Democrats should be hopeful.
May 5, 2023
On a day of dramatic developments, let’s start with a positive story that should give all Democrats hope for 2024. The story begins with the fact that the GOP has been captured by MAGA extremists able to win Republican primaries but not general elections. Mitch McConnell described that dynamic as a “candidate quality” problem for the Republican Party. In dozens of races, Republicans nominated extremists, QAnon adherents, January 6th insurrection supporters, and election deniers. They paid the price at the ballot box in the 2022 midterms. The expected “red wave” failed to materialize because Republicans are out-of-step with America.
Democrats have pursued the opposite strategy. They have nominated stellar candidates who appeal to Democrats, persuadable Independents, and disaffected Republicans. While those stellar candidates did not always win (e.g., Mandela Barnes and Cheri Beasley), enough succeeded to allow Democrats to retain control of the Senate and stay within striking distance in the House.
Democrats are repeating that successful strategy heading into 2024. Rep. Colin Allred of Texas has announced a bid to unseat Senator Ted Cruz. Colin Allred’s campaign announcement is here: Colin Allred: Our Team is Texas.
As a personal favor to me, I ask you to watch Colin Allred’s campaign video in full.
After watching the video, you will be filled with renewed confidence that Democrats can win control of Congress in 2024 and retain the presidency. We have candidates who speak to the needs of Americans during challenging times. Republican candidates are intent on dividing Americans with fabricated controversies. On average, and over time, our vision and approach will prevail. And please take one more action: share Colin Allred’s campaign video far and wide! We are on solid footing going into 2024!
Trump's deepening legal peril.
The jury in the criminal trial of the Proud Boys returned partial verdicts on Thursday. Those verdicts included convictions of four of five members of the Proud Boys on seditious conspiracy charges. The fifth member was convicted on conspiracy and obstruction charges, which are equally serious.
The partial verdicts were a major victory for the DOJ and all Americans. And they increase the likelihood that the person who incited the Proud Boys to insurrection on January 6th—Donald Trump—will be charged with seditious conspiracy. The defense mounted by the Proud Boys included the claim that they were acting on orders from Donald Trump. While that is no defense to their actions, Jack Smith should believe their claims and use their statements against Trump. See, e.g., Dennis Aftergut on MSNBC, Proud Boys found guilty, worsening Donald Trump’s legal woes.
As Aftergut explains,
The convictions add to the former president’s legal woes. Recall the first presidential debate in 2020, when Trump famously told the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by.” The effect of that callout to the militants became visible to the nation on Jan. 6, and again to the jury here. At trial, the government introduced a message from one Proud Boy who wrote right after the debate that “Donald has given us a command.” Prosecutors also introduced the group’s messages suggesting that some coordination with the White House may have occurred before Jan. 6.
Whether Jack Smith will charge Trump with seditious conspiracy is uncertain. What is certain is that Smith is seriously considering that question tonight in light of the conviction of the Proud Boys (and the Oath Keepers) on seditious conspiracy charges. Importantly, Enrique Tarrio was convicted of seditious conspiracy even though he was not physically present in Washington D.C. on January 6th—a precedent that should worry Trump.
The pace of the federal investigation against Trump is excruciating. Still, the conviction of the foot soldiers in Trump's insurrection is a positive development for everyone who yearns for accountability and a return to the rule of law—concepts that are inextricably intertwined as they relate to the January 6th insurrection.
One final editorial note: The urgency of Jack Smith’s task increases daily. On the campaign trail, Trump is embracing criminal defendants convicted of assaulting the Capitol on January 6th and is promoting a recording that mixes Trump reciting the Pledge of Allegiance with January 6th defendants singing the Star Spangled Banner. Trump could not be clearer in signaling that he intends to renew the insurrection he began on January 6th. While it is gratifying to see Jack Smith’s progress, he is running out of runway before political events potentially overtake and nullify efforts by the DOJ to indict and convict Trump.
Jack Smith has cooperating witness on Mar-a-Lago defense secrets case.
The New York Times published an important article on Thursday that contained two revelations regarding Jack Smith’s investigation into the theft of defense secrets documents. The article is here (and is accessible to all): NYTimes, Justice Dept. Intensifying Efforts to Determine if Trump Hid Documents.
The Times article reveals that Jack Smith has secured the cooperation of a former Mar-a-Lago employee regarding the location and movement of documents. In other words, Jack Smith may have eye-witness testimony regarding Trump's efforts to hide the documents from the FBI after the issuance of a subpoena. It would be a slam-dunk obstruction of justice charge and conviction if that occurred.
Second, the NYTimes article reveals that Jack Smith is investigating whether the video recording from security cameras at Mar-a-Lago was altered before it was provided to the FBI. The video recording apparently contains gaps. (Sound familiar?) If the video was altered, people are going to prison—for a long time. See Talking Points Memo, Jack Smith Probes Whether MAL Video Was Tampered With. To avoid lengthy prison sentences, the people who (may have) altered the video should cooperate with Jack Smith.
Smith is pursuing the stolen documents case with vigor and urgency—suggesting he believes that Trump has significant criminal exposure. A strong case regarding theft of defense secrets could provide leverage to force Trump to plead guilty to other charges. Jack Smith has Trump on the defensive. Let’s hope he acts soon enough for the American people to factor indictments into their votes for presidential candidates in 2024.
More revelations of corruption committed by Justice Thomas.
The pace of revelations of corruption involving Justice Thomas is accelerating. At some point, even the feckless John Roberts will be forced to acknowledge that the wave of scandals threatens to swamp the Court. On Thursday, we learned of two new instances of wealthy individuals funneling money to Justice Thomas and his wife. As with other instances, Thomas failed to report gifts and income on annual disclosure forms he filed.
