Putin taunts his victims.

March 8, 2022

[Audio version here]

          Russian troops are shelling residential neighborhoods in Ukraine. During lulls in firing, panicked residents flee their homes—at which point Russian soldiers adjust the trajectory of their rockets to rain terror on defenseless women and children. The strategy is a sadistic form of torture designed to flush victims into the open with a mixture of desperation and hope before Putin slaughters the innocent. It is difficult to imagine that Putin’s depravity could become worse. On Monday, it did just that.

          Putin taunted his victims by offering “humanitarian corridors” that lead not to freedom in the West but imprisonment in Russia—into the arms of jailers and executioners and soldiers who killed the husbands, fathers, and sons of Ukraine. If Ukrainians seek refuge in Russia, their very existence will disprove the lie Putin is pressing into the lips of the Russian people. No, Putin does not want Ukrainians to seek refuge in Russia. He is mocking their suffering, taunting mothers and children who are trapped in the madness and evil of Putin’s war.

          Try as he might, Putin cannot hide the ugly reality of his war against the Ukrainian people. The Russian economy is crumbling. Its commercial aviation industry has collapsed. The Russian people are locked out of credit cards, social media apps, global stock markets, international sports competitions, and more. On Sunday alone, more than 4,000 Russians were arrested for protesting the war. Police have been filmed in Moscow, stopping random pedestrians to examine their cell phones for news feeds and social media posts contradicting Putin’s lies about the war.

          But most of all, Putin cannot hide the thousands of dead Russian soldiers, whose bodies are being shipped back to their families in small towns across Russia. See Talking Points Memo, The Kremlin Can’t Hide Its Ukraine War Dead: Reports Emerge Of Funerals Across Russia. Although the bodies arrive with no ceremony and little notice, local officials are announcing details of the funerals—announcements that spark confusion and rage over Putin’s lie. In one town, a local media outlet that printed a death notice “had to close comments on the article after hundreds of people demanded to know what it was, exactly, that he died for.” 

          The death toll for Russian military families will only get worse and more noticeable. Russia lost 15,000 soldiers in ten years of fighting in Afghanistan. Ukraine claims that Russia has lost 11,000 soldiers in the first ten days of fighting in Ukraine. Even allowing for exaggeration by Ukraine, Russia is on track to lose more soldiers each month in Ukraine than in ten years in Afghanistan. Putin cannot hide the grim death toll from the people forever. One exiled Russian oligarch claims that the war in Ukraine will end Putin’s regime. In a sign that Putin understands the threat to his regime caused by mounting dead among the military, Putin promised on Tuesday that no conscripts would be deployed to Ukraine. Too late. There are tens of thousands of conscripts in Ukraine today.

          The war against Ukraine is the product of Putin’s evil mind. Although we may never know what compelled Putin to engage in widespread crimes against humanity, one long-time Putin observer has provided a plausible summary of Putin’s motivations. See Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, What’s eating Putin?. The article is an interesting read, but for those short on time, Putin’s main motivations include: Righting past wrongs, nostalgia for a mythical Russian ancestral identity, frustration over Russia’s diminishing global standing, contempt for Ukraine’s messy emerging democracy, China envy, increasing personal isolation, and bargaining with supporters in his inner circle who see themselves as potential successors.

A short-term Democratic win in the redistricting battles.

          On Monday, Democrats achieved two victories in redistricting fights appealed to the Supreme Court. The Court refused to grant review in two cases where the underlying rulings were favorable to Democrats. As a result, Democrats will likely pick up congressional seats in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Good! That is the right result because the underlying decisions in both cases turned on a state supreme court holding that GOP-proposed plans violated the state’s constitution. See The Hill, Supreme Court denies GOP requests to halt new maps in NC, Pennsylvania. This decision solidifies Democratic “gains” in the redistricting process and helps to avoid the “Armageddon” predicted by the media for Democrats.

