Leave nothing on the field of battle!

October 18, 2022

          Several prominent analysts are proclaiming that Republicans have seized the advantage in the final weeks of the 2022 midterms. I won’t argue the data. I will argue the moment. Never before in American history have we faced the elimination of an existing constitutional right for 51% of the population. Never before have we faced a party whose platform seeks to end the very democracy they seek to rule. Never before have we faced a party whose leader openly promotes white nationalism, antisemitism, and bigotry against LGBTQ people. Never before have we faced a Supreme Court whose first and only loyalty is to a partisan, religious agenda that mocks the language of the Constitution the justices swore to defend and uphold.

          Do polling models account for those unprecedented conditions? I don’t know. Do polling models account for the fact that increases in registration among women are driven by outrage over the ruling Dobbs? I don’t know—and I don’t care. Polls are not destiny. They are snapshots filled with biases and agendas and sound-bite generators designed by institutions shouting “Look at me, look at me” as they compete for their twenty seconds of fame in the waning days of the midterms.

          Is the American electorate evenly divided in many states? Yes. Will many races be decided by less than 1 percentage point of the vote? Yes. Do Democrats face an unfair playing field that means they must outperform Republicans by 2 to 3 percentage points to win? Yes. Is the election over? Not even close! In most of America, the election hasn’t begun, but analysts are elbowing one another aside to be the first to “predict” the outcome and thereby establish (or burnish) their reputations as skilled prognosticators. They may as well flip a coin in many races—and, indeed, may be doing so.

          You will decide the result of the 2022 midterms, not the pollsters. Three weeks is plenty of time to affect the outcome. Direct all of your nervous energy into action. We may win, we may lose, but shame on us if we leave anything on the field of battle.

Reminder re Zoom fundraiser with Tim Ryan on Tuesday, October 18.

          Thanks to everyone for the strong response to the Zoom fundraiser for Rep. Tim Ryan, who is running against J.D. Vance for the US Senate seat in Ohio. Please send suggested questions for me to ask Tim during our hour-long chat (to rbhubbell@gmail.com).

Tim went toe-to-toe with Vance this evening in a tough debate. The Senate race in Ohio is the tightest in the nation and represents an opportunity for an upset victory for Democrats.

          There is still time to register for the Zoom fundraiser (donate any amount to join), and you will receive a Zoom link after registering. Donate and register here: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/na101822virtual. The Zoom meeting will take place on Tuesday, October 18, 2022, at 5:30 PM Pacific / 8:30 PM Eastern.

          If you have already donated and have not received a link to the Zoom, please reach out to sam@timforoh.com.

          Hope to see you tomorrow!

Robert Reich nails the GOP lies about Democrats.

          Reader Phil S. called my attention to a terrific blog by Robert Reich on Substack, The 3 biggest GOP lies of the midterms. I highly recommend Reich’s essay in its entirety, but in case you are pressed for time, here are the high points of Reich’s effective messaging to rebut GOP lies:

Lie No. 1: “Democrats are soft on crime.”

• Response: “Rubbish. Rising crime rates are due to the proliferation of guns, which Republicans refuse to control.”

Lie No. 2: “Inflation is due to Biden’s spending, and wage increases.”

• Response: “Baloney. Biden’s spending can’t be causing our current inflation because inflation has broken out everywhere around the world, often at much higher rates than in the US.”

Lie No. 3: “Democrats voted to hire an army of IRS agents who will audit and harass the middle class.”

• Response: “Wrong. The IRS won’t be going after the middle class. It will be going after ultra-wealthy tax cheats. The IRS has said that audit rates for households earning $400,000 or under will remain same.”

Another “under the radar” victory for President Biden.

          For reasons that remain unclear but maddening, the media has again ignored another major achievement by President Biden. Max Boot discusses a diplomatic agreement brokered by the US that has eluded previous administrations for forty years. See Max Boot, Washington Post, Opinion | Biden just pulled off a big diplomatic victory — and almost no one noticed. The agreement relates to a seemingly technical issue (a maritime demarcation) between two countries that have no diplomatic relations—Israel and Lebanon. As Boot explains,

Trump and Netanyahu couldn’t get a deal done; Biden and [Israeli Prime Minister] Lapid did. Israel’s security establishment is firmly in favor of the deal not only because it will help safeguard Israel’s natural gas fields but also because it will help bolster the Lebanese government and economy. Israel does not want a failed state next door.

“Lebanon has, for the first time, entered a kind of de facto recognition of Israel and its borders,” writes Daniel B. Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel.

That’s something for which the Biden administration deserves a lot of credit — just as the Trump administration deserved credit for the Abraham Accords. It just goes to show that diplomacy does pay off sometimes — even if we don’t always give it the attention it deserves.

Trump defrauded the American people by overcharging the Secret Service for hotel rooms.

           The Trump administration claimed that it provided Secret Service agents rooms “for free” or “at cost” when those agents were required to stay at a Trump-owned property. The House Oversight Committee has discovered that Trump charged the Secret Service a daily room rate of $1,148 on forty occasions—a rate that is neither “free” nor “at cost.” See NYTimes, Trump Hotels Charged Secret Service Exorbitant Rates, House Inquiry Finds.

          This should not be just another “Can you believe what Trump did?” story. Someone lied to the government and to the American public about self-dealing by Trump. That person needs to be prosecuted. See 118 U.S. Code § 371 - Conspiracy to commit offense or to defraud United States  (Imposing criminal liability where “two or more persons conspire either to commit any offense against the United States, or to defraud the United States, or any agency thereof in any manner or for any purpose.”)

Trump prioritized politics over lives during pandemic.

          One advantage of control of Congress is that Democrats are able to conduct investigations into the way that Trump corrupted federal agencies to abandon their core function to serve as political cheerleaders for the twice-impeached president. See WaPo, CDC officials describe intense pressure, job threats from Trump White House.

          We all witnessed in real-time Trump’s political pressure on medical and scientific advisers to cover up the truth about the pandemic. Still, the investigation by the House select subcommittee on the coronavirus crisis is shocking in its description of the breadth, depth, and depravity of Trump’s efforts to conceal the spread of the coronavirus and the damage it was inflicting on America’s health. For example,

• Trump cronies edited CDC scientific publications to include a political spin.

• Political lackeys drafted dramatic changes in health policy relating to immigration over strenuous objections from epidemiologists and public health officials.

• Trump’s enablers concealed information regarding hydroxychloroquine—a drug being promoted by Trump despite the absence of any scientific evidence of effectiveness in avoiding infections, preventing illness, or speeding recovery.

          All of this is old news, but it is a stark reminder that Trump was willing to risk the lives of Americans to benefit his partisan interests. It simply doesn’t get any worse than that. And yet, few Americans hold that deadly legacy against Trump and his enablers in 2022. It is a point worth remembering and discussing in dozens of hotly contested races across the nation.

Concluding Thoughts.

          We may win, we may lose, but shame on us if we leave anything on the field of battle! Direct all of your nervous energy into action. Three weeks is plenty of time to affect the outcome. We have come a long way from predictions of a “red wave”—let’s not relent in the final weeks!

Talk to you tomorrow!