hope on bringing these folks home.

          The problems of sharing classified information became manifest on Wednesday as administration officials provided a classified briefing to the House. According to reports, the briefing quickly devolved into an ugly session where Republicans shouted at intelligence officials dealing with an evolving situation and the need to protect sources and methods. See NBCNews, Republican lawmaker erupts at Biden administration officials during Israel briefing.

          Per NBC,

[Republican Representative] Van Orden approached the Biden officials during a question-and-answer part of the briefing. Representative Chu and the other source said that instead of asking questions, Van Orden attacked the administration's presentation and shouted obscenities at the officials.

The eruption prompted Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., who was scheduled to ask the next question, to apologize for his GOP colleague's behavior. Crow’s apology drew widespread applause from the crowd of lawmakers in the room, Chu said.

          Meanwhile, Trump has been making nearly incoherent, narcissistic statements about the war. In speeches on Wednesday, Trump resurrected an old dispute with Netanyahu over who deserved “credit” for the assassination of an Iranian general and claimed that “if the election wasn’t rigged, there would be nobody even thinking about going into Israel.” With Trump, everything is always about him.

          So, things have not changed in the US in the last 24 hours. President Biden continues to lead, Trump continues to sow confusion, and Republicans can’t get out of their own way.

Op-ed by Thomas L. Friedman in NYTimes.

          An op-ed struck a chord with many readers, who forwarded the article to me with a request for comment. See Thomas L. Friedman's op-ed in NYTimes, Israel Has Never Needed to Be Smarter Than in This Moment. (Accessible to all.)

          Friedman’s op-ed urges Israel to resist the temptation to invade Gaza, based on the following logic:

First, I hope [President Biden] is asking Israel to ask itself this question as it considers what to do next in Gaza: What do my worst enemies want me to do — and how can I do just the opposite?

          As Freidman notes, Hamas wants Israel to invade Gaza, thereby trapping Israel in a lengthy, costly war of attrition. Instead, Freidman argues

U.S. and Israel [should] proceed instead as fast as possible with negotiations to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia as part of a deal that would also require Israel to make real concessions to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, which has accepted Israel as part of the Oslo peace accords.

          The rest of the op-ed is devoted to urging Netanyahu to take this moment to reject his authoritarian attacks on Israel’s Supreme Court and promote democratic reforms instead.

          I have oversimplified greatly, so read Friedman’s op-ed for yourself! I don’t agree with everything Freidman says, but many readers found his advice sensible, so I recommend the op-ed for your consideration.

Justice Alito acts as an advocate for South Carolina’s racially gerrymandered congressional districts.

          Meanwhile, back in the US, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on South Carolina’s efforts to defend racially gerrymandered congressional districts. Oral argument is a chance for lawyers for the opposing sides to make their case to the Court. Instead, Justice Alito took over the oral argument on South Carolina’s behalf and did his darndest to defend the unlawful district. See Chris Geidner on Substack’s Law Dork, Alito's marathon arguments in defense of S.C.'s racial gerrymander.

          Per Geidner,

More accurately, those of us in the courtroom listened to Justice Sam Alito’s nearly non-stop attempt over more than two hours to tell all of us why the justices should reverse a three-judge district court that ruled that the map includes an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. He was joined in making his case by John Gore — the former Trump administration lawyer who’s now at Jones Day and was representing the South Carolina lawmakers defending their map.

I counted. Alito “pos[ed] no fewer than 37 questions to the NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund’s Leah Aden—including a marathon 19-question session taking up 11 pages of the transcript during his final chance to question her . . . .

          Sadly, observers believe the Court will overturn the decision of a three-judge panel finding that South Carolina engaged in racial gerrymandering to dilute the voting power of Black voters.

          What can we do? Expand the Court to dilute the power of the reactionary majority.

Opportunities for reader engagement.

1. Markers for Democracy and Elissa Slotkin.

          Markers For Democracy—together with Downtown Nasty Women Social Group, Team Min, The Wednesday Group, and Seniors Taking Action—will be hosting Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI-07) on Tuesday, October 17, at 10:00 AM Eastern over Zoom.

          Elissa is running for the US Senate to hold the seat currently occupied by Debbie Stabenow, who is retiring. Elissa is a former CIA analyst who did three tours in Iraq alongside the US military. She then went on to serve in national security roles at the White House under two Presidents: George W. Bush and Barack Obama. It goes without saying that her strong background in national security is something that the Senate desperately needs right now, and Elissa has a gift for distilling difficult topics into language we all can understand. 

          We welcome readers to join our Zoom to learn more about Elissa and her Senate campaign. Registration is available via Mobilize at this link: Postcarding & Conversation with Rep Elissa Slotkin

2. League of Women Voters / Sonoma, CA

On Monday, October 23, 2023, at 11:30 am Pacific, the League of Women Voters of Sonoma, CA will present a free seminar on the topic, “Can Democracy Survive Disinformation?”  The event is free, but registration is required. (Registration link below.)

How worried should we be about disinformation?  How worried are you?  Disinformation is a new style of warfare -- it is fought using words, not guns.  It can influence elections and destabilize governments.  Nina Jankowicz, an internationally acclaimed expert, will take us into the world of disinformation campaigns revealing how they work and, more importantly, how to counter them.  She emphasizes what is at stake: the future of democracy and the value of truth itself. Jankowicz will have just returned from Ukraine when she speaks with us.

Click here to register.

Concluding Thoughts.

          I need your help. Readers are asking me to make recommendations regarding donations to emergency medical services and disaster relief for civilians in the Israeli-Hamas war. Based on a dozen or so reader recommendations, I compiled a list to share with you. And then I began to research each of the organizations, including a review of press releases by the organizations in the last three days.

          What I learned is that many international organizations have a history of controversy over Israeli-Palestinian relations. Other ostensibly neutral organizations have issued press releases in the last three days condemning one side or the other in the conflict while claiming to offer politics-free emergency medical relief and disaster assistance.

          So, I scratched my entire list.  

          The conflict has inflicted suffering, injury, and death on innocent civilians on both sides of the Gaza border. If we can, let’s identify organizations that everyone can support without worry that their money will subsidize polarizing speech or political attacks along with emergency aid. If you recommend an organization, can you please include its Charity Navigator rating and a description of your history with the organization (volunteering or donating). The need is great, and time is short. So, let’s do our best to come up with the most acceptable list possible.

          Thanks. I will talk to you tomorrow.