Enthusiasm and momentum will win the day!
October 19, 2024
“The election is going to be close.” All objective evidence from reputable polls suggests that the statement is true. It is appropriate to remind ourselves of that fact as we head into the homestretch because it provides a bracing dose of reality to urge us to the superhuman effort demanded in this consequential election.
But, if you are like me, you are tired of being reminded that “the election is going to be close.” It feels too defensive and fails to capture the palpable enthusiasm and momentum evident on the ground. In fairness, “enthusiasm” and “momentum” are difficult to capture on a spreadsheet that tallies “ones” and “zeroes.” But dramatic increases in volunteers, donations, attendance at Democratic rallies, responses to phone banking and texting, and record-breaking lines for early voting all suggest that Democrats have the edge in enthusiasm and momentum.
In an election that will be close, it is impossible to overstate the importance of enthusiasm and momentum. That is why the MAGA disinformation machine has kicked into high gear to inject doubt and anxiety into the pro-democracy coalition that supports Kamala Harris and Democratic candidates nationwide. As noted in this Wall Street Journal article, four wealthy bettors appear to be trying to move the “betting markets” in Trump's favor with outsized bets that change the odds. See WSJ, A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market. (Behind a paywall.)
Don’t fall for the cynical tactics of white nationalist billionaires and dark money PACs. Trust your gut. Spread enthusiasm and momentum by being a leader among friends and acquaintances. Whenever I talk to reader groups and provide a pep talk, people come up to me and thank me for being positive. Everyone is nervous. They are looking for social cues and eagerly follow the lead of someone willing to say that we have reason to be optimistic.
Of course, false optimism is harmful and self-defeating. But we are in a moment where encouraging others to be enthusiastic and hopeful could affect the outcome in close elections across the nation by motivating turnout. We are active participants in the unfolding history of a great nation. We have the ability to shape history by encouraging others to exercise the right that is foundational to all others—the right to vote.
“The election will be close” should not be viewed as a cautionary warning or anxiety-producing truism but as a rallying cry that highlights our agency as citizens empowered to decide the outcome. Whatever the outcome, it will be decided by us. And in a close election, the odds favor the side with enthusiasm and momentum. Take heart from that fact and redouble your efforts in the final weeks of the campaign. We still have the ability to affect the outcome. Let’s do it!
Ignoring the pundit counternarrative
As we approach the election, a cottage industry is springing up among political consultants and pundits explaining why the race remains close or is tightening. The laziest and most superficial way to explain why the race remains close is to look at what the Harris-Walz campaign is doing and say, “They should be doing the opposite.” This technique is called the “counter-narrative.”
When Joe Biden ran on the theme of “threat to democracy,” he was criticized for not focusing on “kitchen table issues.” When Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee, she pivoted to “a new way forward for the middle class” (read: kitchen table issues). Now that the race is close with less than three weeks to go, pundits are saying that Kamala Harris should be focusing on the “threat to democracy” posed by Trump.
See how the “counter-narrative” works? It’s the opposite of whatever the campaign is doing. And it is a “win-win” strategy for the pundit / commentator. Let me explain.
If the pundit turns out to be “right” in the sense that Harris-Walz loses while failing to follow the counter-narrative advice, the pundit is hailed as a political genius who gets to ride on the coattails of that “prediction” for the next four years.
If the counter-narrative turns out to be “wrong” in the sense that Harris-Walz wins while failing to follow the counter-narrative, everyone is happy and no one faults the pundit for being wrong.
Here’s my point: The overriding incentive for pundits at this point in the campaign is to adopt the counter-narrative—i.e., explaining why Harris-Walz should be doing the opposite of their current strategy (regardless of what that strategy is).
So, ignore the onslaught of opinion pieces that second-guess Kamala Harris with the counter-narrative. Those opinions have more to do with the pundits’ desire to advance their careers by hedging their bets with the counter-narrative than an honest assessment of what Kamala Harris should—or should not—be doing.
Josh Marshall addresses one such instance of the “counter-narrative” in his editor’s blog today, although he doesn’t use that term. See Josh Marshall, Talking Points Memo, Into The Storm. Marshall addresses an article in The Atlantic by Ron Brownstein arguing that Democrats must do a better job of reminding voters about “what they might fear from a potential second White House term for Donald Trump.” As if Kamala Harris isn’t addressing that topic! See next article.
Brownstein relies on “Democratic political professionals” and “pollsters” to support his view that Kamala Harris should flip to the counter-narrative. I’ll take a hard pass on advice from both of those groups and trust Kamala Harris’s instincts, which have led to a remarkable resurgence of Democratic prospects in the last two and half months.
Kamala Harris campaigns in Michigan while Trump cancels appearances
Kamala Harris spoke to rallies in Oakland County and Lansing, Michigan. In her two speeches (at links in prior sentence), Harris did, indeed, focus on the threat Trump poses to democracy. See this video clip from Harris’s speech in Oakland County, where she addresses “what Americans might fear from a second White House term from Donald Trump.” See YouTube, Harris: Trump has promised to be a dictator.
