In March, Trump issued an executive order that attempts to convert the Post Office into an instrument of voter suppression. The order “would require states to submit lists of eligible mail voters to the US Postal Service, which would be barred from sending ballots to anyone not on those lists.” CNN.
Of course, Trump has no authority over elections and, therefore, has no authority to order the Post Office to do what he cannot do himself.
In June, United States District Judge Indira Talwani granted summary judgment and a permanent injunction against Trump’s executive order on behalf of 23 states and D.C., finding the order was unconstitutional. See California v. Trump | Memorandum & Order.
Over the weekend, the Court of Appeals for the First Circuit denied Trump’s request to stay Judge Talwani’s injunction—thereby stopping Trump’s attempt to use the Post Office to suppress mail ballots in the 23 states and D.C.
On Monday, the Trump administration filed an emergency application for an administrative stay with the Supreme Court. If the Court grants the stay, it will effectively authorize the Post Office to implement Trump’s order to refuse mail ballots from voters not on the states’ approved list. If the Court denies the emergency application, it will effectively end Trump’s efforts to use the Post Office to suppress voting in the midterms.
The Court has ordered the states to file an opposition by August 3.
It is, of course, unsettling whenever Trump seeks relief from the Supreme Court. Time and again, the Court has granted Trump relief when he raised arguments that lower courts uniformly rejected as baseless. In a just world, the Court would deny Trump’s emergency application with a short order that says, “And don’t come back.”
But we are not in a just world, and the Supreme Court does not deserve our trust. That said, it is important that we have this fight now. We need to know the answer—win or lose. And—win or lose—we will win. Let me explain.
Every legal argument suggests that Trump should lose. As Judge Talwani wrote in her opinion, the executive order is not only unconstitutional but is also “ultra vires”—a legal doctrine that means Trump is acting outside the scope of his authority as president. For example, if Trump issued an executive order that said, “Everyone must purchase $100 worth of Trump cryptocurrency,” the order would not merely be unconstitutional—it would be ultra vires, or “beyond the powers.”
Indeed, in a different context (the presidential immunity decision), the Supreme Court majority wrote, “The President, meanwhile, plays no direct role in the process [of selecting electors], nor does he have authority to control the state officials who do.” Trump v. US, 596 U.S. at 627. Although the context is different, the rationale is the same.
On the other hand, if the Court grants an emergency stay, it will not only authorize a blunt voter suppression tactic, but it will also cause literal chaos 90 days before the midterms. In that event, voters of every party and demographic will be affected—Democrats, Republicans, independents, young, old, Latino, Black, and white.
That outcome would be outrageous. But if that is the hand we are dealt, Democrats are far better prepared than Republicans to overcome voter suppression. First, Democrats have been the object of voter suppression for decades—and they have built the legal and party infrastructure to overcome it. Second, for the last decade, grassroots Democrats have been laser-focused on registration and turnout efforts—the very tactics needed to replace the US Postal Service’s role in handling mail ballots.
So, let’s have this fight now. We should win in the Supreme Court, but if we do not, we will win in the precincts, neighborhoods, and congressional districts across the country. As with Trump’s mid-census redistricting scheme, he has miscalculated the cascading effects of his actions and underestimated the will of Democrats to fight back.
Responding to David French’s fearmongering in the NYTimes.
Hoo, boy! David French of the NYTimes scared the you-know-what out of many readers of this newsletter with his op-ed, “Opinion | How Trump and His Allies Can Corrupt the Midterms.” One reader casually mentioned the piece to me on Saturday, but since then I have received emails from readers saying things like “the article was the scariest thing I have read” about the midterms. I will address French’s op-ed below, but the short version is that David French makes a HUGE mistake in his analysis about how the House handles objections to the seating of representatives-elect.
Before I do, I want to say upfront that many readers do not like my frequent criticism of the NYTimes. For many readers, the Times is their hometown newspaper, and they have grown attached to it (in addition to respecting its journalism and investigative reporting). I understand that point of view. It is also the most important independent news outlet in the world. That carries a special responsibility, which is not always discharged in the manner I see fit. (That’s a joke; no angry emails, please.)
