Only one path forward for Republicans.

October 13, 2023

          Each additional day that Republicans fail to elect a Speaker of the House is a “never-before-in-the-history-of-our-nation” event. Kevin McCarthy was the first speaker to be ousted on a motion to vacate. Steve Scalise is the first “post-motion-to-vacate” nominee for speaker to withdraw his candidacy before a floor vote on his nomination. We are in uncharted constitutional waters.

          The “Speaker of the House” is one of two legislative officers mentioned in the Constitution. (Art I, Sec 3, Cl. 5: “The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker.”) The Speaker is second in the line of succession prescribed in the Presidential Succession Act of 1947. The power of the House to act is dependent on a speaker who manages the calendar, controls debate, and calls for votes on motions to advance and approve legislation.

          The inability of Republicans to elect a speaker is due, in part, to their narrow margin of control—four votes. But Nancy Pelosi accomplished great things with a four-vote margin during the 117th Congress (2021-2022)—the first two years of President Biden’s historic legislative run.

          The dysfunction in the Republican House is a direct consequence of MAGA’s election of extremist candidates in gerrymandered districts (e.g., Jim Jordan). Those MAGA extremists constitute one of several independent federations operating under the umbrella name “Republican Party” in the House. But as is plain, the term “Republican Party” is a notional concept in the House with no operational consequence.

          The atomism of the House GOP will not be overcome no matter how many times the fractious Republican caucus votes for a speaker. Nor will it change if Republicans elect a speaker subject to removal by a motion to vacate made by a single member.

          The consequences are real; some Republicans understand that fact. GOP Rep. Michael McCaul said the following after Scalise withdrew his name from consideration:

We are living in a dangerous world; the world’s on fire. Our adversaries are watching what we do — and quite frankly, they like it.

I see a lot of threats out there. One of the biggest threats I see is in the [GOP caucus] room, because we can’t unify as a conference and put the speaker in the chair . . . .

          There is only one path forward. It is staring Republicans in the face. But they have yet to debase themselves enough or humiliate enough of their wannabe leaders to accept the inevitable: They do not have a governable majority and must join with Democrats to elect a consensus candidate with support from both parties.

          Or, as Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said, the only path forward is for

traditional Republicans break with the extremists within the House Republican Conference and partner with Democrats on a bipartisan path forward.

          Some Republicans understand that fact but have yet to find the courage to speak that truth out loud. The time will come; it must. The only question is how long before Republicans accept that truth—and how much drama and disruption the GOP will inflict on the American people before they surrender to reality.

          Addendum: Republicans are floating the notion of an “acting speaker” with expanded powers to allow passage of limited resolutions and specific bills. No such creature exists under the Constitution or the rules of the House. If Republicans can agree on expanding powers for an acting speaker, they can elect a speaker. (For a discussion of the limited powers of acting Speaker pro tempore Patrick McHenry, see House Practice: A Guide to the Rules, Precedents and Procedures of the House - Chapter 34. Office of the Speaker (govinfo.gov))

          Further addendum: On two occasions, the House has elected a speaker by a plurality vote. But a plurality vote to elect the speaker requires a rule change that would, in turn, require a majority vote. There is only one path forward: A bipartisan governing coalition.

US Response to Israeli-Hamas War.

          The US continues to provide support and assurances to Israel that are unreserved and unequivocal. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Tel Aviv to communicate US support directly to the unity government organized by Prime Minister Netanyahu and opposition leader Benny Gantz. Blinken will visit with the Palestinian Authority, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt in an effort to contain the conflict.

          Biden has moved decisively and acted boldly in managing the crisis. The inane patter about Biden’s age has suddenly receded into the background. See, e.g., Washington Post Editorial Board, Biden rises to the occasion on Israel and Hamas. Trump sinks to a new low. (This article is accessible to all.)

At a time when the United States, and the world, desperately need decency and moral clarity, President Biden has provided both. His words regarding the wanton atrocities Hamas has committed against hundreds of Israeli civilians, as well as many Americans and citizens of other countries, in the past week have been unequivocal.

In condemning the terrorism, and offering support to Israel’s military response, the president also reminded the new emergency war government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of its responsibilities under “the law of war.” These measured statements put the United States in just the right place: supportive of Israel but positioned, if need be, to influence and temper its response.

