"It's on us."

December 4, 2023

          The negotiated pause in the fighting between Israel and Hamas ended last Friday. The US is reportedly pressuring Israel (directly) and Hamas (through Qatar) to resume negotiations. See Times of Israel, Blinken, Qatari PM discuss ongoing efforts to free more hostages, increase Gaza aid. Resumption of a pause in fighting is increasingly urgent as the IDF shifts its focus to southern Gaza, where an already dense population has swelled with 1.7 million refugees from northern Gaza.

          Regional stability continues to be threatened as Houthi rebels in Yemen (backed by Iran) used drones and ballistic missiles to attack three commercial ships in the Red Sea. Some reports claim that a US naval ship was attacked, although an official statement by US Central Command discounted that report. See Politico, US threatens ‘appropriate responses’ after Iran-backed assault on commercial ships.

          Per Politico,

While Defense Department officials said they did not believe the militants were targeting the U.S. warship [the] attacks on the commercial vessels “represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security,” Central Command said.

[The] U.S. has “every reason to believe” they were “fully enabled by Iran,” according to the release. “The United States will consider all appropriate responses in full coordination with its international allies and partners.”

          President Biden is managing the crisis with little help from Congress. According to a survey of Capitol Hill staff, less than 9% of House members support a cease-fire. (Per Punchbowl News, behind a paywall.) It is not clear whether or when Congress will pass an aid bill for Israel and what conditions, if any, will be attached to that aid. Five weeks ago, Speaker Johnson said he was “confident” an aid bill would pass “this week,” i.e. the week of October 29. That didn’t happen.

          And aid for Ukraine seems to have been shunted to back of the legislative calendar—a dire development as Ukraine endures a war of attrition by Russia. See Politico, NATO should be ready for ‘bad news’ from Ukraine, Stoltenberg warns. The warning by the NATO Secretary-General came as Vladimir Putin “signed a decree on Friday to increase the number of soldiers on active duty by some 170,000 to a total of 1.3 million.

          As I struggle for something positive to say about two major wars that are affecting tens of millions of civilians, the most obvious point is that managing one international crisis challenges most presidents. Biden is handling two. It is inevitable that he will have supporters and detractors in his handling of both crises. But Biden is at least listening to advisors and constituencies as he grapples with seemingly unsolvable problems. It could be otherwise.

Ugh. This is a disappointing setback in the fight against the climate crisis.

          The UN is sponsoring the annual climate Conference of Parties 28 (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The “president” of the conference is Dr. Sultan Al Jaber of the UAE, who also serves as the head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. At an online conference of attendees, Dr. Al Jaber responded to a question about phasing out fossil fuels by saying (in part),

There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C. . . . [S]how me the roadmap for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves.

See The Guardian, Cop28 president says there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels.

          There is so much wrong with Dr. Al Jaber’s statement it is difficult to know where to begin. But at root, Al Jaber asserts the false (and dangerous) dichotomy that there is an incompatible and binary choice is between “jobs” (socioeconomic development) and phase-out of reliance on fossil fuels. If the world always prioritizes the maximization of jobs in the fossil fuels industry in the short run, we are simply deferring the cost (and disruption) to future generations.

          Dr. Al Jaber is a minister of the UAE and the head of an oil company. The conflicts of interest in allowing him to run a climate conference are so obvious they hurt. The UN has set back the cause of fighting climate change by allowing a heavily conflicted representative of a fossil-fuel-dependent economy and the head of an oil company to run the environmental conference.

Passing of former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor.

          Former Justice Sandra Day O’Connor leaves a complicated legacy. She was a trailblazer who opened opportunities for generations of women who followed in her footsteps. She defended reproductive liberty (and Roe v. Wade) when reactionary fundamentalists made their first assault twenty years ago. She brought a state legislator’s sensibility and restraint to the Court. But on the most important decision in her tenure on the Court—Bush v. Gore—she voted to disenfranchise voters in Florida and (by extension) all voters in America.

          Her complicated legacy is addressed by one of her former clerks, Oona A. Hathaway, who is a professor of law and political science at Yale University. See NYTimes op-ed, I Clerked for Justice O’Connor. She Was My Hero, but I Worry About Her Legacy. (Accessible to all.)

          Hathaway writes,

She believed that the most important decisions about how to govern the country belonged to the political branches and to state legislatures, not to a court sitting in Washington. . . . .She wanted to decide the case before her and provide a bit of guidance to the lower courts as necessary but leave the rest to the democratic process.

[T]his made reading the opinion she joined in Bush v. Gore all the more heartbreaking. . .  The decision, widely criticized for its shoddy reasoning, was the opposite of the careful, modest decisions she had spent her career crafting. It disenfranchised voters whose ballots had been rejected by ballot-counting machines in the interests of finality — in the process substituting the judgment of the court for the expressed will of the people.

The court showed that it could — and would — behave in nakedly political ways. It had given into the temptation to engage in ends-driven reasoning that was utterly unpersuasive to those who did not already share its view of the right result. In doing so, the court might have opened the door to what has now become something of a habit.

Speaker Mike Johnson prioritizes New York congressional seats.

          Speaker Mike Johnson made one of his first trips as Speaker to New York to support endangered Republicans in the House. See Politico, Johnson makes NY fundraising swing for battleground House races loom. He held his event in a tony steak house in downtown Manhattan—which is an odd place to reach voters but a good place to find money. But votes count more than money, so I remind everyone that helping to register new voters in NY is one of the most effective ways to help flip the House in 2024 (and win the special election for George Santos’s vacant seat).

