Don't give permission to others to demotivate or mislead you!

September 18, 2024

Remain steadfast, dear readers! I received a dozen(-ish) emails today expressing worry about a report from a respected polling organization claiming that “the presidential race is tightening.” I also received a similar number of emails touting reports from a respected polling firm showing VP Harris expanding her post-debate lead to a number that is “larger than the margin of error.”

Here’s the deal: It doesn’t matter which of the above polling narratives is true. Indeed, both could be correct or both could be wrong. Regardless of what the polls show—good or bad—you should not change anything that you plan to do in the next 50 days. We are stuck in a noisy, volatile information environment that is being actively manipulated by the MAGA disinformation machine and Russia. See Axios, Russia amplifies disinformation campaigns against Harris-Walz campaign, Microsoft warns.

Per Axios,

Russia is now throwing all of its disinformation resources behind operations designed to undermine the Harris-Walz campaign, according to a Microsoft report released Tuesday.

[And] the Justice Department exposed a $10 million scheme earlier this month in which employees of a Russian state media network infiltrated a U.S. company to spread Russian propaganda.

Let’s be clear: You are the target of the disinformation being peddled by the GOP and Russia. Their goal is to demotivate you. Do not give them permission to do so!

So, if you have mistakenly over-invested in the polls, knock it off! (And I mean that in the nicest way possible!) It is completely understandable and perfectly human to seek reassurance from polls. No one wants a repeat of the nasty surprise in 2016. But the bad guys have figured out our need for positive feedback and weaponized it against us. They are con men, and we are the mark.

Instead of looking to the media for reassurance, believe your own eyes and ears. You can see the surge in enthusiasm, you know that the number of volunteers at your grassroots organization has increased, and you have been surprised by people in your life who are planning to vote for the first time or will vote for Kamala Harris after voting for Trump in 2016 or 2020. That information is anecdotal, but it is not filtered or manipulated to mislead you.

Of course, we shouldn’t delude ourselves. We must recognize that remaining in touch with real news is important. The question is, how do we stay current without subjecting ourselves to manipulation?

I attended a Swing Left San Gabriel Valley meeting over the weekend where Jessica Craven and I spoke to the grassroots volunteers. One audience member asked which news sources we trust. Our combined answers included the following:

• Heather Cox Richardson | Substack

• Jessica Craven | Substack

• Simon Rosenberg | Substack

• Jay Kuo | Substack

• Lucian K. Truscott IV | Substack

• Joyce Vance | Substack

• Judd Legum | Substack

• Lawrence O’Donnell | MSNBC

• Josh Marshall | Talking Points Memo

• The Guardian (for general news but especially commentary by Rebecca Solnit)

Of course, I read dozens of other sources to prepare this newsletter, but the above are my “go to” sources for fair reporting on the news. On legal matters, I rely on Laurence Tribe, Mark Joseph Stern, Ian Millhiser, and Dahlia Lithwick. I also rely on Aaron Rupar on Twitter (@atrupar) and his Substack, Public Notice, to provide real-time, unvarnished tracking of statements by Trump, which are often sane-washed by major media.

I use the above sources to give me an objective view of the news—which I then employ as a lens when I read other sources. If your favorite source is not listed above, please do not take offense! If you have identified a source you trust, reward them with your support.

It is going to be seven long weeks until Election Day. Don’t allow yourself to be manipulated by the news. Instead, make the news by motivating new and existing voters to show up on Election Day. The antidote to anxiety is action. And there is plenty to do!

---

Kamala Harris’s measured interview with National Association of Black Journalists

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump sat for interviews on Tuesday. The interviews were, as expected, windows into competing versions of America under the respective candidates. Kamala Harris’s responses were measured, thoughtful, and linear. The media is still trying to decipher what Trump said or meant on several topics.

