Converting enthusiasm into votes!
July 31, 2024
It has been only ten days since Joe Biden endorsed Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for president. The political world has changed dramatically in those ten days. Events are moving so quickly that we haven’t had enough time to fully assess the impact of Kamala Harris’s entry into the presidential race. Polling is always a lagging indicator, and the media is still trying to identify its storyline regarding Kamala Harris. (Although they have latched onto the apt description of MAGA white nationalists obsessed with female reproductive organs as “weird.”)
While we may not be able to anticipate how the race will unfold, one thing is certain: we must convert the current wave of enthusiasm into votes. If we can do that, we will win! With that goal in mind, let’s take a look at where things stand at the ten-day mark.
The most important development and strongest indicator of reality is the enthusiasm among Democrats.
The wave of enthusiasm is real. Before Kamala Harris entered the race, Democrats were not routinely hosting Zoom calls with tens of thousands of attendees. (I know; I hosted a “Women for Biden” Zoom three days before the President dropped out. We got 1,300 attendees and were ecstatic.) Zoom calls with tens of thousands of attendees—even a hundred thousand plus—are daily occurrences.
Grassroots groups are reporting skyrocketing attendance at their regular Zoom calls. Voter registrations and the number of volunteers at organizations devoted to getting out the vote are also off the charts. Crowd size and enthusiasm at Kamala Harris's appearances are surpassing those of Donald Trump. See the embedded video here: Harris’ rally in Georgia.
Something has shifted in the firmament. We can all see it and feel it. The change is real.
The polls are noisy and subject to misinterpretation.
As always, we should ignore the polls. But looking at trends over time is less fraught. Those trends show that Kamala Harris has captured the momentum in the race. Individual polls are noisy and susceptible to manipulation and misinterpretation by bad actors. But the trends show a national race that is tightening, competitive, and effectively tied. V.P. Harris is making up ground that Joe Biden had lost at the national level and is solidifying or pulling ahead in a few swing states.
While we should be heartened by the polls in general, we should not be misled. To win, we must convert the enthusiasm for Kamala Harris into votes. It is not enough to show up and donate at a Zoom call (although that is a great start). The real measure of devotion and commitment is helping to get out the vote by texting, post-carding, phone-banking, and door-knocking to help drive voters to the polls.
If you cannot look away from the polls, I recommend two sources. First, Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo. Josh always takes the long view from a high level and adds a healthy dash of skepticism. For those who want a data-driven deep dive, I recommend a newsletter called No Jive Joe. The analysis in No Jive Joe is first-rate and is free of the bias and snark of the NYTimes.
We must shape the media narrative
By its nature, the political media is contrarian. It has been impossible for the media to ignore the outpouring of enthusiasm for Kamala Harris. Still, we should expect the media to turn on Kamala Harris and Democrats. It is just a question of when. Media outlets will begin featuring stories with random voters—likely young, diverse, female—who support Trump or are doubtful about Kamala. Such random interviews are worse than meaningless. They are efforts to distort reality and mislead readers about the true nature of the race.
When such stories begin to appear, recognize them for what they are: lazy reporting by journalists who can’t be bothered with the hard work of reporting the truth. Instead, they will default to the “Just asking questions” brand of false reporting. (“Is Kamala in trouble?” “Can she sustain the enthusiasm?”) I saw an article today from someone who wanted Biden to withdraw, asking, “Was Kamala the right choice?” Thankfully, he was being overwhelmed by negative comments from readers.
One way to fight the contrarian news cycle is to spread the good news of Kamala’s candidacy and the incredible energy of the Democratic base. For now, we have the upper hand; we are controlling the narrative and should be “flooding the zone” with positive messaging for Kamala Harris.
But this cannot be said enough: The election will be won on the ground in fifty states by ensuring a historic turnout of voters. That effort will take hundreds of thousands of volunteers. Be one of those volunteers. If you haven’t joined a grassroots group already, do so ASAP. If you already belong, recruit new volunteers and mentor new members. We have less than 100 days left to get this done, but we have every reason to be hopeful—and no reason to be complacent.
Project 2025 is alive and well!
Don’t believe the reports that Project 2025 has been shut down. It is alive and well.