I want to acknowledge that I have noticed a decided shift in the NYTimes’ coverage about Trump in the last month or two. It is speaking the plain truth about the threat posed by Trump and his gross incompetence, often in the leading story each day. There is less “both-siderism” and “false equivalency.” I am encouraged and pleased. And, while this may be a coincidence, the Times recently lifted the 10-article cap on its “gift article” program for subscribers (like me) who want to share the Times’ stories and analysis. I applaud that move and hope it is because the Times rightly believes the best way to expand its reach is to provide excellent, fair, and accurate content, and then let that content sell subscriptions to the Times.
Back to David French’s op-ed, which posits a scenario in which the current House (in the 119th Congress) witnesses a Democratic wave in November 2026. Then, according to French, for the next two-and-a-half months, the “lame duck” House, controlled by Republicans, will entertain spurious objections to the seating of Democrats who have “flipped” seats formerly held by Republicans. French claims the “lame duck” Congress will thereby delay the seating of the newly elected Democratic representatives.
French writes that objections are
ultimately decided by a simple majority of the House, and the House can refuse to seat any member while the contestant’s challenge is pending. [¶]
This means that even if Democrats win a House majority after all the votes are counted this fall, one or more defeated Republican candidates could try to persuade the lame-duck Republican majority not to permit their Democratic opponents to take office while the challenge is pending.
French is wrong, and he should know better.
Objections to seating representatives-elect from the 2026 midterms will not be decided by the “lame duck Republican majority.” Per the Constitution, statute, judicial precedent, and House rules, objections to the seating of representatives are determined by the Congress to which the representatives are elected. Republicans control the House in the current Congress—the 119th. But the representatives-elect will be members of the 120th Congress—a different legislative body! Democrats will likely hold a majority in the 120th Congress, which will decide challenges to the election of its members.
Article I, § 5, cl. 1 of the Constitution says, “Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members.”
The Republican majority in the 119th House cannot judge the qualifications of a person elected to a future Congress, i.e., the 120th Congress. The 120th Congress decides objections to its “own members,” just as the 119th Congress decides objections to its “own members.”
Indeed, the term of every member of the 119th House expires on January 3, 2027, at 11:59 a.m. At that time, Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker, and Republicans will no longer have a majority—because the 119th Congress no longer exists. At that point, the new House—in the 120th Congress—will elect a Speaker and determine the qualifications of its members, including any objections.
French cites a number of historical precedents and legal treatises—all of which expose his error. For example, he cites an “explainer” article that in turn discusses the most recent contested election of a representative-elect. In that case, Rita Hart challenged Mariannette Miller-Meeks’s six-vote win in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District. The election was for a seat in the 117th Congress.
Rita Hart followed the rules for contesting her loss by lodging her objection with the clerk of the “lame-duck” House (the 116th). But it was the next House—the 117th—that decided Rita Hart’s challenge to Miller-Meeks, because the contested election did not relate to a member’s election to the 116th Congress.
If French wants to claim that the Republicans in the 119th Congress will ignore the Constitution, statutes, judicial precedent, and House rules to tell the 120th Congress who can be seated in a body over which the 119th Congress has no authority, he should say so directly. Of course, such a scenario flies in the face of the Constitution’s plain language and will be easily defeated.1
I have belabored this point because French’s op-ed has gained traction on social media. Expect to see it recycled through various alarmist websites that will uncritically repeat French’s doomsday scenario without questioning its faulty premises. In addition, major outlets are publishing articles this week about Trump’s alleged plot to “hijack” the election by using the military to seize voting machines and ballots. I won’t name the outlets because I don’t want to drive traffic to them.
It’s going to be a long haul between now and November. We will be buffeted by disinformation, misinformation, incompetence, ignorance, and alarmist self-promotion. We need to steel ourselves and refuse to accept every invitation to panic and surrender.
We are not potted plants. We are not helpless. We have agency. And we can refuse to follow anyone who tries to scare us by failing to tell us the whole story about the risks we face. Those risks are real, but that is not an excuse to distort, misrepresent, or exaggerate them. In addition, we should ignore anyone who writes about risks without addressing how we can mitigate them. We have all the “issue spotters” we need. We need leaders, organizers, and problem-solvers—like you!
