"Ignore the impeachment behind the curtain."

July 26, 2023.

          Speaker Kevin McCarthy is reportedly warming to the idea of an impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden. Do not waste time fretting over that possibility. Don’t get me wrong; such an inquiry would be an outrage of grotesque proportions. But it would be a counterproductive clown show that will further damage GOP prospects in 2024. And if recent history is a guide, Democrats will run circles around hapless, outclassed Republicans attempting to manufacture a crime out of swamp gas and wishful thinking.

          Like the Wizard of Oz—who created distractions from behind a curtain to conceal his impotence—House Republicans must distract the public’s attention from their inability to legislate. Republicans hold the majority in the chamber of Congress that must originate all spending bills, but the GOP caucus has been rendered impotent, riven by petty feuds, outsized egos, and monumental ignorance. What better way to distract attention from their shortcomings than to chase wild conspiracies that forever recede into the distance like mirages, conveniently disappearing when Democrats demand evidence to support baseless charges?

          The grounds for impeaching President Biden are unclear and do not matter. Any excuse will do because the point of the exercise is to create soundbites for Fox News that contain the words “Biden” and “impeachment” in the same sentence. The vote on a resolution to initiate an impeachment hearing will further damage Republicans elected in districts Joe Biden won in 2020. According to leaked reports of a GOP caucus meeting held on Monday, those vulnerable Republicans are voicing strong opposition to being forced to vote on a resolution to initiate an impeachment inquiry. The mere act of initiating the inquiry will diminish GOP prospects for retaining control of the House in 2024.

          And the inquiry in the House and trial in the Senate will further damage the GOP. In both chambers of Congress, Democrats will be able to call witnesses. Democrats will call Rudy Giuliani’s associate and co-conspirator, Lev Parnas, who will testify that the allegations about Hunter Biden and Burisma were fabricated with Giuliani’s encouragement. Parnas has offered to testify as follows:

Never, during any of my communications with Ukrainian officials or connections to Burisma, did any of them confirm or provide concrete facts linking the Bidens to illegal activities.

The truth is that everyone, from Giuliani [to] Devin Nunes and his colleagues, to the people at FOX News, knew that these allegations against the Bidens were false. There has never been any factual evidence, only conspiracy theories spread by people who knew exactly what they were doing.

          Democrats will call Bill Barr, who will testify that he authorized a US attorney to investigate Hunter Biden without restriction and that there was no basis for indicting Hunter or Joe Biden when Barr left office.

          And as explained by Ed Krassenstein on Twixter,

This means that Rudy Giuliani and the repair shop owner would have to testify under oath and explain how Rudy Giuliani was attempting to get Hunter Biden's laptop from the Russians years prior to it turning up in the repair shop.

It would require forensic experts to say that additional folders were created on Hunter Biden's laptop after Giuliani obtained it, and months after the FBI got a copy.

          As usual, Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo has published the smartest analysis on the issue. See Learning to Love Impeachment—Talking Points Memo. (This article may be behind a paywall; apologies.) Marshall writes, in part,

Impeach Joe Biden? Go for it. See you at the trial. And good luck with that. [¶]

I see nothing wrong with a trial based on transparently nonsensical claims. In fact, every time Freedom Caucus weirdos hold the floor and national spotlight it hurts Republican standing. Public opinion polls and election results leave little doubt about this. Air the whole thing. Remove whatever sting it has left. [¶]

Is this the political and parliamentary world we’d choose to live in? Probably not. But it’s silly to hold on to symbols [like impeachment] in a world in which they’ve become meaningless. Embrace the reality of the moment and the opportunities it offers.

          The “opportunities impeachment offers” include driving a stake through the heart of the ridiculous lies promoted by oafish examiners like Jim Jordan, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and James Comer.

The opportunities include demonstrating the difference between a Democratic-led House that passes historic legislation to improve the economy while fighting the climate crisis and a GOP House that wastes everyone’s time with revenge politics that go nowhere.

The opportunities include giving skilled lawyer-legislators like Jamie Raskin, Dan Goldman, Adam Schiff, and Zoe Lofgren the ability to defend Joe Biden from the well of the Senate as they torch the incoherent yammerings of vapid culture warriors whose only strategy is to stamp their feet and shout.

          In a world where Republicans are willing to reduce impeachment to the GOP analog of a Soviet show trial, we should not fear impeachment. We should accept the challenge as an opportunity to humiliate Republicans in their own backyard in nationally televised hearings. Republicans may just be stupid enough to impeach Joe Biden. If they do, they will regret that decision for a long time.

President Biden Proclaims Emmett Till National Monument.

          President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Brent Leggs (Director of the African American Cultural Heritage Action Fund) spoke at a ceremony recognizing the creation of the Emmett Till and Mamie Till-Mobley National Monument. Each spoke movingly of Emmett Till’s tragedy and his mother’s courage. A video of the remarks is here: Biden signs proclamation for monument honoring Emmett Till and mother Mamie Till-Mobley | PBS NewsHour.

          The remarks are worth watching. For me, the most genuine, human moment was when President Biden went off script to say that when he was preparing his remarks, he had to “temper his anger” after reading the gruesome facts of Emmett Till’s murder anew. It reminded me (again) that Joe Biden is at his best when he is channeling the feelings of the American people. Off-script, speaking from the heart. He is a good man.

Indictment watch?

          The media is on indictment watch, vying for the first pictures of Trump walking into a federal courthouse in Washington, DC. While the timing of any indictment is newsworthy, it is being over-hyped. But Professor Laurence Tribe and former prosecutor Dennis Aftergut are thinking about the potential charges. See Slate, The Supreme Court Might Have Just Handed Jack Smith a Powerful New Tool.

