Don’t fall for “the red mirage”

November 18, 2024

The outcome of the election has been difficult to absorb because of the deliberate distortion of the scale and severity of the losses suffered by Democrats. We were warned before Election Day that there would be a “red mirage” that would create the illusion of a Republican victory in the early hours of Election Night. The hope was that Democrats would overtake Republicans as early leads from “same day” votes were offset by mail ballots and early voting tallies. Because Kamala Harris did not overtake Trump on Election Night, discussion of the “red mirage” was dislodged from the news cycle by insufferable articles that fall into two broad categories: “Scold the Democrats” and “Who’s to Blame?”.

But the red mirage was real—and it persists, distorting the true outcome of the 2024 election and deepening the disappointment of Democrats. The red mirage persists because of a disinformation campaign to create the illusion of a “mandate” that Trump did not earn on Election Day. It also persists because of the laziness, imprecision, and lack of perspective in the legacy media.

Over the weekend, Trump's share of the popular vote slipped below 50%--to 49.96%. It will continue to decline as California completes its tally over the next week. Kamala Harris currently has 48.24% of the popular vote. See Cook Political Report, 2024 National Popular Vote Tracker.

Failing to garner a majority of the election day vote does not constitute a mandate (no matter how many times Trumpworld repeats that lie). Moreover, Kamala Harris’s current 1.7% deficit in the popular vote qualifies as the third narrowest loss in the last 136 years! See Meidas Touch, Resistance HQ Bulletin 6 - by Ron Filipkowski.

Trump's alleged “landslide” in electoral college ballots is also a mirage. As noted in the Meidas Touch article above, Kamala Harris could have won the electoral college if she had garnered an additional 238,000 votes in three swing states.

The tales of a “mandate” or “landslide” are fiction. The election was extraordinarily close—as predicted all along. But elections are binary and being “extraordinarily close” does not convert a loss into a win.

Still, being “extraordinarily close” should help us put the 2024 election into perspective. Many readers are understandably bewildered by the (incorrect) notion that the “majority” of Americans voted for Trump. As I explained in an earlier newsletter, 93 million Americans eligible to vote did not do so. Those 93 million eligible voters dwarf the 76.5 million vote total currently held by Trump.

Of course, we do not know how those 93 million eligible voters would have voted, but we do know—as a matter of fact—that they did not vote for Trump in 2024. So, let’s excise from our narrative that the “majority of Americans” voted for Trump. That is not true—not by a long shot!

Finally, the red/blue maps that depict Trump's electoral college victory are grossly misleading. Land does not vote. People do. So, the traditional “winner take all” color-coding as depicted in the Cook Political Report map creates a distorted image of scale of Trump's victory in 2024. A state that Trump won by several thousand votes is solidly red—effectively erasing the millions of Democrats who supported Kamala Harris.

Don’t be misled or fooled. Don’t allow yourself to be lied to by bad actors who seek to use the “red mirage” to create the illusion that Trump has a mandate to trample the rule of law or ignore the Constitution. He does not. About one-third of eligible voters cast their ballots in favor of Trump. That is not a mandate. It is a narrow victory that is being contorted into a red mirage.

Most importantly, do not allow the red mirage to deepen your disappointment or undermine your faith in our ability to recover from the 2024 electoral outcome. Victory is tantalizingly close at hand. We must keep the faith and stay the course, despite our understandable disappointment.

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GOP margin in the House continues to shrink

To place an exclamation point on the above story, determined Democrats are curing ballots in federal and state races to great success. Rather than giving up, these brave souls have thrown themselves into the fight even though they are as disappointed as the rest of us.

The House currently has 218 GOP seats and 212 Democratic seats—with five seats to be called. Democrats currently lead in two of the five still contested races, suggesting that Democrats will have at least 215 votes—with the possibility of 216. Those margins would give Republicans only a two or three seat margin of control in the House—a weak position that will require Republicans to rely on Democratic cooperation on many issues. See NYTimes, Tracking the Remaining House Races. Accessible to all.

And because Trump has nominated three GOP House members to his cabinet, it is possible that Republicans will have a one-vote margin for the early months of the 119th Congress. (Vacant seats in the House must be filled by special election, not by gubernatorial appointment. See Ballotpedia, Filling vacancies in the U.S. House of Representatives.)

Democrats have fought their way back to a narrow margin because of the incredible vote curing efforts on behalf of Derek Tran (CA 45) who was losing by 3,000 votes but now leads by 36 votes. Those efforts continue—as do efforts for other candidates, including Adam Gray (CA-13), who is trailing by 2,004 votes. And I hope that there is an all-hands-on-deck ballot curing effort for Christina Bohannan (IA-1), who currently trails by only 801 votes!

While the failure of Democrats to gain control of the House is a bitter pill, we must remember that Speaker Mike Johnson was required to rely on Democrats multiple times in the 118th Congress to pass legislation. That same phenomenon will be in effect in the 119th Congress.

Moreover, eight House Republicans won races by less than 10,000 votes. Trump's lurch to the right with this cabinet nominations should cause those Republicans to consider whether they are vulnerable in 2026 if they support the extremist agenda implied by his cabinet nominations.

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Watch Professor Laurence Tribe explain why he believes that democratic institutions will prevail

During the 2024 campaign, commentators frequently referred to “the end of democracy” if Trump won. That phrasing was meant to evoke the urgent threat posed by a second Trump presidency. But it should not have been understood to suggest that democracy would literally end if Trump won. The only way that could happen is if hundreds of millions of Americans rolled over and refused to battle for democracy. That isn’t going to happen—because you and I are not going to let it happen.

Professor Laurence Tribe appeared on MSNBC to explain why he believes that democratic institutions will survive the stress test of second Trump presidency. See MSNBC, Laurence Tribe: It’s not over. The resistance is about to ignite.