Opportunity for Reader Engagement
Force Multiplier, this Thursday at 7 pm ET
Thursday July 30th at 7 pm ET to hear from four incredible leaders of the efforts to expand Democratic online messaging efforts.
We are privileged to be hosting Angelo Carusone, President & CEO of Media Matters (the nonprofit media watchdog and research organization); Esosa Osa, Founder and CEO of Onyx Impact (a nonprofit media organization dedicated to amplifying Black voices); Tara McGowan, founder and Publisher of Courier Newsroom, and Olivia Julianna, an influencer with more than 1.6 million followers who is also a program officer with Chorus (a mentorship program for pro-democracy content creators).
100% of your donation goes to the groups we are supporting: Courier Newsroom, Chorus, Onyx Impact, and Voto Latino. Please Register and Donate Here. And please tell your friends!
Join Indivisible’s Hands Off Our Vote! national call.
Thursday, July 30th at 8 pm ET.
Join people across the country for the kickoff call for Hands Off Our Vote, Indivisible’s national program to ensure all eligible voters get to cast their ballot, and that those ballots get counted. We’ll pull back the curtain on our strategy and theory of change, and walk through how you can step up to protect the vote no matter where you live. If you’re wondering how you can plug in to ensure free and fair elections this fall, join us July 30 and bring your friends, family, and fellow activists with you!
Hands Off Our Vote! · Indivisible
Concluding Thoughts.
Every time Trump has another panic attack about the midterms, he ratchets up the pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune to pass the SAVE America Act. But Thune has repeatedly told Trump that he not only lacks the votes to overcome the filibuster (necessary to bring the Act to the floor for a final vote), but also lacks the votes to pass the bill with a simple majority if it reaches a final vote. Trump simply refuses to hear that truth. See Talking Points Memo, Senate Poised to Once Again Collapse Into Chaos Over SAVE Act.
The “chaos” in the Senate described in the TPM article refers to several hardline Republicans threatening to object to a Senate recess until the SAVE Act is passed. Traditionally, the Senate has taken a recess during August. While the recess may be a luxury in some years, this year it is a necessity for several Senate Republicans facing tough re-election campaigns. If the Senate remains in session through August, it will disadvantage Susan Collins (ME), Jon Husted (OH), and Dan Sullivan (AK). Each is facing a Democratic challenger who would not be held hostage by Trump if the Senate failed to take a recess.
Trump is so desperate and afraid of losing the midterms that he is willing to risk losing three Senate Republicans in exchange for passing the SAVE Act. (Theoretically, Trump can afford to lose three seats, leading to a 50-50 tie, which can be broken by Vice President Vance.)
The point is this: Trump sees a blue wave in the distance, gathering momentum until it crashes over him in November. He knows he cannot win in a free and fair election, so he is pushing to pass the SAVE Act and enforce his executive order on the Post Office. While those actions are a measure of the risk we face, they are also a measure of Trump’s fear and desperation.
While nothing is settled until the votes are counted and the new Congress is seated, any objective observer would say that the Democrats are winning. I say that not to suggest that anyone can let up, but to encourage everyone to redouble their efforts. We are on the right path. Moreover, the margin of victory matters. If we take control of the House by 10 seats with 51% of the popular vote, that is less of a mandate than if we take control of the House by 10 seats with 60% of the popular vote.
Every voter suppression effort by Trump is a manifestation of his fear and desperation—not a sign of his strength. Remember that next time someone tries to tell you that Trump will overturn the results of the midterms. The one thing that Trump cannot overturn is a wave election with incontestable Democratic margins of victory. Let’s make that happen!
Stay strong, everyone!
Pro-Democracy protest photos
Please send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com.
A dedicated group stand out every Wednesday morning from 8-9:30
In Newton, MA and the antiwar message last week drew a constant barrage of honks (see photo below). Lots of support from passersby too - one woman drove by and returned afterward with her own sign, and a truck stopped, lights flashing, and the driver came over to take a photo for his daughter.
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I lead this protest every other Sunday in Mill Valley. We are at 150 Shoreline Hwy. where the traffic is heavy coming off the freeway to go to the beaches and Mount Tamalpais.