Per leaks from the Trump defense camp, the target letter included a reference to 18 USC 241, which makes it a crime for two or more persons to “conspire to injure, threaten, or intimidate a person in the United States in the free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege secured by the Constitution.”

          As Tribe and Aftergut note, a recent decision by the Supreme Court has relevance to a charge under Section 241 for intimidating and threatening V.P. Mike Pence in his role presiding over the count of electoral ballots. They write,

In Counterman v. Colorado, the court held 7–2 that “a mental state of recklessness” for threatening violence is sufficient to prove “true threats,” words that “lie outside the bounds of the First Amendment’s protection.” Recklessness means that the person issuing the threat “consciously disregarded a substantial risk that his communications would be viewed as threatening violence.”

That shoe fits Trump like custom footwear measured and made in Milan. [¶]

The context on Jan. 6 made absolutely clear that Trump’s words were meant to put a target on Pence’s back. With the raging Capitol mob already inside the halls of Congress, Trump’s ripping Pence for lack of courage was reckless beyond imagination.

          The Counterman opinion was decided on June 27, 2023. If the indictment includes a charge under Section 241 for intimidating or threatening Mike Pence, special prosecutor Jack Smith may need only prove that Trump acted recklessly in making threats against Mike Pence if he failed to send the electoral ballots back to the states.

Elon Musk promotes vaccine conspiracy theory and deletes fact check that contradicted his claim.

          First, I referred to “Twixter” in an article above. That is not a mistake. Twitter has rebranded itself as “X” to prove it is where all the cool kids hang out. I invented “Twixter” as a mash-up of Twitter and X to mock Twitter’s ill-fated rebranding. Think “New Coke.” Feel free to share. (Twixter is also a neologism that refers to people “trapped between adolescence and adulthood”—which upon reflection applies equally well to Elon Musk.)

          Second, Bronny James—the son of NBA legend LeBron James—suffered a cardiac arrest on Monday. He was in ICU, but has been discharged. Public details about the cause of the cardiac arrest are scarce—as in “non-existent.”

          Despite the lack of information about the cause of Bronny James’s cardiac arrest, that did not stop Elon Musk from posting a twixt that suggested that the vaccine for Covid-19 may have caused Bronny’s medical emergency. Musk’s twixt promoted a disproven conspiracy theory that the Covid-19 vaccine leads to increased incidence of myocarditis—an inflammation of a portion of the heart muscle (which is entirely different than cardiac arrest).

          But it gets worse. The Twixter community posted a “fact check” to Musk’s tweet that branded the twixt as misleading and noted the true facts—i.e., that a Covid infection leads to higher rates of myocarditis than does the vaccine. The man-child Musk apparently cannot stand criticism because the fact check mysteriously disappeared. See Forbes, Twitter Deletes Fact-Check Of Musk Connecting Bronny James’ Cardiac Arrest To Covid Vaccine. Musk’s twixt with the misinformation remains posted.

          Per Forbes,

Musk’s post was met with a since-removed fact-check that noted the risk of myocarditis, a rare condition involving the inflammation of a layer of the heart’s wall, is significantly higher after a Covid infection than after receiving a Covid-19 vaccine, citing articles from CBS News and the Yale School of Medicine.

The fact-check also noted that in adolescent boys, the risk of myocarditis following a Covid infection was approximately twice that of the risk that follows a second vaccine dose.

It’s not clear why the fact-check, which appeared through the platform’s “Community Notes” feature, was removed.

          Musk’s vaccine disinformation is dangerous. A study published on Monday in JAMA Internal Medicine shows that after the Covid vaccine became available in 2021, excess deaths among Republican voters in Florida and Ohio were 43% higher than in Democratic voters. See NPR, A political gap in excess COVID deaths widened after vaccines arrived.

          Covid remains a threat. Covid vaccine conspiracy theories and disinformation exacerbate that threat. As of this evening, Musk continues to post disinformation without the fact-check that is part of Twixter’s protocol.

Urgent need for help in Ohio.

          I received the following request from Sue Dean Dyke, a Swing Left leader in Ohio. Her group needs our help. I’m hoping you’ll respond to her request. Just click the link below.

We are an Indivisible group and Swing Left group in Northeast Ohio running a statewide phone bank to ensure Ohioans are aware of the election and have the information they need to vote.

I was wondering if you could promote our phone bank to your members. We are using a predictive dialer and trying to call as many Ohioans as possible to make sure they know to vote - this is not a persuasion phone bank.  We are still finding people unaware or confused about the election. The disinformation campaign is seeping into households all over the state.

We have a phenomenal script and are having some really effective conversations.  We hold the phone banks via zoom 3 times a week and provide solid training and support to volunteers.

Here is the link if you don't mind sharing: Ohio Progressive Action Leaders / Mobilize US. 

Concluding Thoughts.

          As the justice system moves towards two additional indictments against Trump, the “counter-programming” by Republicans to distract attention will increase to never-before-seen levels. Trump’s criminality is unprecedented, as are the indictments. We should expect fake thunder and lightning from the GOP to distract us. Ignore it. More importantly, don’t fall for it. I still receive emails from readers worried about the “blockbuster” revelations last week regarding Hunter Biden’s laptop. There were no blockbuster revelations in last week’s hearings, but Fox News and Republicans characterized old news as new news—a trick that fooled some readers of this newsletter. Let’s not fall for such deceit.

          Finally, we should recognize that the uptick in baseless attacks on Joe Biden and his son is a sure sign of desperation by Republicans. They know the indictments will weaken Trump among Independents, Democrats, and a smattering of Republicans—enough to matter to Trump’s election prospects. The louder they bellow, the more frightened they are. The calmer we are, the more effective we will be in defeating Republicans across the map in 2024.

          Talk to you tomorrow!