The only thing that happened on Tuesday is that one member of The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank in D.C., has been fired. That member, Paul Dans, played a key role in developing Project 2025, but other leaders of the Project remain at the Heritage Foundation. Nothing else has changed:
The blueprint that forms the backbone of Project 2025 still exists;
The Heritage Foundation still exists and will continue work on Project 2025 (See NPR, Project 2025 shakeup, but personnel work will continue)
The list of Trump “shock troopers” who plan to take over the administrative state still exists and is being expanded (Per the Heritage Foundation: “Our collective efforts to build a personnel apparatus for policymakers of all levels—federal, state, and local—will continue.”)
The list of existing career civil servants targeted for firing on January 6, 2025, still exists.
The Trump campaign forced the Heritage Foundation to fire Paul Dans—a show of power and influence that shows the Trump campaign controls Project 2025. See Daily Beast, Trump Forces Out Project 2025 Mastermind. (“A well-placed source told the Daily Beast . . . Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita “put the screws” to mastermind Paul Dans in an effort to force him out . . . .”)
The Harris Campaign issued a statement that said, in part,
Project 2025 isn’t going anywhere. Project 2025 is on the ballot because Donald Trump is on the ballot. This is his agenda, written by his allies, for Donald Trump to inflict on our country. Hiding the 920-page blueprint from the American people doesn’t make it less real — in fact, it should make voters more concerned about what else Trump and his allies are hiding
More on Biden-Harris proposals for Supreme Court reform
On Tuesday, Professor Tribe endorsed President Biden’s proposals for Supreme Court reform and a constitutional amendment removing the presidential immunity granted in Trump v. US. Per public reporting, the Biden administration began consulting Professor Tribe after he published an op-ed in The Guardian urging many of the reforms that are now included in President Biden’s proposals. Professor Tribe and Dennis Aftergut have published a follow-up op-ed in The Guardian, US supreme court reform is now on the table. The election stakes just got higher.
In endorsing term limits, Tribe and Aftergut wrote,
The term limits, Biden said, would allow future presidents to appoint a justice every two years and make high court nominations “more predictable and less arbitrary”. In other words, when Americans elect successive presidents of different parties, we wouldn’t have presidents of one party getting three justices confirmed during a four-year term – as happened with Trump – and presidents of the other party getting only one appointment, as happened with Biden, or two in an eight-year term, as happened with Barack Obama.
Biden noted that the United States is the only major constitutional democracy that gives lifetime appointments to its high court justices.
And on the question of presidential immunity, Tribe and Aftergut argue that
Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and every American patriot who fought for our independence from a king would be shocked that any president would need to remind the US supreme court of that premise.
As Professor Tribe says, Supreme Court reform is on the ballot in 2024. Although such reforms seem technical or arcane, the liberties and rights of tens of millions of Americans are at stake—including same-sex marriage, contraception, emergency medical care that includes abortions, and the equal representation and voting rights of Black citizens.
We have no choice except to impose the reforms. CNN published a story today that gives the “inside” scoop on the Trump immunity decision. It is clear that the reactionary justices have radicalized John Roberts, and he now sees himself as a leader of that faction on the Court. See CNN, The inside story of John Roberts and Trump’s immunity win at the Supreme Court. We must rein in the Court if we hope to stop the rogue reactionary majority from inflicting greater damage on our democracy. John Roberts isn’t going to do it. It is up to us!
Democratic National Convention roll call to start Thursday, August 1
The Democratic National Convention will start its virtual roll call on Thursday, August 1. Vice President Kamala Harris is the only candidate to have qualified for the roll call. Because the delegates must vote on nominees for president and vice president, we should expect Kamala Harris to reveal her choice for vice president in the next forty-eight hours. She will begin campaigning with her vice presidential nominee in Philadelphia next week! Game on!
Kamala Harris challenges Trump in a campaign appearance in Atlanta, GA
Kamala Harris gave a rousing speech to an enthusiastic crowd in Atlanta, Georgia on Tuesday. The full video is here: Kamala Harris holds Atlanta campaign rally. Notably, the speech was carried by the local Fox affiliate in Atlanta.
As noted by others, Kamala Harris is hitting her stride. She was confident, joyful, and tenacious as she challenged Trump to “say it to my face” in a debate! Harris was feeding off the energy of the crowds, creating a populist feeling that was missing from Joe Biden’s rallies. Donald Trump will hold a rally next week in the same venue. It will be interesting to see if Trump enjoys himself as much as Kamala Harris clearly did.
