Chaos
December 19, 2024
On Wednesday, Elon Musk instructed congressional Republicans to walk away from a bipartisan agreement to fund government operations through March 2025. Congressional Republicans dutifully obeyed Musk even though he hasn’t a clue about the consequences of his actions. Musk ordered Republicans not to pass “any bill” until Trump is sworn in on January 20, 2025. If Republicans follow Musk’s command, there will be no government funding for a month (at least)--from Friday, December 20, 2024, through Monday, January 20, 2025.
If that happens, chaos will ensue.
The urge to pick a newsletter headline of “President Musk” or “The Musk Administration” was strong. But, in truth, Musk is not in charge; he is an agent provocateur of chaos. Musk lobbed a political hand grenade into the GOP congressional caucus and ran in the opposite direction.
There is much to unpack in today’s events, which will dominate the headlines for days (if not weeks). So, let’s examine today’s events to understand the chaos that Musk has inflicted on the GOP and the American people.
How the budget process is supposed to work.
There is a rhythm to the federal budgeting process that is more honored in the breach than in the observance. Understanding that rhythm is key to understanding just how disruptive Musk’s order to Republicans will be.
Congress has the “power of the purse.” “Section 9 of Article I states that funds may be drawn from the Treasury only pursuant to appropriations made by law.” See Congressional Research Service, Introduction to the Federal Budget Process.
The Budget and Accounting Act of 1921 requires the President to gather requests from agencies for funding, which are then collated into a consolidated request for funds that is submitted to Congress. The President is required to submit the consolidated funding request at the beginning of the calendar year. President Biden submitted the FY 24-25 request in March 2024.
The federal fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. In a perfect world, the budget would be passed by Congress before the beginning of the fiscal year (i.e., October 1).
Taken together, the above deadlines drive the schedule set forth below:
For clarity, the “bipartisan” funding bill killed by Elon Musk on Wednesday was the bill for the fiscal year October 2024 through September 2025.
Continuing resolutions—a patchwork remedy when Congress fails to pass a budget
In reality, Congress rarely passes a budget “on time” to begin the new fiscal year (Oct – Sep). To keep the government running in the absence of a budget, Congress passes a “continuing resolution” that funds agencies at the funding levels of the prior fiscal year.
As of 2022, the federal government had operated under continuing resolutions for all but 3 of the last 46 years. See General Accounting Office, Federal Budget: Strategies to Manage Constraints of Continuing Resolutions
The current continuing resolution expires this Friday, December 20, at midnight.
What happened on Wednesday
On Wednesday, Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries announced they had negotiated a continuing resolution that would have funded government operations until March 14, 2025.
The GOP House caucus is a fractious majority that has failed to pass budgets or continuing resolutions on their own at any point in the 118th Congress. So, Speaker Mike Johnson has relied on majority support from Democrats to pass continuing resolutions and budgets during the 118th Congress.
Because Mike Johnson needed help from Democrats to pass the bill, Democrats were able to include new spending in the continuing resolution for the following items (per CBS News)
Disaster relief “$110.4 billion in disaster aid: $29 billion for FEMA's disaster relief fund; $8 billion for federal highways and roads; $12 billion for the Community Development Block grants and disaster relief.”
Baltimore Bridge Rebuilding
Health care policy extenders and reforms
Transparency in ticket and hotel prices
Transfer of ownership of RFK Stadium to the District of Columbia
As usual, some member of the GOP House caucus objected to the continuing resolution, but passage seemed assured because Jakeem Jeffries promised to deliver sufficient Democratic support.
Elon Musk tweets, “This bill should not pass.”
On Wednesday, Elon Musk tweeted that “This [bill] should not pass” and that “no bill” should pass until Trump is inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Musk also tweeted that
Any member of the House or Senate who votes for this outrageous spending bill deserves to be voted out in 2 years
It is not clear whether Elon Musk understands that the bill he killed was designed to keep the government open until March of 2025. In tweets throughout the day, Musk betrayed a shocking but unsurprising ignorance of the federal budget process or the consequences of the federal government not having money to operate. See Politico, Elon Musk fueled backlash to spending plan with false and misleading claims.