As Kamala continues to hold large events in swing states, Trump has retreated to small events in front of hand-curated audiences to avoid overtaxing his collapsing mental state and stamina. A Trump campaign staffer cancelled an interview, telling the venue that Trump was “exhausted.” See The Independent, Trump bailed on interview because he’s ‘exhausted’ from campaign trail, says report.
Canceling interviews and appearances is Trump's best strategy after he compared January 6 insurrectionists to innocent Americans of Japanese descent who were held in internment camps during World War II. See Mediaite, Trump Compares January 6th Convicts to Japanese Americans at Internment Camps: ‘No One Has Ever Been Treated Like This!’
The billionaire backing Trump
The strength of the pro-democracy coalition supporting Kamala Harris is its widespread support among tens of millions of Americans. Trump's campaign is being kept on life support by a handful of billionaires. Elon Musk is financing Trump's campaign to the tune of $75 million.
On Friday, Trump told Fox he was on his way to visit Rupert Murdoch to ask him to keep Democratic ads and “negative guests” off of Fox’s programming through election day. See Bloomberg, Trump Says He’s Meeting Fox News' Murdoch, Will Ask to Stop Negative Ads. How is that not illegal? Indeed, how is it possible that Fox News is not treated as a field office of the Trump campaign?
Oh, and by the way, Trump told Fox & Friends that writers from Fox provided some of his jokes at the tasteless and tyranny-normalizing Al Smith Charity Dinner in New York. See HuffPost, Donald Trump Says Fox News People Wrote Some Of His Jokes For Al Smith Dinner.
And Elon Musk appears to be “in charge” of Trump's social media advertising in Michigan and Pennsylvania. That’s bad news, especially because Musk appears to be “microtargeting” Muslim American with antisemitic ads that blame Kamala Harris for the war in Gaza. At the same time, Musk is targeting Jewish voters with ads saying that Kamala Harris backs Palestinians in Gaza. See Michigan Advance, Musk-connected PAC behind mailers targeting Muslim and Jewish voters in Michigan.
The good news is that Musk appears to be incompetent at running a ground game in a political campaign. See Reuters, Exclusive: Pro-Trump group funded by Musk struggles with outreach targets, inflation of doorknocking figures. (“Despite the influx of cash, some of America PAC's outreach has been plagued by disarray, the people familiar with its efforts told Reuters.”)
Opportunities for Reader Engagement
Join Heather Cox Richardson and Red Wine & Blue on Monday, October 21 at 7:00 Eastern
It’s two weeks until the most important election of our lifetime and we’re all feeling the pressure. No one eases our anxieties and puts things into perspective like our friend, Heather Cox Richardson, so we are thrilled she’s coming back to spend some time with us! Join us to hear from Heather as she shares the historical perspective on this election, what to expect over the next few weeks, and what we can all do right now to defeat extremism and protect democracy in November. Sign up here: What's Going to Happen?! with Heather Cox Richardson.
Join Grandparents for Democracy and Senators Bob Casey and Sherrod Brown
Grandparents for Democracy Call - Monday, 10/21 at 8:30 pm EST/5:30 pm PST with Grandparents Cecile Richards, Senator Bob Casey and Senator Sherrod Brown, and Jim Messina. Sign up here: Meeting Registration - Zoom.
Concluding Thoughts
Elon Musk is advertising for canvassers to knock on the doors of GOP voters for $30 per hour. Musk’s ground operation is plagued by reports of inflated and non-existent door-knocking by contractors whose only motivation is the hourly wage.
Meanwhile, Democrats are flooding the streets with canvassers who are motivated by a desire to save democracy from a wannabe tyrant.
In a close election, enthusiasm and momentum will win the day.
Talk to you tomorrow!
Daily Dose of Perspective
I failed to attach the image of M78 to yesterday’s newsletter. As I wrote yesterday, “Below is an image of M78, located 1,350 light years from Earth. It is a reflection nebula that is home to thousands of objects, including “substellar” clumps that are proto-stars.”
Tonight is another cloudy night in LA, so we are one newsletter closer to me posting vacation photos. On a personal note, I did see some stars today. I fell off a ladder while putting up a swing for my granddaughters. The only significant injury was to my pride, but I am limping around to garner all the sympathy I can get.
Assuming the election will be close is the safe way to be right when the results are in. The polls aren't trustworthy, so how on Earth do "they" know? In this crazy Alice-in-Wonderland America, we can only go by feel and intuition. This is about the future, and that means our young voters and (drum roll) women. We either trust the endless unreliable polls or our gut. My gut tells me that the good people in this country will prevail. I refuse to listen to those other guys. 😊
I simply refuse to believe that my fellow citizens will turn our future over to a sniveling wannabe fascist dictator who is closing his campaign with an overt threat to sic our military on his political enemies, the so-called “enemy within.” The utter depravity of his threat could not be more potently illustrated than by his choice of Adam Schiff as an example of the “enemy within” deserving such punishment. Thanks Robert for reminding us that enthusiasm and hard work will win the day. At 83, I am so happy to be fit enough to be canvassing in my neighbor state of Pennsylvania for Kamala and Tim between now and November 5. Together we can relegate Trump and his despicable sycophants to the political oblivion they so richly deserve.