Democracy is not a “horse race.”

November 15, 2022

          We are about to enter another election cycle in which Donald Trump is “on the ballot.” As we do, we must remember the lesson of the 2022 midterms: Polls and the media narrative do not determine our destiny—we do. We must not fall into the media trap of reducing our most sacred political tradition into a “horse race” where the only question is, “Who is the frontrunner?” The real question is, “Who is most qualified to lead our nation?” Let’s not let the media forget that fact when they mindlessly discuss insurrectionists and traitors as if they are concerned citizens seeking office to promote the public good.

         On Tuesday, Trump will announce his third candidacy for the US presidency in seven years. Even before the announcement, the media has begun reporting on the “horse race” for the nomination between Trump and Florida governor Ron DeSantis. We should steel ourselves for eighteen months more of the same superficial drivel. The story is not that the GOP has two “frontrunners” for the 2024 nomination. The real story is that the leading GOP contenders include a twice-impeached, coup-plotting ex-president who stole defense secrets and a governor whose reckless policies during the pandemic killed tens of thousands of Floridians. Neither man is fit to hold any public office, much less the presidency. And yet the media will be unable (or unwilling) to look away from the “horse race” they created to increase ratings.

          Two years out, polls are worse than meaningless. Like entropy, they are a measure of our ignorance. Most respondents who backed Ron DeSantis in the most recent poll know his name but would be hard-pressed to identify a single policy he has promoted—apart from “owning the libs.”  

          The media is flocking to the DeSantis narrative like moths to a flame. “Puff pieces” on DeSantis and his wife ignore the 80,000 excess deaths in Florida due to reckless COVID denialism, his attacks on LGBTQ people in Florida, the criminalization of reproductive liberty, and the attempt to whitewash US history. Even DeSantis’s win in Florida is being lionized without any semblance of critical reporting by the media. As Mehdi Hassan commented on MSNBC, Democrats prevailed in more challenging races for governor in purple states but are receiving none of the fawning attention the press is lavishing on DeSantis.

          So, ignore the “hype” about Trump and DeSantis that will be the media’s mainstay over the next eighteen months. Both candidates have huge deficits that will alienate millions of Americans and undermine their electability. We should not dismiss either candidate, but neither should we ascribe to them superpowers they do not have. They are deeply flawed misanthropes with thin skin and deep insecurities. We have seen the type before—in 2016 and 2020. We know how to win. We can do it again.

Trump couldn’t have picked a worse moment to announce his 2024 bid.

          Trump will announce his bid for the 2024 GOP nomination on Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago. His strength is greatly diminished, and his legal troubles are expanding by the hour. Announcing a presidential bid at this moment reeks of desperation. For good reason: The DOJ has sufficient evidence to indict Trump on charges of espionage, obstruction of justice, election interference, conspiracy to defraud the United States, and (possibly) insurrection.

          Now is the time to strike. Preeminent legal commentators and DOJ alumni are urging Garland to act. As Laurence Tribe tweeted,

          Mr. Attorney General, It’s Too Late to Appoint A Special Counsel—but now that the 60-day window has closed, it’s time to indict Donald Trump for espionage and related federal felonies including obstruction.

          Andrew Weissman tweeted

          Times up, DOJ. The rule of law requires Trump be held to account, as others have been for like crimes. It's been over 14 weeks since the MAL search and many months since the DOJ investigation began. Timely action is needed.

          See also, Martin London, DO. IT. NOW. As only Marty can put it:

          I’m glad the Great Grifter is going to announce his candidacy tomorrow or the next day. The more he speaks, the more headlines he produces, the more attention will be paid to his criminality, and the greater will be the demand on the Department of Justice to do justice.

          Lock him up. Now.

          Two revelations on Monday will ratchet up the political pressure on the DOJ to act sooner rather than later. Per a report in the NYTimes, Trump pressured his former Chief of Staff John Kelly to urge the IRS to investigate two of Trump’s enemies—FBI Director James Comey and Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. See Trump Wanted I.R.S. Investigations of Foes, Top Aide Says - The New York Times.

          The Times reported earlier this year that both Comey and McCabe had been selected for intensive IRS audits that target a tiny fraction of American taxpayers. The IRS Inspector General has conducted an investigation into the allegations. If Trump did pressure the IRS to audit his enemies, that is another felony committed by Trump.

          The House Government Oversight Committee disclosed that foreign nations spent lavishly at the Trump hotel in Washington, D.C. as they were lobbying the Trump administration for favorable treatment. See NYTimes,  Documents Detail Foreign Government Spending at Trump Hotel. Although Eric Trump claims that the Trump Organization made a voluntary payment each year to the US Treasury for the profit realized by the hotel from foreign nations, the Trump Organization did not provide a detail of which foreign governments stayed at the hotel or how much they spent.

