Meanwhile, we have an election to win . . .

July 5, 2025

The press and Democratic Party faithful are still trying to sort out between themselves how democracy works. In the meantime, we still have an election to win. The presidential election is monumentally consequential, but so too are the congressional and state races that will determine who will work with (or against) the president elected in November.

There are many fruitful paths to victory in 2024. Turnout is key. Convincing new voters to show up is also important. But there is a secret weapon that Democrats can use to materially improve the electoral outcomes. It relates to a phenomenon known as “down-ballot roll-off.”

Many ballots present a dizzying array of choices for dozens of federal, state, county, and municipal offices. Many voters who are motivated to show up to vote for president skip over—or “roll-off”—the down-ballot races, i.e., those races that appear near the bottom of the ballot.

The races are the “bottom” of the ballot frequently have the most immediate impact on the liberty, safety, and health of voters. State legislatures have taken over the primary role of deciding reproductive liberty; after the Loper Bright decision (no more deference to federal agency rulemaking), states may emerge as the primary market regulators. Local sheriffs set policing policy. City councils decide on issues like enforcement of rules regarding homelessness. School boards decide what your children can—and cannot be—taught.

So, voting top to bottom on a ballot is important. However, it turns out that some voters are reluctant to vote in races where they do not have perfect information about the candidates. But the voters who exhibit that reluctance tend to be Democratic and progressive voters. Republican voters exhibit no hesitancy in voting the party ticket, top to bottom of the ballot.

The consequence of this asymmetrical phenomenon is that Republicans win down ballot races that they would otherwise lose if Democrats did not exhibit “down-ballot roll-off.” In other words, enough Democrats show up to win the bottom of the ballot races, but hey don’t bother to vote on those races.

This is a hugely important problem. The wonderful organization Sister District has conducted an eye-opening study and is spreading the word to encourage Democrats to vote in every race, top to bottom of the ballot. If Democrats voted with the same consistency as Republicans from top to bottom of the ballot, it is possible that a dozen states that currently ban reproductive liberty would not have passed those bans. It doesn’t get any more real than that.

I recently interviewed Gaby Goldstein of Sister District about down-ballot roll-off. This is my first attempt to use a video interview in the newsletter, so be kind (to me). Gaby lays out the case for ending down-ballot roll-off in a compelling and professional manner. I, however, was looking down at my laptop to read the interview questions and appear distracted and shifty-eyed. (Kind of like the bad camera angle that plagued Joe Biden at the debate.)

But I digress. Watch the video or read the report to learn how you can help Sister District fight down-ballot roll-off. But it starts with you (and your family and friends). While you and they may not know the details of every race that features a Democrat and a Republican, you know enough about the respective visions of those parties to confidently pick the Democrat over the Republican in the absence of any other information.  

If we could eliminate down-ballot roll-off, Democrats could increase their state-level victories without motivating a single new voter to show up. Ture, we should also increase turnout, but asking people who are already in the voting booth to complete their ballot top to bottom is lowest hanging fruit there is. We should make the best of the opportunity.

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Emails from readers.

I received hundreds of emails from readers today. I was unable to respond due to fun activities like picnics, 100-yard “hikes” with the grand-daughters (a three-hour endeavor), and the elaborate preparations for barbequing a tri-tip. Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts. I appreciate it.

Concluding Thoughts

Once again, Heather Cox Richardson knocks the ball out of the park in an interview about the stakes of the election, the debate, and the Court’s immunity decision. See ‘We have never been here as a country’: Historian Heather Cox Richardson puts Trump immunity ruling into perspective | CNN. HCR’s interview is essential content for people looking for a steady, calm, and wise voice during these difficult times.

I will be in touch tomorrow with a short note to open the Comments section.

Stay strong!