Hunkering down for the long term.

October 6, 2025

Before discussing the news, I would like to acknowledge the growing number of readers who say that the current political strife is causing them to look away from the news, and even from this newsletter. That’s an understandable reaction. Indeed, it is the reaction that Trump’s “flood the zone” strategy seeks to provoke—a fact that does nothing to diminish the anxiety and stress that people feel.

Taking care of yourself, your family, and your friends is paramount. We aren’t going to get through this challenging time if the psychological toll drives people away from the battle to preserve democracy. So, if your self-preservation instinct is pressing you to step back from the daily details of the fight, heed your inner guide! But do not quit. Do not surrender. Do not lose hope.

It is entirely reasonable to create some distance between the daily news while continuing to participate in pro-democracy activities. Indeed, doing so may help you to gain perspective and re-engage. So, you don’t need to be up-to-date on the most recent Trump lawlessness to join family and friends at a No Kings Day rally on October 18.

The fact of your participation is immensely more important than your ability to win a debate with a MAGA extremist over the nuances of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or the Impoundment Control Act of 1974.

Realistically, there are only two paths out of our current situation, and we must take both.

The first is a national uprising of the American people that forces Trump’s enablers—big businesses, billionaires, cowardly politicians—to recognize that they have more to lose by working against the interests of the people than they do by falling out of favor with Trump. ABC and Disney learned that lesson in 72 hours two weeks ago. We must replicate that experience on a national level. The upcoming No Kings Day rallies are a step along this path.

The second path is to vote in overwhelming numbers in 2026, generating margins of victory that are not vulnerable to judicial attack.

You can be an active participant in both of those strategies while maintaining a respectful distance from the daily cage matches that pass for news in the modern era. Show up at protests, knock on doors, make calls, send texts, send postcards, donate, call, and write to businesses and politicians.

The worst possible outcome is for people to disengage. Protect yourself as necessary, but please do not quit. Your country needs you. Future generations are counting on you. We are in this together, and together there is nothing we cannot do.

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Hunkering down for the long term

As we head into the first full week of the partial government shutdown, it appears that we should prepare ourselves for a long-term fight. That’s a good sign because it shows that Senate Democrats are standing strong and holding their ground. It could be otherwise—as it was last March when Democrats gave up without a fight.

Indeed, the continuing resolution passed in March (a) increased defense spending by $13 billion, (b) decreased domestic spending by $6 billion, (c) increased executive discretion over congressional appropriations, and (d) prohibited any member of Congress from seeking an end to Trump’s declaration of a national state of emergency over immigration. See Economic Policy Institute, (3/15/25), Congress passes Continuing Resolution to fund federal government, cut domestic federal spending.

The passage of the continuing resolution in March provides a relevant lesson for the current shutdown fight:

Giving Trump what he wants does not mean that he will treat you fairly in the future. Instead, he will view your accommodation as a sign of weakness, which will encourage him to abuse you even more.

All of the arguments being advanced by the handful of Democratic Senators for ending the shutdown ignore everything that has preceded the shutdown.

• Avoid layoffs? Trump has already fired or forced out 200,000 federal employees. Hundreds of thousands of people in private industry who relied on government research grants or contracts were also affected.

• Protect healthcare? Trump and the GOP have changed eligibility such that 12 million people will lose healthcare, and premiums will skyrocket for another 20 million Americans.

• Prevent food insecurity? Trump and the GOP have tightened eligibility for SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans.

I could go on, but you get the point. Trump and the GOP inflicted huge pain on the American people without the cover of a shutdown. The fact that they are threatening more of the same because of the shutdown is nonsensical. They are already in the process of doing their worst, and surrendering on the shutdown will provide zero incentive for them to improve their behavior in the future.

Sadly, when Democrats like Senator Catherine Cortez Masto break ranks, they make it more difficult for other Democratic Senators to hold firm. Senator Cortez Masto justifies her vote to capitulate by ending the shutdown with anodyne statements like, “I cannot support a costly shutdown that would hurt Nevada families and hand even more power to this reckless administration.”