Per Politico,
Musk didn’t seem to think a government shutdown would have significant consequences for the country. He responded “YES” to a post that read, “Just close down the govt until January 20th. Defund everything. We will be fine for 33 days.” Another Musk post said a shutdown “doesn’t actually shut down critical function.
While it is true that some “critical functions” will continue during a shutdown, many critical government employees—like US military members—will not be paid even though they are expected to remain on duty. About 800,000 workers went without pay for a month during the last shutdown (2018). Although Musk could survive without a bi-weekly paycheck for a month, millions of Americans could not.
Trump reacts, rather than leads
Trump remained on the sidelines of the budget debate until after Musk tweeted “This bill should not pass.” Trump posted a statement that “Any Republican that would be so stupid as to do this should, and will, be Primaried.”
But then Trump threw a curveball. He also posted, “Unless the Democrats terminate or substantially extend the Debt Ceiling now, I will fight 'till the end.”
Increasing the debt ceiling is something that does not need to be done until June of 2025. But Trump doesn’t want a debt ceiling increase to happen on his watch. We know this because Trump said so in a post on Truth Social:
If Republicans try to pass a clean Continuing Resolution without all of the Democrat ‘bells and whistles’ that will be so destructive to our Country, all it will do, after January 20th, is bring the mess of the Debt Limit into the Trump Administration, rather than allowing it to take place in the Biden Administration,”
The reason that Trump wants to force a debt limit increase under Biden is that Trump needs a debt limit increase to pay for the proposed extensions of his 2017 tax cuts for millionaires and corporations. See The Hill, Lawmakers caught off guard by Trump debt ceiling demand.
Per The Hill,
And in a post on X, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) accused Trump of wanting Democrats “to agree to raise the debt ceiling so he can pass his massive corporate and billionaire tax cut without a problem.”
“Shorter version: tax cut for billionaires or the government shuts down for Christmas,” he added.
The fallout
Trump looks like he is subordinate to Elon Musk.
JD Vance has been “disappeared.”
Musk has—for now—seized momentum from Trump as the dominant political force in the second Trump administration.
It is difficult to see how Mike Johnson survives as Speaker—or why he would want to. Johnson has been humiliated and back-stabbed by Trump and Musk. Mike Johnson’s credibility with his own caucus and Democratic counterparts is non-existent. It is a waste of time to negotiate with Johnson.
The chaos caused by Musk foreshadows a second Trump administration with unelected, unaccountable billionaires mucking about in the people’s business. What could go wrong?
House Ethics Committee votes to release report on Matt Gaetz
In a surprise move, the House Ethics Committee voted to release its investigative report on Matt Gaetz. See HuffPo, House Panel Voted To Release Matt Gaetz Ethics Report.
Gaetz denies any wrongdoing. He posted a statement on Thursday, saying
In my single days, I often sent funds to women I dated — even some I never dated but who asked,” he wrote. “I NEVER had sexual contact with someone under 18. Any claim that I have would be destroyed in court — which is why no such claim was ever made in court.
In a truly bizarre development, Gaetz says that he may take the oath to serve in the 119th Congress. Although he resigned from the 118th Congress and stated his intention not to serve in the 119th Congress, his statement of intention is not the same thing as a resignation. See Mediate, Matt Gaetz Floats Vengeful Plan to Rejoin Congress
If Gaetz is sworn into the 119th Congress on January 3, 2025, he says he will make a privileged motion to release the files on every member of the House who has paid money to keep confidential claims of sexual harassment confidential.
Gaetz posted his plan on Twitter, quoted below:
1. Show up 1/3/2025 to Congress
2. Participate in Speaker election (I was elected to the 119th Congress, after all…)
3. Take the oath
4. File a privileged motion to expose every “me too” settlement paid using public funds (even of former members)
5. Resign and start my @OANN program at 9pm EST on January 6, 2025.
Gaetz’s presence would complicate the election of a new Speaker because his presence will raise the threshold for a majority and he will likely vote against Mike Johnson. And if he plans to resign immediately after the election of a Speaker, he will narrow the margin of Republican control in the House.
