Hoping for clear skies!

April 8, 2024

President Biden visited Maryland on Friday afternoon and spoke about the tragedy, recovery, and future promise of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore Harbor. He began by acknowledging that six of those killed in the tragedy were immigrants working to repair the road surface on the bridge:

The damage is devastating, and our hearts are still breaking. Eight construction workers went into the water when the bridge fell. Six lost their lives. Most were immigrants, but all were Marylanders — hard-working, strong, and selfless.

See White House.gov, Remarks by President Biden on Rebuilding the Francis Scott Key Bridge and Reopening the Port of Baltimore.

President Biden also spoke about the historical significance of the bridge and its promise for the future:

Let me close with this. This port is over 300 years old. . . . This port is older than our Republic. And it’s been through tough, tough times before.

During the war of 1812, a young Marylander named Francis Scott Key, for whom the bridge is named after, sat in a boat in this very harbor, and he watched — he watched the British troops launch attack after attack on American forces.

But as the dawn broke, we saw the American flag still flying, Baltimore was still standing, and our nation, as he wrote in the “Star-Spangled Banner,” had made it through a perilous fight.

Folks, this is going to take time, but Governor Moore [and] others are going to rebuild this bridge as rapidly as possible. And, folks, we’re determined to come back even stronger.

As President Biden was delivering sober, hopeful remarks after a tragedy, Trump was making wild allegations on a conservative talk radio show—claiming that President Biden was high on cocaine during the State of the Union address.

No major media outlet covered Trump's unhinged comments, but the “news” segment of Saturday Night Live did cover Trump's accusations—noting that Trump frequently accuses others of engaging in the conduct that he engages in himself. See YouTube, Weekend Update: Trump Claims Biden Is on Cocaine, Earthquake Rattles Northeast - SNL. (Reference to Trump accusation begins at 1:00 minute mark.)

This is no laughing matter. As Dan Pfeiffer notes,

I’m guessing that . . . most of you are learning this information for the first time. And it's not because you aren’t avid consumers of news. It’s because the traditional political media decided to ignore this outlandish accusation from a clearly deranged and dishonest man.

See Dan Pfeiffer on Substack, Why is the Press Making Trump Seem More Normal? (messageboxnews.com). Pfeifer continued his critique, noting that the major media outlets find a few coherent passages scattered in Trump's most recent unhinged campaign speech and use those snippets to make Trump seem normal:

He does a rally or interview filled with insane, incoherent ramblings and then the [news media] clips the most coherent 30-45 seconds to air as part of the package.

The good news is that Trump can’t hide forever at Mar-a-Lago. Several reasons are forcing Trump to come out of hiding and address issues of substance or legal jeopardy. Those reasons include:

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President Biden has strong fundraising and spending advantages over Trump. Biden continued to outraise Trump in March ($90 million to $65 million at the campaign level), but Biden-supporting Super PACs have begun to spend hundreds of millions in media buys through November. As one observer noted, Biden is making such aggressive media purchases through the fall that Trump will be blocked out of some markets. See Alex Thompson’s comment on Twitter, with embedded chart.

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Events relating to reproductive liberty are overtaking Trump's ability to remain silent. The recent decision by the Florida Supreme Court that effectively allows a six-week abortion ban to go into effect is putting pressure on Republicans across the nation to support such a ban. Trump doesn’t want to have to campaign defending a six-week ban, so he is promising an announcement “this week” on his position regarding abortion bans. Whatever he says, he will anger substantial portions of the Republican base. See Politico, Trump promises a ‘deal’ on abortion that will please everyone. It likely doesn’t exist.

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Pressure for action in the House on funding for Ukraine is putting pressure on Trump to speak about Ukraine. Trump has been promising that he can “negotiate a settlement” in Russia’s war on Ukraine in 24 hours. He has been telling insiders that his proposed settlement is for Ukraine to relinquish its sovereignty over Crimea and Donbas. For those paying attention, that “settlement” would reward Putin for invading Ukraine without provocation—and will anger some parts of the Republican base. See Washington Post, Inside Donald Trump’s secret, long-shot plan to end the war in Ukraine. (Accessible to all.)

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Trump will be in court as a criminal defendant beginning Monday, April 15. Trump's criminal trial for election interference / hush money payments will begin on April 15 in New York. As a criminal defendant, Trump will be required to be in the courtroom during all proceedings, including jury selection. See N.Y. Crim. Proc. Law § 340.50. However, if Trump disrupts the proceedings, he can be removed after a warning from the judge. Id. at (3).