          Only 20% of eligible 18-year-olds are registered in New York. The Civics Center published a Substack newsletter on how to help young New Yorkers register to vote. In a close election, newly registered voters may make the difference. Check out The Civics Center, 9,000 18-year-olds have an opportunity to register and vote in the election to fill George Santos’s vacant seat.

          The best thing you can do is to forward the information to a young New Yorker eligible to vote and urge them to register and vote. Or, you can donate to The Civics Center to help it register young voters across the nation.

Oh, geez! Now “Never Trumpers” are blaming Democrats for Trump.

          Reader Ellen T. sent a note about a Bloomberg op-ed that appeared in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. It is an example of an increasingly prevalent genre of political commentary in which Republicans who do not support Trump blame Democrats for Trump's existence. I can’t link to the Star-Tribune article because of paywall issues, but I think this Bloomberg version is available: See Clive Crook op-ed in Bloomberg, Democrats Empower Trump by Ignoring the Collapse of Trust. (Mr. Crooks is a member of Bloomberg’s editorial board.)

          According to Crook, Democrats are to blame for Trump because:

• They chose a “flawed” candidate to run against Trump in 2016.

• They dismiss claims of a rigged election in 2020 despite “popular concerns.”

• They fail to apply the law “evenhandedly” to Trump and Joe Biden.

• They “hail” the successes of Bidenomics despite the “feelings” of Republicans that the economy is bad.

• They failed to “surface a better candidate” for the 2024 election.

          So, Mr. Crook, your points are noted: You don’t think Democrats should be Democrats. That is not helpful advice.

          Here is a point you might consider: Since you agree that Trump is “dangerous” and should be defeated, it would really be helpful if you tried to convince your Republican friends of that fact. Trash-talking the Democrat party does not seem like a helpful way to achieve that goal. How about directing your editorial talents to explain why Trump is dangerous and unfit to be re-elected? Asking for a friend.

The hypocrisy of the chair of the Florida Republican Party and founder of Moms for Liberty.

          I have hesitated to report on this story because the facts are still developing, but public reporting provides a basis for commenting about the incredible hypocrisy of two GOP leaders in Florida. In short, the Chair of the Florida GOP (Christian Ziegler) is married to the co-founder of Moms for Liberty (the reactionary group that terrorized PTAs across the nation with book-bannings, teacher firings, and curriculum cutting).

          But, most critically, the chair of the Florida GOP and his Mom’s for Liberty wife (Bridget Ziegler) harassed and demeaned LGBTQ people in Florida (and across the nation). So, it is shocking—or entirely predictable?—that Christian Zeigler has been accused of raping a woman after a planned three-way sexual encounter with Christian Zeigler, Bridget Ziegler, and the rape victim was called off. Per reporting, the female rape victim called off the planned encounter when Bridget Ziegler canceled at the last minute. See WaPo, Florida GOP chairman under fire as more details emerge in rape inquiry.

          Thus, while Christian and Bridget Ziegler were harassing and demeaning LGBTQ people, they were—allegedly—involved in a three-way sexual relationship that included gay or bi-sexual activity.

          Let’s put aside Zeigler’s sex life and focus on their hypocrisy. While condemning gay and bisexual people, they were secretly living lives as LGBTQ people (if the allegations are true). DeSantis has called on Christian Ziegler to resign. Bridget Ziegler has gone radio silent. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if they defended themselves by saying, “Hey; we were wrong. LGBTQ people are just like you and me. And we should accept them for who they are.” But the rape allegations make this whole story darker.

          At the very least, the entire Florida GOP should stare in the mirror and have an honest conversation about their campaign to demean and stigmatize LGBTQ people. If that happened, maybe some good could come of this tragic situation (by which I am referring to the alleged rape).

Opportunities for reader engagement.

          I received two requests to promote events from friends of the newsletter.

Focus for Democracy.

Focus for Democracy is hosting a year-end event on Tuesday, December 5th at 5PM Pacific/8PM Eastern. They will provide their evidence-based recommendations for winning the election and offer attendees an opportunity to participate in their largest fundraising effort ever, to maximize the early dollars that can have the most impact on the 2024 election.

Click here to register: https://tinyurl.com/F4D5Dec

And

From Force Multiplier

Meet Sen. Jacky Rosen (NV), Tuesday December 5, 2023, 7-8:00 pm ET, On Zoom (A link will be sent on the day of the event)

          To hold the Democratic Majority in the Senate in 2024, we need to defend every seat. Jacky Rosen is running for re-election in a state where the last Senatorial election and the last two Presidential elections have been decided by 2.4% or less. In 2022 the Senate race was won by less than 1%. To hold the Senate, we will have to win another close race in 2024.  Her likely opponent is a staunch anti-abortion ultra-conservative. Senator Rosen has done a great job bringing jobs and resources to Nevada. 

          Sen. Rosen needs our support now! Early support discourages challengers, builds year-round voter engagement programs and enables the Senator to respond to opposition attacks. Please support the Senator by registering and donating at this link. 

Concluding Thoughts.

          I confess that it is annoying to hear from all sides about how “Democrats” must step in to save democracy. Over the last month, we have heard from current and former Republicans, Never Trumpers, neo-cons, Democratic consultants, and Independents about what Democrats should be doing to defeat Trump. It’s never their responsibility or fault, it’s always ours. In their view, it’s on us, not them. So be it.

          But if we pause for a moment and summon the discipline to ignore their criticism, we can see the common thread of their commentary is that Democrats are the bulwark of democracy. They aren’t criticizing us (really); they are pleading for us to save them. If they thought they could change the outcome by persuading Republicans, they would do so. The fact that they focus their energy on Democrats is a back-handed compliment. They believe we can do it and can’t resist sharing their thoughts with us in their own special way. They are right. We can do it.

          Talk to you tomorrow!