Ignore the polls!

October 27, 2022

          Wednesday brought a torrent of news on multiple fronts, but most can wait because they are longer-term stories. As the election draws nearer, the clash between last-minute efforts to get out the vote and relentless “election night” coverage of an election night that is twelve days away is becoming exhausting. Although I would usually give a pep talk here, you are no doubt tiring of exhortations in my voice. So, I will allow someone else to do the exhorting. I urge you to read every word of Dan Pfeiffer’s fabulous post on Substack, The Message Box, “Why You Should Ignore the Polls,” subtitled, “Stop torturing yourself and get off the Pollercoaster.”

           Pfeiffer’s essay is so good that I hesitate to call out specific passages, but here is the gist of his argument:  

I am not telling you to dismiss the polls that you don’t like or engage in unskewing the bad ones. I am telling you to ignore them all. For everyone other than the ad-makers and decision-makers at the party committees and Super PACs, the polls serve no purpose. None. Zero. Zilch. They are mood-altering statistical drugs.

No one knows what’s going to happen in this election. It’s one of the most unusual in history. This election is happening in the middle of a strange economy and less than two years after an attempt to violently overthrow the government. The public broadly supports the Biden agenda and is vehemently opposed to the Republican effort to overturn Roe v Wade.

Ask yourself this question — how will the latest poll affect what you are going to do over the next 13 days? Will you volunteer fewer hours, donate less, or encourage fewer friends to vote?

We are in the final stretch. There is nothing left to do but persuade and mobilize.

          After reading Pfeiffer’s essay, I had two reactions: (a) I wish I had written that, and (b) why haven’t I already subscribed to Pfeiffer’s blog? (I have remedied the latter but have no hope of matching Pfeiffer’s pith.) Best of all, Pfeiffer directs you to Vote Save America 2022, which includes valuable information regarding voting and volunteering.

          And for those of you who are tired of seeing me in Zoom fundraisers, I can recommend a special treat. The national treasure Heather Cox Richardson will be hosting an event for the DNC Voter Protection Volunteer Recruitment team on Monday, October 31 at 2:00 PM Eastern / 11:00 AM Pacific. Here is a note of explanation from a staffer with the DNC Voter Protection team who asked me to promote this event:

The DNC Civic Engagement and Voter Protection Team would like to invite you to join us for a Voter Protection Volunteer Recruitment & Appreciation Event with Historian Heather Cox Richardson, taking place on Monday, October 31 at 2:00 PM Eastern / 11 AM Pacific. 

          With Election Day less than two weeks away, we wanted to take a moment to thank everyone who has been volunteering with us and to invite everyone who hasn't signed up yet to join with us to help protect the vote this year. We welcome our dedicated volunteers around the country to participate and request that you recruit at least one friend to volunteer for voter protection this year. Please register here. You will be provided the direct Zoom link upon registration via email. 

          I know that thousands of the readers of this newsletter are devoted followers of Heather Cox Richardson’s Letters from an American. (If you are not, you really should check it out.) Participating in an event with Professor Richardson to generate support for the DNC Voter Protection Project will do good and feel good. Voter protection is particularly important in light of the recent reports of MAGA vigilante poll watchers. The DNC is doing the hard work of voter protection across the nation. Help them out!

Judd Legum is keeping track of corporations contributing to the Sedition Caucus.

          In the immediate aftermath of the insurrection on January 6th, many corporations announced “suspensions” of donations to politicians that had voted to overturn the election. Some corporations are keeping their promise not to support the Sedition Caucus, but some have reneged. In Legum’s latest post in Popular Information, he discusses Amazon’s backsliding. See Judd Legum, Amazon puts January 6 in the rearview mirror: “It's been more than 21 months.”

          Amazon defended its renewed contributions to the Sedition Caucus with the following callous and insensitive statement:

When we announced shortly after the attack on the Capitol in January 2021 that we would suspend donations to members of Congress who voted against certifying the results of the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, it was not intended to be permanent. It’s been more than 21 months since that suspension and, like a number of companies, we’ve resumed giving to some members.

          The people who run Amazon’s political action fund have lost touch with reality—and the American people. The notion that “21 months” is enough time to “let bygones be bygones” among traitors and insurrectionists is offensive. The antidote is to shine a light on Amazon’s reprehensible decision. Share Judd Legum’s post widely. It’s important! If we can change Amazon’s practices, other corporations will follow!