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Trump's $175 million bond is likely defective—and his lawyers may have lied to the appellate division in New York. The appellate division in New York reduced Trump's appeal bond to $175 million after he claimed it was a “practical impossibility” for him to secure a bond of $464 million (plus interest) to forestall the seizure of his assets during the appeal of the judgment issued by Judge Engoron. After the amount of the appeal bond was reduced, the billionaire whose company provided the bond told the press that he was willing to provide a bond for the full amount of the judgment—contradicting Trump's claim of “practical impossibility.” That lie may become moot, however, because it appears that the company issuing the bond is not qualified to issue appeal bonds in New York. See Pro Publica,  Trump’s Lawyers Didn’t Disclose Proposal to Put Up Full $464 Million Bond — ProPublica

There are more difficulties facing Trump that complicate his run for the presidency. Of course, President Biden is facing his own challenges, including criticisms from all sides on his support (or lack thereof) for Israel and/or Netanyahu being chief among them. On balance, President Biden is better positioned than Trump. The next few weeks will be particularly difficult for Trump—which should prompt Democrats to pick up the pace to take full advantage of a long period of distraction for Trump.

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How foreign immigrants support the US economy

During my meetings with readers across the nation, the issue of immigration is frequently raised as a concern. It was a topic of conversation in my meeting on Saturday with readers in San Antonio. (See photo below.) After I made my usual remarks about why foreign immigration is good for the US, a reader suggested that I include the facts in my newsletter. So, here they are:

According to recent reports by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, foreign immigrants have fueled the better-than-expected performance of the US economy over the last decade. See Forbes, How Immigrants Are Boosting U.S. Economic And Job Growth. As summarized in the Forbes article,

In 2023, “foreign-born” workers comprised nearly 19% of the U.S. labor force . . . This is an uptick from 15.3% in 2006.

Immigrants have contributed largely to consumer spending growth by about 0.2 percentage point last year, with a similar boost expected this year, along with an increase in gross domestic product—a measure of all the goods and services produced—by 0.1 percentage point per year since 2022 . . . .

Federal Reserve Bank chair Jerome Powell [said], [I] t's just reporting the facts to say that immigration and labor force participation both contributed to the very strong economic output growth that we had last year.”

Immigration is fueling business and job creation in the U.S. According to MIT research, immigrants are 80% more likely to start a business than native-born U.S. citizens. They are also responsible for 42% more job creation than native-born founders.

So, larger-than-expected foreign immigration has increased consumer spending, GDP, start-up ventures, and job creation. That’s all good.

And there is a downside to restricting foreign immigration:

The U.S. needs more workers to keep the economy humming. In the absence of foreign-born labor, the U.S. talent pool will continue to decline because of lower birth rates with an accompanying aging workforce of Baby Boomers looking to retire. 

Indeed, according to a US Census Bureau report, the US population would decrease (to 319 million) instead of growing (to 404 million) by 2060 if the US cut-off immigration. Under a “zero immigration” policy, the percentage of the population over 65 would increase from 15% in 2024 to 26% in 2060—not a good trend. In its starkest terms, immigration is necessary to guarantee a robust, growing labor force to drive the largest economy in the world.

But there’s more. Over the last decade, foreign immigration has saved nine US states from an absolute decline in population. The NYTimes reported on the findings of the 2020 Census in an article entitled, Why Your State Is Growing or Stalling or Shrinking.

Even with foreign immigration, four states lost population overall, including West Virginia and Illinois. Moreover, foreign immigration saved nine additional states from a shrinking population base—including Mississippi, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

The debate about population growth is complicated. But in the short term, unplanned depopulation is devastating to economies and communities. To see the effects of a shrinking population and dwindling labor force, we need only look at many communities across America where young families are moving out, retirees are aging in place, and restrictive immigration policies discourage foreign immigrants from entering the workforce.

Conversely, states on the “front line” of foreign immigration into the US have booming economies—including California, Texas, Arizona, and Florida.

This interactive map will allow you to compare the economic impact of immigration on the respective states. As a point of comparison, California is the fifth largest economy in the world. 26% of its population consists of foreign immigrants, who contribute $137 billion in annual taxes, control $351 billion in spending power, and include 780,000 entrepreneurs. West Virginia’s population is 1.6% foreign immigrants who contribute $324 million in taxes and control $880 million in spending power. There are no recorded immigrant entrepreneurs in West Virginia.

Check out your own state on the interactive map.

Is our immigration system broken? Absolutely! But let’s not conflate the broken immigration system with the fact that America is strong (in part) because of immigration and will remain strong (in part) because of immigration. Foreign immigrants make America a better, more productive, and more innovative nation. Let’s not lose sight of that truth in the debate over how we allow foreign immigrants to enter the US.

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Concluding Thoughts

My wife and I will be in Florence, Texas on Monday, hoping to observe the total eclipse of the sun. The weather forecast is against us, but we will be waiting with solar glasses and camera equipment at the ready. As the great hockey player Wayne Gretzky said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”  That universal truth applies to all things in life, including politics, personal growth, and moments when our country calls on us to do great things.

Wishing clear skies to everyone!