But . . . Kamala Harris received relatively little notice in the media for her interview, despite the drumbeat of demands that she sit for more interviews. The New York Times complained that her answers “often echoed her stump speech”—as if consistency and discipline in messaging is a bad thing. The Times instead gave top billing (in two articles) to Trump’s unpredictable and baseless promises in his appearance in Flint Michigan. Michael Gold of the NYTimes wrote,

[Trump] made grand promises to restore auto-making jobs to the state, the heart of the American auto industry, as he gave long-winded, often meandering responses to only a few questions.

“Meandering” is an understatement. “Incomprehensible” and “bonkers” are more descriptive.

The complete video of Kamala Harris’s interview is here: PBS Newshour, Harris participates in National Association of Black Journalists event in Philadelphia. If you don’t have time to watch the entire 45-minute interview, I recommend watching two answers to get a flavor of how well the VP conducted hereself.

In this segment, she responds to the efforts to incite racial hatred toward Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. See Springfield: It's a crying shame . . . This answer is notable for many reasons, including the fact that Kamala Harris interrupted the interviewer, stopped herself, apologized, and invited the interviewer to finish her question.

In a second segment worth watching, she answers a more challenging question (in tone and substance) about the war in Gaza and the path to peace: Question on Gaza War.

Trump, on the other hand, gave a series of non-sensical answers in his town hall in Flint, Michigan, any one of which would have resulted in howls from the major media if delivered by Kamala Harris. For example,

• When asked about the biggest threat to auto manufacturing jobs in Michigan, Trump responded that the biggest threat to auto jobs was “nuclear weapons.” On the one hand, Trump isn’t wrong; on the other hand, “nuclear weapons” are the biggest threat to everything on earth, so the answer was not specific to the question about auto manufacturing jobs.

• When asked how he would decrease the cost of groceries, Trump descended into a rant about windmills. He got there by promising that he would reduce the price of groceries by cutting energy costs by 50% in the first year of his term as president. Of course, presidents have virtually no power to regulate energy prices, which are set by global market conditions. That is the type of answer that the NYTimes described as “meandering” when the correct description was “bonkers.”

• Trump said that global warming would be good for Michigan because people in that state would have “more beachfront property.” Trump meant his comment to be a joke, showing that he has no conception of how global warming threatens the United States.

• Trump said that the US could become energy self-sufficient because the US has “Bagram” in Alaska, which he claimed “is bigger than Saudi Arabia.” Bagram was a US military airbase in Afghanistan and has no connection to Alaska or oil production.

Most of Trump's other remarks were impossible to follow and often ended by discussing a subject far afield from the question. It was a performance indicative ongoing mental decline. No wonder he is afraid to debate Kamala Harris a second time!

---

Pro Publica story on the death of Georgia woman denied emergency care for abortion related infection

A Georgia medical committee concluded that the death of a Georgia woman, Amber Nicole Thurman, was a preventable consequence of uncertainty caused by Georgia abortion laws that criminalize common procedures to treat miscarriages or complications of drug induced abortions. See Pro Publica, Abortion Bans Have Delayed Emergency Medical Care. In Georgia, Experts Say This Mother’s Death Was Preventable.

Given the time lag between the decision in Dobbs and the retrospective review of maternal deaths arising from anti-abortion laws, the Georgia report suggests that more cases of preventable maternal death due to abortion bans will soon emerge. As noted in the article, doctors are reluctant to provide treatment until a patient is near death.

Donald Trump takes full credit for the “Trump abortion bans” that are endangering the lives of hundreds of thousands of women each year. We can reverse those bans with a national law codifying Roe v. Wade by electing Kamala Harris, defending the Senate, and flipping the House.

Like the disinformation regarding Kamala Harris’s polling, don’t let pundits tell you that Democrats are going to lose control of the Senate. The surest way for us to do so is to give up the fight early because we believe weaponized GOP polling. Stay strong! We have the momentum and we must drive it home to victory!