Senator Cortez Masto’s statement suggests that other Senators do not care about citizens of their states—a claim that has infuriated her supporters and colleagues alike. Worse, she suggests that by caving to Trump to reopen the government, she will somehow succeed in restraining Trump’s worst impulses. Has she been paying attention to the behavior that led up to the shutdown?

I have heard from readers that many are expressing their feelings to Senator Cortez Masto. If you would like to share your thoughts with Senator Cortez Masto, there is still time for her to do the right thing—to hold out for a commitment by Trump that he will honor congressional appropriations and a rollback of the cuts to ACA healthcare subsidies. See Home - Senator Catherine Cortez Masto.

The shutdown fight will likely get uglier, but Democrats have the high ground. Speaker Johnson has allowed the House to abandon Washington during the shutdown so as to prevent a vote on the Epstein Transparency Act. That act of cowardice effectively makes Johnson and all Republicans complicit in the ongoing concealment of the Epstein files.

Most Americans understand why Democrats are making a stand against Trump over the shutdown. They have seen his overreach, they have experienced the cuts, and they have cringed at Trump’s increasingly erratic, unhinged behavior. They support curtailing his power and reclaiming some of the cuts made in the Big Ugly Bill to pay for tax cuts to billionaires.

We are on the right path. We should hunker down for the long term.

Oregon and Illinois push back on ICE, Border Patrol, and the federalization of the National Guard.

The big news over the weekend continues to be the ruling by a Trump-appointed federal judge, who issued a temporary order blocking the deployment of federal troops to the city of Portland. See Oregon v. Trump | Order Granting Temporary Restraining Order.

In a detailed opinion that laid bare the bad faith of the Trump administration’s rationale for the deployment, Judge Karin J. Immergut wrote

This historical tradition boils down to a simple proposition: this is a nation of Constitutional law, not martial law. Defendants have made a range of arguments that, if accepted, risk blurring the line between civil and military federal power—to the detriment of this nation.

Judge Immergut followed the ruling in Newsom v. Trump in which the Ninth Circuit held that a judge must afford “a great level of deference to the President’s determination that a predicate condition [for deploying troops] exists.”

After reviewing the facts, Judge Immergut found that the rationale offered by the Trump administration was pretextual and the “great level of deference” required by the Ninth Circuit did not force her to accept pleadings that were “untethered from the facts.”

Judge Immergut wrote,

[T]he President is certainly entitled “a great level of deference,” . . . in his determination that he “is unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States.” But “a great level of deference” is not equivalent to ignoring the facts on the ground. . . .

Here, this Court concludes that the President did not have a “colorable basis” to . . . to federalize the National Guard because the situation on the ground belied an inability of federal law enforcement officers to execute federal law. The President’s determination was simply untethered to the facts.

Judge Immergut’s ruling is significant. Trump does not appear to be capable of distinguishing reality from a five-year-old video played on a loop by Fox News. Although the Ninth Circuit reversed the stay issued in California, the record in Oregon is far stronger for upholding the stay. The administration’s argument in support of the Oregon deployment relied heavily on posts by Trump and administration officials on Truth Social.

There is a good chance that the Ninth Circuit will uphold Judge Immergut’s temporary restraining order and/or preliminary injunction. What the Supreme Court might do is another question altogether. But sooner or later, the Supreme Court will rule against Trump, just for appearances’ sake.

We should take confidence from the fact that much of the federal judiciary, including Trump appointees, has remained true to the Constitution. The federal district court and appellate courts are providing a rear-guard action, giving Americans time to reverse the corruption and complicity of Congress in the dismantling of the rule of law.

The situation in Chicago is more dire. Federal agents from ICE and CBP appear to be engaging in organized gang violence against innocent Americans exercising their free speech rights. See AP, Using helicopters and chemical agents, immigration agents become increasingly aggressive in Chicago.

Governor Pritzker has referred to the atmosphere created by ICE and CBP as a “war zone.” See HuffPo, Pritzker Says Trump Admin Is Making Chicago A ‘War Zone,’ As ICE Raids Increase.