          As the Post’s editorial board praised Biden’s response, it described Trump's comments as being “in a reckless category of their own.” After reviewing his litany of breathtaking comments and the understandable anger of the Israeli leadership in response to those comments, the Post concludes:

Mostly, though, it is Americans who need to take notice of these comments — especially Republicans, both voters and politicians. To their credit, some of Mr. Trump’s rivals for the GOP nomination denounced his remarks. Even by his standards, they showed an extraordinary penchant for . . . converting an international crisis into a drama about himself. Mr. Trump’s latest outburst showed how fortunate this country is that he is not in the White House now and how unfortunate it would be if he ever returned to it.

          The war in Gaza is not about American politics. Yet, it serves as a stark reminder that the proper measure of the remaining time before the 2024 presidential election is, effectively, infinity. Anything that can happen probably will happen. We cannot predict how unknowable events will affect the outcome of the 2024 election. But what we can predict is that a president who is knowledgeable, steady, calm, decent, and determined is more likely to handle unknowable events better than a candidate who is mercurial, narcissistic, impulsive, and ignorant. See The Bulwark, Will Narcissist Trump’s Bizarre Praise for Hezbollah Hurt Him? As author Dennis Aftergut concludes,

Ordinary Americans’ repulsion at Trump's indecency may well be part of what saves American democracy from him.

          Foreign wars frequently determine the fate of US presidents. In choosing to stand firmly by Israel, Biden has made the right choice for America and Israel—and likely made a choice that will help us defend democracy in the US in 2024 and beyond.

Former Hamas leader calls for “Day of Rage.”

          A former Hamas leader has called for a “day of rage” on October 13, 2023. Per the Washington Post, the phrase “day of rage” is “a standard call for demonstrations.” But after the massive terrorist attack on Israel, calling for a “day of rage” has taken on an ominous undertone that has caused synagogues, schools, and cities to heighten their security alert status. See WaPo, D.C. region to boost security Friday after call for Hamas ‘day of rage’

          The call for a “day of rage” by a former Hamas leader has brought home the reality of the terrorist attack to tens of millions of Americans who will experience heightened security in the relative safety of homes, schools, and cities that are thousands of miles away from Israel and Gaza.

          Millions of parents and grandparents received notes on Thursday evening that read something like this:

We know many of you are aware of the online post calling for individuals throughout the world to take up arms in a global day of "rage" tomorrow, directed primarily at Jewish and Israeli institutions. We do not fall into this category, but we want to make sure we are as cautious as possible.

It pains us to have to write these types of emails to you, just as we know it pains you to have to read them. This is undoubtedly a frightening time for everyone, and we share in your feelings of unease, sadness and shock. Since we all know the global situation is rapidly evolving, we do ask you to please stay close to your phones and ask your child's other emergency contacts to also stay close to their phones.

          The point of terrorist attacks is to create fear and instill terror far beyond the reach of the terrorist groups. In that, Hamas has succeeded—for a time. I urge everyone to recognize that many Americans are feeling additional anxiety, anger, and fear, even if they have not been touched directly by the terror attack and war in Israel and Gaza. Trying to discuss or resolve questions about the status of Gaza and the West Bank through the lens of the Hamas terror attack and Israel’s declaration of war is not a good idea—at least not at this time.

Concluding Thoughts.

          The brewing humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza will test Biden, the American people, the world community, and the people of Israel. President Biden has sought to occupy a position of support, strength, and influence in America’s relationship with Israel. He has urged restraint and protection of civilian populations on two occasions (at least). Biden will no doubt continue to do so as the war unfolds. As the Post editorial board notes, Biden has “put the US in just the right place” and we are fortunate that he is leading our country at this fraught time.

          Despite all that is occurring in the Middle East, Americans face two elections in the next month that may determine the momentum in the 2024 contests at the state and federal levels. Elections in Ohio and Virginia in November demand our full attention even as we focus on the war in Israel. Indeed, as we watch helplessly as era-defining events rapidly unfold, spending time in community with others seeking to preserve democracy in America can be reassuring, calming, and confidence-inspiring.

          If you haven’t joined a grassroots group, now is the time to do so. If you are already in a group, consider extra meetings in October. Chatter about a government shutdown will increase and overlap with the November elections in Ohio and Virginia. People will need to talk and will want to do something to affect the outcome. Whether you are a leader or “in the field” volunteer, be sure to ask people how they are feeling and spend most of your time listening when they answer. We are living through extraordinary times and we must rely on one another to make it to the other side with our sanity and democracy intact.

          I will be in touch tomorrow with information on organizations that are providing relief. In the meantime, please keep sending suggestions. Thanks, and I will talk to you tomorrow. Stay strong!