I designed most of the signs in these photos. I have other signs and banners that are not in these photos. I am happy to share the images (jpeg) for those who want to use them for their own signs.
Author’s note: for contact information, write to rbhubbell@gmail.com.
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This is my front yard in Bergen County, NJ. I have since crossed out the 16 and changed it to 18, adding 2 flags.
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Portland, OR. July 26
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July 27th message over I-495 on Seminary Rd., Silver Spring, MD. Today’s Badass Bridge Brigade’s Monday morning Seminary Rd/Beltway message promoted donations for Troy Jackson, newly nominated as the D Senate candidate in Maine, whose funds are dwarfed by Collins’ war chest.
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Boulder, CO
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1. Getting ready for a “Good Trouble” weekend funeral procession through Olympia, WA’s annual Capital LakeFair, carrying tombstones for everything we have lost during Trump years.
2. Preparing for a rally outside the notorious NW Detention Center in Tacoma, WA on Sat 7/25. Several hundred listened to speakers, sang and chanted to be sure those inside could hear that they are not forgotten.
3. More tombstones at the waterfront in Olympia WA on Sat evening, representing all the lives lost during ICE encounters and detention. They were held streetside during a vigil for the most recent victims of ICE violence.
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Engaged Defenders For Democracy had 11 folks and a puppy at their Sundays for Peace ☮️ in Oxford,N.C.
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Upper Valley Visibility Brigade & NH Bridge Brigade, Sun., July 26, 2026, I-89, Enfield, NH.
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San Jose, CA. Indivisible San Jose kicked off our Vote YES on Prop 40 overpass campaign today and we will soon be adding a NO on Prop 39 board to our signage.
Both signs will be part of our Visibility Brigade messaging until the Nov 3rd election, along with our VOTE sign.
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Service tonight at Charles Park, Beatrice, Nebraska. 27 attended, music & speakers - ACLU & locals.
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Indivisible from Egg Harbor, Wisconsin
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#Operation_Overpass
Clearwater, FL
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North Country Resilience volunteers displayed signs on two I-93 overpasses today. We’re sending photos of the Bethlehem, NH bridge. Lots of honks and waves from passing vehicles. Our messages: TRUMP MINIONS STEAL BILLIONS and RESIST. We are standing strong together!
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We are the San Lorenzo Valley Voices for Democracy gathering for protests every other weekend at the intersection of Hiway 9 and 236 in little Boulder Creek, Ca. Our numbers vary from about 40 to 400 for our No Kings Day 3. We also hold a food drive and have a voter registration team and tabling to register, answer questions and encourage our valley to vote. Pics are from 4th of July parade.
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Danvers Massachusetts Overpass Visibility action
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Wakefield Massachusetts Standout
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ICE Vigil Melrose Massachusetts
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Peterborough NH Our weekly Saturday rally followed nationwide theme: ICE OUT. We retrieved our signs from last winter’s Minneapolis ICE terrorism. June set a detention record, including one-day record of 73,400 detained. July expected to be higher.
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13 Attended, 100F Sunny & high humidity!
Rallying every Sunday since April 6th 2025
Gage County Courthouse
Beatrice, Nebraska
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Sharp Objects Louisville KY
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Lafayette, CO
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Indivisible Healdsburg, Healdsburg CA
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Singing Resistance New Haven,CT 7/26
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Lake Oswego, OR. Many honks against Trump’s fascist regime.
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Republicans win most state-wide races in Texas despite the fact that Texas is a Minority majority state. The picture is from a protest in Republican-majority Dripping Springs, a community 20 miles from Austin. The sign says “we support James Talarico, an inspiring candidate”
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Oakland, California.
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French relies on the fact that determinations by the House regarding contested elections are “non-justiciable,” i.e., not reviewable by courts. That is true, but the question of which Congress decides the qualifications of its members is a different question entirely that can and should be decided by the courts.
Sharing the link to the “Managing Editor’s” video of clips of your weekend appearances. The video was inspiring. And, THANK YOU!!!
https://youtu.be/aahksw9f8io?si=6ZrX2r29RtXv_eNR
Your warm message of rational thinking coupled with fervent and concrete calls to action are always a welcome dose of balance and calm. Thank you.