Five months is an eternity in politics!

June 16, 2022

[Audio version here]

          The January 6th Committee once again proved it has done its homework and has the goods on the coup plotters and liars attempting to evade responsibility for their unlawful actions on January 6th. In a dramatic development on Wednesday, the Committee released surveillance video taken on January 5th that showed GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk giving a tour of the Capitol complex to a large group of “constituents.” One of those “constituents” took video and photos of tunnels and stairwells in the Capitol. The same “constituent” was in the crowd of rioters on January 6th as they advanced on the Capitol. Another insurrectionist described  the “constituent” as “our fearless leader.” See NYTimes, Jan. 6 Panel Says Capitol Marcher Toured With G.O.P. Congressman.

          The video footage proves that Loudermilk, the House Republican caucus, and (sadly) the Capitol Police have misled the American public about the existence of “reconnaissance tours” led by GOP representatives on January 5th. The revelation reinforces the fact that the Committee is doing an outstanding job representing the interests of the American people and the Constitution. But it also highlights the dereliction of the DOJ, FBI, and Capitol Police. Each agency has been aware of the allegations for over a year but has failed to investigate or prosecute.

          The video reveals the audacious mendacity of the coup plotters and conspirators. After Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill reported that she saw reconnaissance tours led by Republicans on January 5th, Republicans issued the following string of denials, evasions, “corrections,” and lies. (It is helpful to know, as context, that the Capitol complex was closed to tours by members on January 5th because of Covid restrictions.)

• Republicans on the House Administration Committee (which includes Loudermilk) wrote a letter stating, “[t]here were no tours, no large groups, no one with MAGA hats on.”

• Rep. Loudermilk filed an ethics complaint against Rep. Mikie Sherrill for reporting on the existence of tours led by GOP representative on January 5th.

• Loudermilk denied that he led any tour of the Capitol complex on January 5th.

• Loudermilk then admitted he gave a tour of the Capitol complex “to a family with young children,” but claims that “to my knowledge” no one on the tour has been charged with crimes committed on January 6th “or entered the Capitol grounds.”

• Loudermilk also claimed that although some of his constituents attended the rally on the Ellipse before the attack on the Capitol on January 6th, “they turned away when they saw what was happening.”

          There are more lies, but you get the drift. See Business Insider, All the times GOP Rep. Loudermilk shifted his story about the Capitol tour he led a day before Jan. 6 attack. And remember this when evaluating Loudermilk’s explanations of why the tour was innocent: The Capitol complex was on Covid lockdown when Loudermilk gave the tour. That alone is ground for suspicion.

          The statement released by the Capitol Police was egregious and demonstrates ineptitude. In a letter to Loudermilk, the Capitol Police say that after reviewing the video of Loudermilk’s tour, they did not view “any of the activities we observed as suspicious.” The video is here; see if you see “anything suspicious” on the day before insurrectionists breached the Capitol.

          Here’s the point: Loudermilk could have cleared up the confusion and suspicion by telling the truth in the days following the insurrection. Instead, it took more than a year-and-a-half and a surveillance video release for him to admit the truth begrudgingly. By attempting to conceal the truth of January 6th, Republicans continue the slow-rolling coup that Trump started on November 7, 2020.

GOP primaries this week.

          The national political press took a much darker view of the results of Tuesday’s GOP primaries than I did in yesterday’s newsletter. Two events garnered much attention in the political commentary I failed to mention last evening; both are significant and worrisome. But, as usual, the story is more complicated than headlines suggest.

          First, the GOP flipped a congressional district in South Texas, long a Democratic stronghold with a heavily Latino population. Many commentators see the loss as emblematic of growing discontent among Latino voters with the Democratic Party. While that may be true, the story is more complicated than it appears. The district that was flipped will disappear in November due to redistricting and will be absorbed into a much more Democratic-friendly district. Republicans poured millions into a disappearing district to win a PR victory. In that, they succeeded.

          The Latino Caucus in the House was furious at DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney for not committing more money to the race. See Politico, Latino Democrats vent their fury after foreboding special election loss in Texas. Maloney responded by saying,

Look, I think the Republicans spent millions of dollars to win a seat that’s going away. We’re going to win this seat when it matters. You never like to lose, and I understand why people were upset by that. I think Republicans burned a lot of money, and we’re going to end up with that seat.

