Have faith in democracy!

November 8, 2022

          As we wait for election results, I again want to return to the need for perspective—this time as it relates to what the GOP will allegedly do if it gains control of Congress. For clarity, I believe the issue of control of Congress is still up for grabs. That said, it is difficult to ignore the spate of articles about all the horrible things the GOP plans to do if they win. While we should take those articles seriously, we shouldn’t accept them as literal descriptions of what will happen. While many breathless articles predict doom if Republicans take control of Congress, Ronald Brownstein gives a measured description in The Atlantic, How a GOP Congress Could Roll Back Freedoms Nationwide. Let’s consider how realistic those predictions are.

          Recall that the last time Republicans controlled Congress and the presidency, the only major legislation they passed was a tax cut. After that, they did little else besides lurch from shutdown crisis to shutdown crisis. The GOP-controlled Congress did “roll back” many Obama-era rules enacted by agencies, but those “roll-backs” aren’t new legislation—they are the congressional equivalent of a “veto” over the administrative rulemaking process.

          The list of Trump’s first-year accomplishments is here: These are the bills Trump signed into law in his first year as President | CNN Politics. Note that there are only three “new” pieces of legislation in the first year—one relating to elder abuse, one relating to sanctions on Russia (enacted despite Trump’s objections), and one relating to whistle-blower protections in the Veterans Administration. In other words, it’s easy to be “against” everything but difficult to pass new legislation.

          Republicans may be more effective and vengeful if they gain control in 2022—but they face new obstacles this time. Biden is president and wields the veto, requiring sixty-seven votes to override. And then there is the filibuster in the Senate. It would be a blessing if Republicans abolished the filibuster, but they will likely not do so, and they won’t have sixty votes to pass legislation subject to the filibuster. In short, Republicans face two major structural obstacles to passing legislation in the absence of Democratic support.

          Which leaves blackmail as the only point of leverage for Republicans. They will threaten to destroy the full faith and credit of the United States by refusing to raise the debt limit to cut Social Security and Medicare. See Republicans Threaten Debt Limit Default to Force Cuts to Economic Security Programs. Refusing to raise the debt limit would roil world financial markets and upset the overlords who fund the GOP dark money PACS. So, there is a governor on the destructive impulses of the GOP—and it is dirty money.

          But there is also a governor on the GOP’s legislative ambitions. What Brownstein (and others) consistently fail to include in their prophecies of doom is that most Americans oppose the Republican legislative agenda. How popular is limiting Social Security and cutting Medicare? What about criminalizing abortion on a national level? Outlawing same-sex marriage? Rolling back environmental protections? Mandating parental control of school curricula on a national basis? Prohibiting mail ballots? Allowing claims of religious freedom to override every other liberty guaranteed in the Bill of Rights?

          In other words, it is easy for Republicans to thump their chests and describe the reactionary measures they will enact. But when they attempt to do so, they will hear from their constituents, a.k.a., voters. Republicans ignore voters at their peril. Doing so may be feasible over the short term, but it is a losing strategy over the long-term.

          To be clear, I am not saying that Republicans will not inflict pain, create chaos, and threaten the rule of law. But we are not powerless; indeed, we are the majority. Over time, democracy will self-correct as voters recognize that a reactionary minority seeks to deny Americans the full promise of the Constitution.

          So, we should not await the election results with fear but with confidence and a clear-eyed recognition of the challenges we face—and certainty about the ultimate victory we will achieve. Republicans are fighting dirty because they know they are a minority party on a burning platform. Democrats have a vision that includes the majority of Americans in a future based on liberty, tolerance, peace, prosperity, and security.

Twitter becomes an extension of the GOP.

          It’s official! Twitter has become an arm of the Republican Party. Twitter’s owner has told his 112 million followers to vote for Republicans in the midterms. See Bloomberg, Elon Musk Tells Twitter Followers to Vote for a Republican Congress.

          It is almost impossible to describe the insanity and destructiveness of Musk’s first two weeks of ownership of Twitter. But Charlie Sykes does a very good job in his essay in Bulwark, Elon Musk, Savant Idiot? - by Charlie Sykes - Morning Shots. (For readers offended by salty language, consider this fair warning!). The most lunatic action by Musk has been his threat to support a boycott of advertisers who have paused their ad purchases on Twitter as they wait to see how vile the platform will become. See Insider, Elon Musk is threatening to ‘thermonuclear name and shame’ advertisers that press pause on Twitter. It’s a dumb thing to do to your biggest customers.