---

More on project 2025

I wrote about keeping Project 2025 on people’s radar in yesterday’s newsletter. Today, Jessica Craven sent me a printable flyer that is a tremendously helpful and easy-to-read summary of the threat posed by Project 2025. The flyer is particularly helpful because it is grouped according to the impacts that Project 2025 would have on various groups of voters. See Project 2025 What It Means For You.

The guide would be great as a door hanger for canvassers or as a desk reference for phone-bankers. Check it out!

See also this Facebook page by Citizens Against Project 2025 that includes short videos and text that can be shared on social media to get out the word about Project 2025. Check out the page here.

---

Opportunities for Reader engagement

31st Street Swing Left’s fundraiser supporting AZ Legislature

Win An Arizona Trifecta and a Decisive Harris/Walz Victory!  Join Jessica Craven and amazing Arizona legislature candidates at our AZ legislature fundraiser September 25.

Arizona has virtually everything. Only 1 more seat is needed in both the AZ Senate and House for a Democratic Trifecta.  And strong legislature candidates will do the on-the-ground work and bring out voters to vote for Democrats up-ballot, for the state-wide ticket - notably 11 crucial electoral college votes, Ruben Gallego in the US Senate, 2 Key US House races and an abortion ballot initiative.  

Please join 31st Street Swing Left’s fundraiser supporting our AZ Legislature Slate, Wednesday, September 25 at 7p.m ET.   We’ve selected slates of 8 truly marvelous, competent and hardworking candidates that will make the difference.

31st Street Swing Left is an all-volunteer organization dedicated to electing Democrats, up and down the ballot, through persistence and precision. Here is the LINK TO REGISTER for this free event. And here is the LINK TO DONATE TO OUR ARIZONA SLATE.

---

Concluding Thoughts

During the debate, Trump declared himself to be a “leader on IVF, which is fertilization.” Prior to the debate, Trump promised that Republicans would pay for IVF procedures for all Americans. His statements prior to and during the debate suggest that Trump hasn’t the foggiest idea what IVF is or how complex the related procedures are. On Tuesday, Trump allowed his minions in the Senate to defeat a bill that would have protected access to IVF. See The Guardian, Senate Republicans block bill to ensure IVF access for second time.

Senate Republicans voted against the bill because it is inconsistent with the “fetal personhood” laws and platforms of many state Republican parties. Per The Guardian,

But the issue [IVF] has threatened to become a vulnerability for Republicans as some state laws passed by their party grant legal personhood not only to fetuses but to any embryos that are destroyed in the IVF process.  

As the Pro Publica article and the vote by Senate Republicans make clear, MAGA extremists have elevated the rights of a fertilized egg above the rights of the woman who is—or may in the future—carry that fertilized egg.

Simply saying that fact out loud should drive women (and the men who love them) to the polls in historic numbers. Whatever methodology pollsters are using, they are failing to detect the passion, anger, and desperation of women who are aggrieved over being treated as second-class citizens. There is a reason that Trump and JD Vance want to talk about immigrants eating pets—because discussing reproductive rights and the autonomy of women is a losing proposition for them every minute of every day.

Reproductive rights intersect directly with Project 2025, which aims to take the current extremist positions of the Republican Party even further by imposing a national abortion ban and outlawing contraception.

We cannot let that happen! We must tell everyone who listens that Democrats trust women to make decisions about their own healthcare, bodies, and family planning. Republicans don’t. It’s that simple—and that shocking. Let’s make sure everyone is aware of that fact as we head into the voting season for 2024.

Talk to you tomorrow!

---

Daily Dose of Perspective

The full moon moved into the Earth’s shadow for several hours on Tuesday evening. On the West Coast, the lunar eclipse occurred near the horizon and was difficult to see in many locations. I took the photo below in a single exposure with my SeeStar S50 smart telescope. About 3.5% of the moon was covered by the Earth’s shadow—the “umbra”—while the rest of the moon’s surface was dimmed by the Earth’s outer pale shadow known as the “penumbra.” See Lunar Eclipse Diagram | National Air and Space Museum (si.edu).