          I am not arguing that Maloney was correct in deciding to invest money elsewhere. I am saying that headlines and stories that assert the loss in Texas means Democrats are losing the Latino vote may be overinterpreting the loss. Or not. But now you know there is more to the story than many outlets are reporting.

          Another ominous development was the refusal of a county commission to certify votes from Tuesday’s primaries in Otero County, New Mexico. Talking Points Memo, New Mexico GOP County Commission Refuses To Certify Primary Election Results. Why did the three GOP commissioners refuse to certify the vote? Because New Mexico uses Dominion voting machines and, as one commissioner explains, “In my heart, I know they cannot be trusted.”

          The refusal to certify votes may be part of the 2024 Big Steal strategy by Trump. Whether it will work remains to be seen. The New Mexico Secretary of State has obtained an order from the New Mexico Supreme Court directing the Otero County commissioners to certify the votes. One commissioner scoffed at the order, saying, “What are they going to do if we refuse? Put us in the pokey?” That commissioner apparently has a very limited understanding of what a court order means and how it can be enforced. To answer her question, “Yes, you can be put in the pokey for contempt of court.”

          We must wait for the final resolution of the situation in New Mexico, so don’t jump to conclusions. The more significant issue is that refusing to certify the vote in states won by a Democratic presidential nominee may become a standard part of the Republican playbook. Or not. Consider that the GOP commissioners have disenfranchised every one of the 5,353 voters of Otero County who voted on Tuesday. That’s bad. Very.

          How likely is it that courts will permit the wholesale disenfranchisement of every voter in a county, district, or state? I don’t think that is a probable outcome, but let’s watch developments in New Mexico unfold before jumping to conclusions. This is a dynamic situation, so stay tuned. We may learn a lot from what happens in this small New Mexico county.

Podcast Interview with Tony the Democrat from Postcards to Voters.

          I interviewed Tony the Democrat from Postcards To Voters today on my podcast. The interview is here: Today’s Edition Podcast. Tony is a hero of the resistance who started a movement that has drawn tens of thousands of Americans into political activism. If you have been considering writing postcards, this podcast explains how it works and why you should join! Tony addresses the question of whether writing postcards is an effective way to increase voter turnout (Spoiler alert: Yes!)

          Postcards to Voters currently has a campaign to encourage voters in Florida to sign up for mail voting. This is a critically important endeavor that can use your help! To join the effort, text “JOIN” to 484-275-2229 or email Join@TonyTheDemocrat.org.

Concluding Thoughts.

          The Tuesday primary victories of election deniers and the Otero County commission's refusal to certify election results led to a spike in emails from readers worried that Democrats are headed for disaster in 2022. I think Democrats still have a chance to pull out victories in the Senate and House, but let’s accept readers' worst fears for the sake of argument. Let’s assume that doomsayers are correct, and the most probable outcome is that Democrats will lose the House and Senate in 2022. What do we do with the next five months before election day?

          Do we give up, stay home, and ensure a massive defeat?

          Or do we continue to fight and win as many contests up-and-down the ballot as possible?

          Obviously, the answer is to continue to fight. The action of the Otero County commission vividly demonstrates the importance of contesting every single election on the ballot. In one of the Otero County primaries, the winner received 13 votes, in total! The same can be true of school boards and city councils and election commissioners. No race is too small to be ignored. At the same time, statewide races for Governor, secretary of state, and attorney general can be won by Democrats even if the state’s congressional delegation is captured by Republicans (through gerrymandering).

          So, let all the bad news wash over you, take it in, and then get back to work. Even if every doomsayer is 100% correct about control of Congress, there is a great big world of democracy outside of D.C. waiting for committed citizens to tell it what “we the people” want from our government. If you don’t make your voice heard, someone else will fill the void with theirs. Don’t let that happen!

          And, finally, don’t underestimate the ability of the world to surprise us with unforeseen events. The January 6th Committee and the Supreme Court will weigh heavily on the 2022 election, and we haven’t heard the last from either institution! Five months is an eternity in politics. Don’t give up!

          Talk to you tomorrow!