Trump’s increasing legal jeopardy.

          It is difficult to keep up with the many legal proceeding that threaten Trump. But a new revelation suggests that there is an entirely new basis for convicting Trump of obstruction of justice. The NYTimes and Politico have filed requests with Chief Judge Beryl Howell “to unseal secret court documents detailing former President Donald Trump’s effort to prevent former aides from providing testimony to a grand jury investigating efforts to subvert the 2020 election.” See Politico, Judge to consider unsealing Trump grand jury filings.

          Let’s pause for a moment on the description of the documents that the media is seeking, i.e., documents relating to Trump’s efforts “to prevent former aides from providing testimony to a grand jury.” Such conduct is the very definition of obstruction of justice. The fact that a grand jury is investigating Trump’s witness tampering suggests that Trump is in serious jeopardy. But as with all things, timing is everything. Let’s hope that the DOJ acts as soon as possible.

What about that talk of impeaching Biden, Harris, Garland, etc.?

          The Atlantic is reporting on chatter in the GOP about impeaching Biden, Harris, Garland, Mayorkas, Blinken, and any number of other administration officials. See The Atlantic, The Impeachment of Joe Biden. Such talk is disconcerting and maddening, especially because it is being driven by the MAGAiest of MAGA extremists: Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Jim Jordan, et al.

          Should we worry? Yes, in the sense that “retaliatory impeachments” would be the destruction of another democratic norm. No, in the sense that (a) the impeachments would be “show trials” that would never result in a conviction in the Senate, and (b) Republicans would have to put on evidence of “high crimes and misdemeanors.” In large part, GOP complaints about the Biden administration relate to Biden’s exercise of executive power—which Republicans love when they are in office.

          So, will they really claim that Biden “abused power” by issuing executive orders relating to immigration, the economy, energy, and public health? (Sound familiar? Trump did all that, and more.) In other words, it’s one thing to fantasize about impeaching Biden, it’s quite another to come up with a reason that will not undermine GOP orthodoxy about “the unitary executive.”

Is Ron DeSantis in legal trouble?

          Ron DeSantis’s cruel stunt of deceiving immigrants in Texas to take a flight to Martha’s Vineyard may have violated Florida law. A Florida public accountability organization filed a records request for information about the scheme. DeSantis has resorted to several efforts to delay release of the records until after the midterms—which would violate the provisions of state law and a court order regarding the timing of the release of the records. See The Hill, Judge orders release of DeSantis migrant flight records.

          DeSantis claims that he should not be forced to release the records now because he plans to release them in December. Huh? The only plausible explanation for DeSantis’s nonsensical defense is that the records suggest DeSantis’s stunt violated Florida law—a fact that, if true, might affect his bid for reelection.

Although a Florida state court has ordered the release of the records, DeSantis plans to appeal the order. Here’s the point: If DeSantis had nothing to hide, he would simply produce the records now. The records will be produced eventually, at which point Floridians (and all Americans) can see for themselves if Ron DeSantis violated Florida law to pull off a political stunt.

Founding Member videoconference on Thursday, October 27th.

          Founding Members—there is a monthly videoconference on Thursday, October 27th at 3:00 PM Pacific / 6:00 PM Eastern. Details and Zoom link were sent previously. Please email me if you need the link.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Dan Pfeiffer calls polls, “mood-altering statistical drugs” that should be ignored, except by professionals planning campaign strategy. That said, I am going to deliberately give you a “mood-altering statistical drug”—if only to prove Pfeiffer’s point. A polling firm in Pennsylvania that mostly serves Republican clients conducted a poll for The Federalist about all the usual indicators of Biden’s favorability. As summarized by The Federalist in its article on the poll, Biden is underwater on virtually every issue, blah, blah, blah . . . .

          But The Federalist failed to mention that in the question about a head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump today, Biden wins by 4 percentage points. (See Question 12.) Oh, and in a head-to-head matchup between Kamala Harris and Trump today, Harris wins by 15 percentage points. (See Question 13.) Should we believe the poll? No! We should ignore it, as Pfeiffer advises. But I hope I have altered your mood because “We are in the final stretch. There is nothing left to do but persuade and mobilize.” We need you fired up and energized!

          Talk to you tomorrow!