As I write this note late on the evening of November 5, the results of the presidential and congressional elections are not yet final. Kamala Harris still has a very narrow path to the presidency. The final outcome may not be known for several days, as in 2020. The Harris-Walz campaign released a statement at 11:40 pm Eastern saying they still have a path to victory.
I know from the Comment section and emails that many readers feel defeated and deflated. That it understandable. Many were hoping for a clear victory on Tuesday evening. An immediate victory has eluded our grasp, and our path is narrowing in the presidential race.
But we should not give up. Not now, not ever. Every successful effort to convert a vote in 2024 was a victory that we can build upon for the future—for our children and grandchildren.
If we win the presidency, it will be excruciatingly close. If we lose, it will be a painful and bewildering experience.
But we don’t know yet how it will turn out. I reprint below some of my guidance from three weeks ago about how to process election night.
The final outcome of the election will not be known on election night. Gone are the days when staying up until 1:00 a.m. on Election Night would reveal “the winner.” Unless it is clear on Tuesday night that Kamala Harris will win several “sunbelt” states, it will be several days before the network prediction desks will be confident in predicting the presidential race.
There will likely be a “red mirage” on Election Night. As in 2016, 2018, and 2020, the election night counts will make it appear that Republicans are doing better than the final votes will show. Why? Some states require that same-day, in-person votes be counted first, which will exclude early voting and mail ballots—which tend to favor Democrats. See, e.g., New York Magazine, We May See Another ‘Red Mirage’ on Election Night 2024. So, do not panic! And remember, most of Steve Kornacki’s schtick is telling us what we don’t know (yet), which is not very helpful.
On election night, Trump will use the “red mirage” phenomenon to claim that he won and that the vote count should stop. He did so in 2016 and 2020 and will do so again in 2024. Don’t overreact.
Don’t reduce the election to a binary outcome. The question of “who won” is not binary. A mistake we made in 2016 was seeing the election as a unitary and binary choice—everything depended on the presidential election. That feeling is understandable, but we now know that controlling one or both chambers of Congress has widespread implications for a successful Harris first term. And if Harris loses, controlling one or both chambers of Congress will be an important firewall against abuses of power by Trump. Moreover, control of statehouses, breaking up Republican trifectas at the state level, and amending state constitutions to include protections for reproductive rights are all important.
The election isn’t over on November 5. Many states allow periods after election day to “cure” deficient ballots. If you can, volunteer to help cure ballots. Curing efforts helped Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock win their Senate seats for Georgia.
Don’t assume “the end of democracy” if we don’t win every race. Many people resort to hyperbole to describe the effect on democracy if Trump wins or if Democrats don’t take control of Congress. The use of such language is understandable and reasonable as a way to raise alarm, but should not be taken literally. The only way that democracy will end is if we give up on it. I am not going to give up. And neither are you—no matter how anxious you feel in the moment.
Write a letter to your future self. In a moment of calm before election day, write a letter to yourself. Recognize and thank yourself for your contributions to the victories that we will win. Vow never to go back or quit—even if we win a trifecta. Recognize that your efforts are a gift to the next generation that will bear fruit you may not see—and accept that your reward for defending democracy is that you get to do it all over again next year. Vow to be gracious in victory or defeat and to be supportive of those around you. Promise to be a leader and an example for others. Most of all, maintain perspective. We are standing on the shoulders of Americans who brought us to this moment by overcoming challenges that were more daunting than those we face today. They abided; we must, as well.
Concluding Thoughts
It isn’t over. We still have a path to victory.
I promise you this: I am not giving up, no matter what happens. And neither are you—even if you feel like doing so. Taking some time off is understandable and reasonable, no matter the outcome. Many have worked themselves to exhaustion. Come back when you are ready.
I promise I will continue writing to you every day, no matter the outcome. When we experience challenges in our lives, sometimes the only thing we can do is put one foot in front of the other until we can look up and regain our bearings. I will be here, putting one foot in front of the other. Join me. We will get through this together.
Daily Dose of Perspective
Below is an image of the Eagle Nebula, which I re-processed on November 6, 2024, to distract my attention from the noise of factoids and speculations about tiny differences in votes. The Eagle Nebula is approximately 5,700 light years from Earth. When the light captured in the image below left the Eagle Nebula, the first Egyptian Pyramids would not be built for another 1,200. years.
We worked hard in Virginia and even though we're not a swing state, we delivered the win to Kamala. We reelected the wonderful Senator Tim Kaine. We held Abigail Spanberger's House seat blue by electing Eugene.Vindman.
I'm disgusted that Ted Cruz has been reelected and that Bernie Moreno is taking a seat in the Senate.
Thank you, Robert. I think I can get some sleep now. Thanks too for your profound leadership for the past many years. It has mattered greatly for all of us..