If you are worried about democracy—and you should be—you should listen to Professor Tribe explain why he believes that our democracy will endure and prevail. As Professor Tribe explains, the United States benefits from a decentralized government that can serve as a strong counterweight to Trump’s authoritarian ambitions. It’s within this space — the system of checks and balances — that the resistance will emerge.

Watch Professor’s Tribe’s explanation. It will renew your confidence—as it did for me! Most importantly, Professor Tribe reminds us that everyone has a role in the resistance to Trump's plans to circumvent and weaken the Constitution and rule of law!

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President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use US missiles to strike Russia.

Legacy media is reporting that President Biden has authorized Ukraine to use US missiles to strike “within Russia.” That description confused me. After reading several articles, it is clear that the authorization is to allow Ukraine to use the missiles inside Russian territory that Ukraine has already captured from Russia—i.e., Kursk Oblast,  See The Guardian, Biden lifts ban on Ukraine using US weapons to strike deeper into Russia.

Per The Guardian,

US President Joe Biden has authorized Ukrainian forces to use US-provided ATACMS in limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets within Kursk Oblast. The NYT and Washington Post reported on November 17 that unspecified US officials expect Ukrainian forces to initially conduct strikes against Russian and North Korean forces within Kursk Oblast and that the Biden Administration could expand this authorization to use ATACMS against targets elsewhere in Russia in the future.

Notably, the US missiles in question have a range of only 190 miles. Russia apparently anticipated the US granting authorization to Ukraine to use the missiles. Russia reportedly withdrew all aircraft from the range of the US missiles several weeks ago.

Nonetheless, the expanded authorization is a clear attempt to help Ukraine gain a strategic advantage in advance any peace talks forced on Ukraine by Trump's withdrawal of support for Ukraine.

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Opportunities for Reader Engagement

I receive the weekly newsletter from Downtown Nasty Women Social Group. The latest newsletter includes this time-sensitive request:

Monday, Nov 18, 10am-noon: Postcards for Mississippi runoff & conversation  
Co-hosting with Markers For Democracy and Team Min

There’s a runoff for a seat on the Mississippi Supreme Court and we can help the incumbent beat his MAGA Republican opponent! We only have until Tuesday to mail the postcards. Join us for any part of the morning.  

NOTE: this is not our recurring Monday link.
Please use this link:
Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/81815115622?pwd=K2hZbnZvUUN6bUZRQ2JZeSsrMjRtdz09 
Passcode: 057561

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Concluding Thoughts

There is more news on the nomination front and posturing over recess appointments. I will cover those developments tomorrow—in part because the news is developing quickly as the Republican Party tries to sort out its response to Trump's manifestly unqualified cabinet secretaries and senior officers.

I have been thinking about individual actions that everyone can take to help resist Trump's assault on the rule of law and strengthen the grassroots movement. One action that I am taking is to leave Twitter and join Bluesky (as @rbhubbell.bsky.social). Bluesky is an alternative to Twitter and many Twitter users are adopting Bluesky as their new home in the face of Elon Musk’s role in electing Trump and serving as Trump's unofficial vice-president (or co-president?).

I don’t expect to do a lot of original posting on Bluesky. My focus is (and will remain) this newsletter. But I have committed to reposting comments by other commentators who are move active on Bluesky—like Democracy Docket (@democracydocket.com), Marc Elias (@marcelias), Joyce Vance (@joycewhitevance), Barb McQuade, (@barbmcquade), Jill Wine-Banks (@jillwine-banks), Rebecca Solnit (@rebeccasolnit), Meidas Touch News (@meidastouch), and Aaron Rupar (@atrupar).

Reposting and amplifying comments by progressive voices like the above will encourage them to adopt Bluesky as their primary social media platform. It would be a great benefit to democracy to have a social media platform that is not controlled by the president-elect or his chief cheerleader.

This isn’t a pitch for Bluesky. We should adopt this strategy for any platform that provides an alternative to the collapsing legacy media and the captive right wing platforms of Truth Social and Twitter. Substack is obviously one of those alternatives. Let’s help it grow by supporting Democratic, liberal, and progressive voices. Meidas Touch just joined Substack—and I have cited it twice in this newsletter.

Part of our mission in the resistance is to build our own media infrastructure that is not controlled by corporate overlords and timid publishers who are afraid to stand up to Trump. The ongoing collapse of legacy media is creating a void. Let’s fill it with voices that will defend democracy. You can be part of that effort—if only by “reposting” or sharing those who are willing to take an active role on social media sites.

It is a tough job being a thought leader on platforms where trolls and miscreants take joy in creating havoc. Let’s lift up those brave souls who are speaking for democracy.

Talk to you tomorrow!

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Daily Dose of Perspective

The image below needs a bit of background. The nebula in the center is IC 410. The light beams in the lower left corner are from the Earth’s moon, which sits just out of the frame to the lower right.

Normally, the last thing an astronomer wants to do is take a photo of an object near the moon—because the moon’s brightness overwhelms the faint stream of photons from deep space objects.

I used astrophotography software to target IC 410 while I was chatting with my wife and readers, Steve and Ellen Hill. Apart from being rude, my multitasking caused me to select a target that was about 1 degree of separation from the moon—which I failed to notice.

When I downloaded the photo from my camera and began to process it for publication, I noticed the beams of light that appear in the lower right and gradually brighten. Confused, I checked my astronomy app and saw that IC 410 was sitting adjacent to the moon.

But the image turned out to be pleasing and interesting. So I share it with you!

IC 410 is 12,400 light years from Earth. The moon is 1.25 light seconds from Earth!

Enjoy!