          Mike Pence finally said the quiet part out loud—that Trump endangered the Vice President and his family on January 6th. Pence’s comments were prominently reported by Fox News. See Mike Pence says Trump 'endangered me and my family' with 'reckless' words on January 6 | Fox News. And to make matters worse for Trump, GOP Senator Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming) said that Ron DeSantis “is the current leader of the Republican Party.” And the conservative commentator Marc A. Thiessen penned an op-ed in WaPo, Dear President Trump: Please don’t run again.

Thiessen says,

          Donald Trump appears to be surrounded by a band of enablers who refuse to tell him things he doesn’t want to hear, so I will: Mr. President, it is not in your interest to run in 2024. If you do, you will likely lose. And you will destroy what remains of your legacy in the process. Please, don’t do it.

          Against this unfavorable background, Trump has decided to announce a run for the presidency—to stay relevant and to stay out of jail. No one should count Trump out. He has a feral instinct to fight dirty and retains the loyalty of a substantial portion of the GOP. As Democrats begin looking forward to 2024 with concerns about the Senate map and the need to re-take the House, we should take some comfort in the fact that our opponents have way more problems than we do. We should never count on Republicans to defeat themselves, but we should not assume that Democrats are the only party with challenges.

President Biden on the world stage.

          With a renewed sense of political strength in the US, President Biden met with President Xi of China. The two leaders shook hands, met for three hours, and agreed to cooperate on international issues, including climate change and food insecurity. See MSN, Biden and Xi agree to resume cooperation on fighting climate change.

          Although no substantive agreements were reached, the meeting itself was notable. Just weeks ago, the Biden administration imposed devastating sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry—the toughest sanctions ever issued against China. See The Independent, US sanctions on Chinese semiconductors ‘decapitate’ industry, experts say. It will take China a decade to “catch up” to the rest of the world in semiconductor manufacturing after Biden’s sanctions. So, the budding cooperation between the US and China in other areas is notable.

          As usual, critics in the media and the GOP found fault with Biden’s accomplishments. Fox News criticized Biden for “failing” to raise China’s responsibility for COVID-19 or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—two issues that amount to lecturing China about grievances. Biden chose to focus on forward-looking issues that the US and China can improve—the climate crisis and global food insecurity. As usual, in his own steady but understated way, Joe Biden continues to deliver on the promise of his presidency.

Clarence Thomas continues to disgrace the Supreme Court.

          On Monday, the US Supreme Court ruled that Arizona GOP Chair Kelli Ward must turn over documents to the January 6th Committee. Recall that Ginni Thomas lobbied Arizona legislators to overturn the 2020 election—the subject matter underlying the January 6th Committee’s request. Accordingly, Justice Thomas should have recused himself from consideration of the matter because communications between Ginni Thomas and Arizona legislators might be included in the documents requested by the subpoena.

          In ruling on Kelli Ward’s request, Thomas violated federal law and further disgraced the Court. See Laurence Tribe, who tweeted,

Justice Thomas violated 28 USC 455 (a) & 28 USC 455 (b)(5)(iii) by not recusing himself from this 7-2 decision: His wife Ginny pressed 29 GOP AZ lawmakers to overturn Biden's victory. He knew she had "an interest that could  be affected by the outcome."

          If Democrats lose control of the House, the opportunity to expand the Court is lost until Democrats regain control of both chambers of Congress and the presidency. Short of impeaching Justice Thomas (which is unlikely to happen), we must look to the other justices on the Supreme Court to call out Thomas’s unethical and illegal behavior. That should be John Roberts’s job, but he has demonstrated that he is not up to the task.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Katie Hobbs beat election-denier Kari Lake in the race for governor of Arizona. It is possible that Lake will make wild claims that the election was “stolen”—taking a page from Trump’s playbook at the moment when that playbook is being blamed for the GOP’s disastrous performance in the midterms. Lake had been touted as a female equivalent of Trump and DeSantis—but with better television presence. So, her defeat—and her impending tantrum—may damage her status as a possible running mate (or contender) in 2024. Another unexpected benefit of the Democratic victories in 2022!

          There are lessons in the many unexpected victories and unintended consequences of the 2022 midterms: There is value in contesting every race on every ballot. There is value in every postcard, text, phone call, and door knock. We will never know whether, when, or how our efforts will pay off. But unless we undertake those efforts, we will miss opportunities that are open to us. In a closely divided electorate, we cannot afford to give up that advantage.

          Two final notes. In yesterday’s Comments section, reader Ellie Kona posted a list of opportunities for ballot curing and supporting Raphael Warnock’s runoff election. Reader Stephen Unger posted an important note about voter I.D. requirements in Georgia that are relevant to the Warnock runoff. I have posted both of those notes in the Comments section to this newsletter and pinned them to the top of the section for easy access. Please take a moment to read both notes—they are important. Thanks to Ellie and Stephen for the information!

          Talk to you tomorrow!