          But in denying review in the North Carolina case, three Justices indicated that they are prepared to adopt a radical Republican theory that converts state legislatures into free agents not restrained by state constitutions—the so-called “independent state legislatures doctrine.” Under this theory, neither governors nor state courts may overrule a congressional map created by the state legislature. Justices Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch said they would grant review, and Kavanaugh probably would have joined those Justices if the request had been made earlier. See Slate, The Supreme Court is one vote away from blowing up federal elections.

          The problem is that the “independent state legislatures doctrine” has been rejected by the Court for more than a century. Ian Millhiser explains the history of this doctrine in Vox, The Supreme Court deals a big — but temporary — voting rights defeat to the GOP. Per Millhiser,

[T]he independent state legislature doctrine claims that governors are not allowed to veto election laws (because the governor is not the “legislature”), and state courts are not allowed to strike down election laws impacting federal elections (because courts are not the “legislature”).

[M]ore than a century of Supreme Court decisions reject this reading of the Constitution. . . . Thus, if states ordinarily give their governor the power to veto bills enacted by the state legislature, the governor may veto election-related bills.

          Even though the Supreme Court has rejected the “independent state legislature” theory for more than a hundred years, Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh appear poised to overturn that precedent. If adopted, this theory would also support the notion that state legislature can ignore the popular vote of their citizens and decide to appoint electors for the losing candidate. It is time to expand the Supreme Court to stop the reactionary majority before it dissolves the glue that binds our constitutional republic.

Finally, a story about Republican election woes.

          After a blizzard of stories about the woes faced by Democrats in 2022, the media is finally recognizing that the GOP has a lot of explaining to do as it approaches the 2022 election cycle. In particular, Senate Republicans face a challenging path forward. See MSN (AP), Republican’ unforced errors’ threaten path to Senate control. In short, Republicans have failed to recruit quality candidates in Arizona, New Hampshire, and Maryland. Moreover, Republicans have saddled themselves with Senator Rick Scott’s “Republican platform” that promises to raise taxes on 50% of Americans.

          The latest disappointment was GOP Gov. Doug Ducey’s decision not to challenge Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona. And per the AP report, Democrats are outraising Republicans in key races. Good!

          But . . . just as we should not believe the doomsaying about Democratic prospects, we should not count on Republican failure. My point in highlighting this article is simply to say that it is tough for everyone always, and we should not let the media’s decision to focus on one party change our perception of reality. We can win if we register new voters and convince voters to show up at the polls. It’s that simple.

Join the Corporate Accountability Project to hold corporations to their promises to stop supporting the Sedition Caucus.

          Two readers of this newsletter and of Jessica Craven’s Chop Wood, Carry Water newsletter have started an effort to hold accountable corporations that promised not to fund the Sedition Caucus. The volunteer group has come together under the name “Corporate Accountability Project” (CAP). CAP is hosting its third Zoom training on how to write letters to corporations that broke promises to cease funding the Sedition Caucus. The Zoom training will be held Sunday, March 13th at 12:00 PM Pacific / 3:00 PM Eastern. Sign up here: Civic Sundays--Corporate Accountability Project on ZOOM!

Update.

          As I have been writing this newsletter, Russia has reversed course and announced that Ukrainian refugees can “evacuate in the direction of their choice” —an improvement over the offer to evacuate into Russia. Of course, evacuation is possible only if the safety of evacuees is guaranteed. The Red Cross has reported that one of the “humanitarian corridors” leading into Russia was filled with land mines.

Concluding Thoughts.

          The victory in the Supreme Court and the difficulties faced by the GOP in Senate races remind us why we should not invest emotional energy in worrying about disasters that have not yet occurred. In politics, a month is an eternity. Rather than worry, we should simply continue to do everything possible to achieve the outcome we desire. If we do that, we increase the likelihood that we will be positioned to take advantage of unforeseen positive developments that come our way. So, let’s stay the course come what may!

          Talk to you tomorrow!