          I won’t get into all of the details, but Musk is also antagonizing Twitter users who have huge followings—and who provide Twitter its legitimacy as a source of information. Musk has begun banning or blocking users who criticize Musk. (So much for free speech!) Celebrities are quitting, and many prominent users are reporting significant decreases in their followers—which suggests that millions of non-celebrity users are quitting, as well. And Musk seems to have lost control over hate speech on the platform—a predictable consequence of firing a significant portion of its “content moderation” staff.

          And at the same time that Twitter is seeing a dramatic rise in hate speech, it seems to be selectively targeting accounts of users engaged in legitimate political discourse. On the eve of the election, Twitter suspended the account of the Executive Director of the League of Women Voters of California (@sdoute) and flagged a retweet by Joyce Vance as containing “sensitive material” because another user mentioned Shirer’s “Rise and Fall of the Third Reich,” Hitler, and MAGA in a tweet. And yet, Musk himself has suffered no sanction for sharing a baseless, homophobic, and defamatory conspiracy theory about the savage attack on Paul Pelosi.

          Why does this matter to democracy? Because, for all of its good, Twitter has been weaponized by right-wing groups to spread messages of hate and division. And it looks like Putin is again using US social media to interfere in the 2022 midterms. See Washington Post, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, Putin ally, boasts he ‘interfered’ in U.S. elections. As the Post notes,

Major social media platforms also have become far more vigilant about policing suspicious content, though Elon Musk’s recent large-scale staffing cuts at Twitter have raised questions about whether the company could properly monitor content ahead of Tuesday’s vote.

          To make matters worse, Musk is considering reinstating Trump—which might be a fatal blow to the social media platform. Whatever happens, it is clear that Musk has made a monumental blunder because of his inability to distinguish between his status as a pugnacious user of Twitter and an owner who needs to service $44 billion in debt for a company whose value is plummeting every day.

          But . . . at 400 million users, Twitter remains one of the most influential sources of information (and disinformation) for Americans, especially Americans in the 25-34 age group. Small-scale desertions by influential users will not put a dent in the 400 million user base—but it will have a disproportionate effect on the availability of truthful and accurate counter-messaging that will be vital in the coming years. If you follow responsible users on Twitter, continue to support them as best you can. And if you are on Twitter, please continue to fight the good fight as long as you can do so in good conscience!

Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington will seek to disqualify Trump from presidential run in 2024.

          A public advocacy group has told Trump that they will seek to disqualify him under the 14th Amendment if he runs for president in 2024. See Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), Letter to Trump date 11/3/2022. The letters states, in part,

Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment provides that no individual who engages in insurrection or rebellion against the Constitution—after having previously taken an oath to support it—shall hold any federal or state office.

CREW believes you are barred from holding office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment because you engaged in insurrection against the Constitution you swore to defend.

          Regardless of whether the CREW effort to bar Trump’s run for office is successful, its effort is worthwhile and worthy of support. A suit will keep Trump’s insurrectionist activities at the forefront of the conversation—and embolden challengers to Trump, who will in turn attack and infantilize his would-be challengers. Trump seems ready to pull the pin on that political hand grenade on November 15, 2022. See The Hill, Trump teases ‘very big announcement’ on Nov. 15. And, who knows? Perhaps the CREW suit will be successful—which would have stunning implications for two-thirds of Republicans in Congress!

Concluding Thoughts.

          Talk to friends, neighbors, and strangers on Tuesday to ensure they have voted! Every vote counts!

          A word of caution about the watching (and reacting to) reporting on returns on Tuesday. I have a vivid recollection of Election Day 2018. On Tuesday evening, I received dozens of emails from readers who were inconsolable over the (apparent) defeat of Democrats in the House. But as the days passed and all of the votes were counted, Democrats took control of the House! As in 2018, many races will be decided by a few thousand votes, a margin that can be flipped by absentee and mail ballots.

          So, if possible, try to reserve judgment and wait for the final results—which may be a week in coming. But whatever happens, we should await the election results with confidence and a clear-eyed recognition of the challenges we face—and certainty about the ultimate victory we will achieve.

          Talk to you tomorrow!