The tactics and behavior of federal agents are reckless and dangerous. Unrestrained use of force and chemical weapons by federal agents virtually guarantees that someone will be seriously hurt, which will result in larger demonstrations, which will result in a greater show of force by Trump.

That may be the outcome that Trump wants. If so, he isn’t thinking ahead. See, e.g., Jimmy Kimmel. The American people can and will rise up peacefully to stop government overreach. The brutality being practiced by ICE and CBP in Chicago precedes the No Kings Day rallies on October 18, which promise to be the largest single-day political protests in American history.

Yes, the increasing aggressiveness by ICE and CBP is worrisome and outrageous. But the increasing engagement and protests across the nation are encouraging and inspiring. We must hunker down for the long term. We will outlast the several hundred violent ICE agents and bring them to justice in courts of law. It is just a matter of time.

Reader meetings in DC and Boston.

I am working to finalize locations for reader meetings in DC (10/14) and Boston (10/16) and will post sign-up sheets on Tuesday.

On Saturday, October 18, Jill and I will attend the No Kings Day rally in Concord, Massachusetts, 11 am to 1 pm. I will speak at the rally and will stay afterward to greet readers. You can sign up on Mobilize US to attend the rally in Concord on October 18. Sign up here: No Kings Day Rally in Concord, MA

Opportunity for Reader Engagement

I will be moderating a special livestream conversation with CA-49 Congressman Mike Levin and Latino Victory President & CEO Katharine Pichardo on Monday, October 6th at 4:00 PM ET / 1:00 PM PT.

We will discuss California’s Proposition 50 special election — a historic fight that could reshape Congress by redrawing the state’s maps to counter Trump’s mid-decade gerrymander in Texas.

Available on the Substack App or your desktop. Open the App or visit my Substack homepage to join the livestream.

Request for a volunteer to lead an online No Kings Day rally for people who cannot attend a rally in person.

A reader with a disability inquired whether there is an online No Kings Day rally to accommodate people who are unable to attend a rally in person. I considered organizing such an event and then realized that I don’t have the bandwidth. But if someone else wants to organize an online rally on No Kings Day, I will gladly promote. Thanks!

Concluding Thoughts

This will be a busy week for Jill and me. We will be traveling to DC to visit one of our granddaughters. We will also be tending to other family matters this week. It is possible that the newsletters will be briefer than usual. I appreciate your understanding.

I continue to believe that we have the momentum and high ground in the political conflicts roiling the nation. Republicans can pass a budget anytime they want—with or without Democratic votes. They can simply abolish the filibuster with 51 votes—but they are afraid to do so because they know they will be in the minority for most of the next century (if they survive Trump’s presidency).

Moreover, the fact that the House remains in recess during a shutdown is a sign of extreme desperation over the Epstein files.

Trump’s tariffs are causing dissatisfaction with the economy, and Trump’s increasingly bizarre behavior is seeping into the blogosphere, including many of Trump’s favorite news shows and podcasts.

And the polls continue to confirm that our dissatisfaction and dismay are widely shared among the American people.

So, yes, this will be a tough week. But behind closed doors in D.C., it is a lot tougher for the administration, as it watches its approval ratings plummet and federal judges foil its performative deployment of National Guard troops.

We are winning. Cutting through the fog of disinformation requires focus and discipline. Most importantly, your nation is calling you to join the resistance!

Stay strong! Talk to you tomorrow!

Protest Photos

Below, from reader Dana E:

I live in Birmingham, AL and wanted to share pictures from our visibility brigade event yesterday, 10/4.

Below, from Franconia, NH, “Here are our North Country Resilience displays: “Join No Kings Oct 18” and “Honk 4 Healthcare.”

Below: Woodstock, VA: “Over 70 of us on our 31st consecutive Saturday. Still going strong.”

Below, Superior, Colorado, in front of the Tesla dealership, 10/4/25. “My sweetheart Jean’s 25th Tesla Takedown, my 18th.”

Below, Oakland, CA: “Here’s our weekly Dump Trump demonstration in Oakland, CA. The highlights for me yesterday was a tween girl waving excitedly and someone else taking video and waving, which I hope she’ll put on social to show what’s happening in her neighborhood.”

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