Opportunities for Reader engagement
Today’s Edition for Rep Dan Goldman (NY-10) with Today’s Edition readers
I am holding a discussion and fundraiser for Rep. Dan Goldman for readers of Today’s Edition Newsletter on Thursday, August 1 at 5:00 p.m. Pacific, 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Given the huge turnouts for Kamala Harris this week on Zoom, sign-ups for this event have been a bit slow. As with other fundraisers sponsored by Today’s Edition, this is intended to be “small donor” event that allows people to get to know Dan Goldman. Donations start at $25 and up from there.
Rep. Dan Goldman is a great guy and a terrific candidate who will be a leader of the House one day. He first came to the public’s attention as lead counsel for the House committee conducting Donald Trump's first impeachment inquiry. His masterful examination of witnesses was a thing of beauty! He was subsequently elected to represent NY-10 in the House and has been a frequent guest on MSNBC, where he delivers superb commentary and finely crafted talking points for the Democratic Party.
Join me as I talk with Rep. Dan Goldman of NY-10. Sign up here: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ev_08.01.24
Join a national Zoom call to pass Amendment 4 (abortion rights) in Florida
On Wednesday, July 31 at 5:30 p.m. ET Floridians for Protecting Freedom, led by Lauren Brenzell, will present a Zoom to get out the vote for Amendment 4 in Florida. Lauren will be joined by Dr. Cherise Felix, a current OB GYN in practice in Florida.
Please join us for this important virtual event on July 31 at 5:30 ET to hear the inside story from the chair of the campaign to restore abortion care. The repercussions of not passing this amendment would be horrendous. We can do this – but we need your help to get out the vote and educate the electorate about the opposition’s disinformation. Registration and/or contribution link below. https://secure.everyaction.com/oWZE7Z7waEqbUeaAoFJqKA2
Concluding Thoughts
We need to turn the enthusiasm for Kamala Harris into a landslide victory. Doing so will help Democrats in several ways.
First, Republicans enjoy an inherent advantage in the Electoral College. A race in which Kamala Harris wins the popular vote by 1% likely means a Trump victory in the Electoral College. We should be shooting for a margin of victory of 3% plus!
Every vote matters; every low-engagement voter who shows up in 2024 matters; every new voter who registers and votes for the first time matters. Turnout matters. We must convert the enthusiasm for Kamala Harris into real work on the ground to turn out the vote. So, if you attended a call this week, take the next step and show up at a GOTV event!
Second, a large margin of victory makes it more difficult for Trump to attempt to disrupt the certification and count of electoral ballots.
Third, a big turnout for Kamala will help Democrats in House, Senate, and state legislatures win their races. That will allow President Harris to pass meaningful legislation to help the American people—including legislation to reform the Supreme Court and enact nationwide protections for reproductive liberty. It doesn’t get any better than that!
We must turn enthusiasm into votes. We can do that!
Talk to you tomorrow.
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The Eastern Veil Nebula is a remnant of a supernova that exploded in the last 20,000 years. The supernova would have been visible during the daytime. Taken in Los Angeles, CA on 7/30/24 with a 60-minute exposure using a hydrogen-alpha filter.
As was pointed out on Chris Hayes' show tonight, Biden would have a much better chance of actually seeing his proposed court reforms happen if the number of justices on the court was expanded first. Not doing so means that the inevitable challenges to those items, were they passed, would go to the Supreme Court where three members of the conservative majority are the people the reforms are aimed at - if anyone thinks they would say "yeah, that's all constitutional" please tell me how it is you still believe in Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy. Biden is too much of an institutionalist to ever admit that a radical situation with a radical problem requires a radical solution. (That's not a diss of Joe, it's a recognition of how the man proceeds)
IMO for the average person, Joe the Plumber, Project 2025 is an abstraction ( as is democracy, fascism, authoritarianism, etc. ) just more talking about stuff to scare people and they don’t get scared cause it doesn’t hit them in a scary way.
I suggest saying the scary stuff it in a very simple way.
THE GOP HAS PLANS TO RUN YOUR LIFE. ASK ABOUT IT.
THE ONLY WAY TO STOP THEM IS TO VOTE BLUE.
and while your talking to people remind them that when Melania had a baby Donald had sex with Stormy D and then paid $130,000 and committed 34 felonies to hide it from the voters because he knew women voters won’t stand for that. That hasn’t changed. It’s important to remind voters of this.