Before looking at the details, let’s step back to recognize two aspects of the scandals that have received little attention. First, Justice Thomas is free to accept gifts. But he must disclose them so that other Justices, their clerks, and parties appearing before the Court can evaluate whether Thomas was encumbered by ethical conflicts that required his recusal. By concealing the gifts, Justice Thomas prevented others from considering whether Thomas failed to comply with applicable ethical requirements.
Second, gifts must be reported on federal tax returns. Not all gifts trigger tax liabilities, but that is beside the point. The IRS cannot evaluate whether tax is owed if gifts are not reported. Did Thomas report gifts from Harlan Crow on his federal tax returns? That is a question that the DOJ and Chief Justice Roberts should be asking tonight. See The Hill, The potential gift tax implications of Clarence Thomas’s luxury trips.
Two new disclosures suggest that wealthy donors subsidized Justice Thomas’s lifestyle beyond lavish travel and extravagant gifts. Pro Publica reported Thursday that Harlan Crow paid for private school tuition for Justice Thomas's grand-nephew, whom Thomas “raised as a son.” See Pro Publica, Clarence Thomas Had a Child in Private School. Harlan Crow Paid the Tuition.
Per Pro Publica,
Tuition at the boarding school ran more than $6,000 a month. But Thomas did not cover the bill. A bank statement for the school from July 2009, buried in unrelated court filings, shows the source of Martin’s tuition payment for that month: the company of billionaire real estate magnate Harlan Crow. [¶¶]
. . . . The exact total Crow paid for Martin’s education over the years remains unclear. If he paid for all four years at the two schools, the price tag could have exceeded $150,000, according to public records of tuition rates at the schools.
Separately, the Washington Post reported that Kellyanne Conway funneled money from Leonard Leo (head of the Federalist Society) to Ginni Thomas—Clarence Thomas’s wife. Per the Post, Leonard Leo told Conway to “give” $25,000 to Ginni Thomas but to make “no mention of Ginni.” See WaPo, Judicial activist directed fees to Clarence Thomas’s wife, urged ‘no mention of Ginni’.
The facts reported by the Washington Post suggest bribery. It is incumbent on Justice Thomas to explain why the secret transfer of $25,000 to Ginni Thomas was a lawful payment for services rendered (or a gift) and why it was not reported on Thomas’s annual disclosure form. The failure to report was likely a crime even if the payment was legal.
Last Saturday, this newsletter was entitled “The Supreme Court in free fall.” In four short days, the Court has gone from “free fall” to “spontaneous combustion.” The Court has become a laughingstock, and Chief Justice Roberts has become a court jester. Roberts has a narrow window to show that the Court cares about its legitimacy before the stain of Thomas’s scandals becomes indelible. If Roberts refuses to act, other Justices should issue statements calling on Roberts and Thomas to dispel the cloud hanging over the Court.
Other stories.
To limit today’s newsletter to a reasonable length, I will discuss in tomorrow’s newsletter the North Carolina bill to ban abortion after twelve weeks, as well as developments in the E. Jean Carroll trial and efforts to raise the debt ceiling. Finally, I will briefly discuss Trump's effort to remove the Manhattan state court criminal case to federal court.
Concluding Thoughts.
If you didn’t watch Colin Allred’s campaign launch video, the link is here so you can watch it now: Colin Allred: Our Team is Texas. You will be glad you did.
The momentum is shifting against Trump. He will be indicted at least once and perhaps three times more. That will not dissuade him from running for president, nor will it embolden Republicans to force him off the ticket. Having surrendered to Trump, they are incapable of ridding themselves of him. It is difficult to imagine a more compromised, less attractive candidate for persuadable independents in 2024—without whom no presidential candidate can win. Still, Trump remains uniquely dangerous to democracy. We cannot minimize the threat posed by Trump.
The anti-Trump sentiment in the electorate in 2024 will exceed that of 2020 by a substantial degree. The 2020 election did not anticipate future events like January 6th or multiple indictments for seditious conspiracy, insurrection, and espionage. Nor did the 2020 election contemplate Trump's embrace of insurrectionists and traitors. Finally, although Trump had appointed Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett, the Dobbs decision was issued after Trump left the White House. Trump will be held responsible for the cruel anti-reproductive liberty legislation sweeping through red states.
Here’s the point: We have every reason to be hopeful but no reason to be complacent. Tonight, I am feeling particularly hopeful about our future. I hope you are feeling that way, too.
Talk to you tomorrow!
For anyone interested in helping Contest Every Race to recruit candidates, they are holding a volunteer training tomorrow. MovementLabs does a lot of texting for them. It’s important work!
https://www.mobilize.us/movementlabs/event/547287/?force_banner=true&share_context=event_details&share_medium=copy_link
Yes, Robert, today was a very enlightening day. It was so pleasurable to see the seditious conspiracy charges against these thugs. What really made my eyes pop out was Kellyanne’s secret little meeting with Leonard Leo. What a stool pigeon she is but again, not surprising. Wonder if she, when interviewed by Smith or his staff, tried to use “alternate facts” as some of her answers. 😁
Leo is as much the kingpin as Trump, in my opinion. He feels he is untouchable because he sits on a golden throne, high on a hill. I would not doubt that he is the one, along with his rich cronies, who paid Kavanaugh’s debts off. I dunno, it all stinks to high heaven. Let’s make them all go away. Let’s win in 2024 and get rid of the filibuster, put ERA back where it belongs, enact the John Lewis Act, delete Citizens United, rejoice in making abortions legal and safe again, and go forward with Biden’s plan for energy and climate change! Goodnight.