Scientific Journal retracts study on alleged effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine
Under pressure from Trump and right-wing conspiracy theorist, the FDA issued an “emergency use” authorization of hydroxychloroquine for patient hospitalized with Covid. The FDA emergency use authorization occurred in the same month that a French scientific journal, the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, published a study that purported to show that hydroxychloroquine was effective in treating Covid.
The International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents has now withdrawn the report based on irregularities in methodology and conclusions. In addition, three authors associated with the paper asked to have their names removed from the research. See The Guardian, Journal retracts study that promoted hydroxychloroquine as Covid treatment | Coronavirus.
Per the Guardian, the French Society of Pharmacology and Therapeutics issued a statement about the study, saying that it
constitutes a clear example of scientific misconduct, marked by data manipulation and bias in the interpretation of results, aimed at falsely presenting hydroxychloroquine as effective . . . .
This highly controversial study was the cornerstone of a global scandal. The promotion of its results led to the overprescription of hydroxychloroquine to millions of patients, resulting in unnecessary risk-taking for millions of people and potentially thousands of avoidable deaths . . . .
The retraction serves as an important reminder of the role that disinformation played in the Trump administration's botched response to the Covid pandemic. The Bird Flu-- H5N1—has infected over 600 dairy herds across the US. Approximately 61 cases of human infections have been reported, although almost all were animal-to-human transmissions (rather than human-to-human). See Business Insider, Bird Flu Outbreak Explained: CA Declares State of Emergency.
The FDA has recalled raw cow’s milk because H5N1 virus was found in the milk. See CNET How to Stay Safe Now That More Raw Milk Has Been Recalled Due to Bird Flu.
Robert Kennedy Jr has asked a raw-milk producer to serve as an adviser to the FDA on distribution of raw milk. That raw milk producer has been the subject of 13 recalls of milk produced on his farm. See The Telegraph, RFK Jr asks beleaguered farmer to apply for a new job... as FDA’s raw milk adviser.
Concluding Thoughts
The next several days will be a wild ride. Congress has two days to avert a shutdown—while meeting the new condition of raising the debt, which was injected by Trump on Wednesday.
In the normal course, the congressional caucuses would agree to an extension of a week or two to push the crisis beyond the holiday break. But it does not seem likely given Trump's promise to mount a primary challenge to any GOP member of Congress who votes for a continuing resolution that does not include a provision to raise the debt limit.
The ability of Musk to sow chaos in a Trump administration that promised to be chaotic without the boy billionaire lobbing political hand grenades is concerning. Readers have expressed new waves of anxiety and feelings of helplessness.
I get it. But we are in the “performative” stage of Elon Musk’s pseudo-presidency. The imaginary world of the Twitterverse will collide with the jobs and paychecks of millions of Americans on Friday evening. Not getting a year-end paycheck because a billionaire hasn’t a clue about how the government runs will lead to waves of anger and condemnation—directed toward Trump.
We shouldn’t assume that the temporary chaos that Musk caused today is a strong indicator of his tenure or effectiveness as an provocateur-in-chief in the Trump administration. So, let’s reserve judgment before we panic over Musk’s ability to intervene in the people’s business.
The best advice I can give to readers who are experiencing renewed rounds of anxiety and concern is this: All we need to do is outlast Trump. We can do that it. If we refuse to give up over the next four years, we will win. I believe we can do much more than that in 2026 and 2028. But as we head into a holiday week, I will pause on these words:
Endure.
Abide.
Do not lose faith or hope.
Four years from now, Trump will be gone. We will face new challenges, to be sure. But let’s fight one battle at a time.
And a word of restraint to every reader who is itching to write in the Comment section, “What makes you so sure that Trump will leave office” or “There won’t be any more elections,” I urge you not to give voice to dark fears that are not likely to materialize. If you repeat such warnings in response to every hopeful rallying cry, you unwittingly normalize the notion that Trump can stay past his expiration date. That is exactly what he wants you to do. Don’t help him out. Instead, direct your energy into ensuring that Democrats are as successful as possible in 2026 and 2028.
Talk to you tomorrow.
Daily Dose of Perspective
On Wednesday evening, I pointed my telescope at the North America Nebula, which is about three times larger than the field of view of my telescope. So, the image below shows only about one-third of the nebula. While almost everything in deep space is interesting, I chose a section of the nebula that is relatively unremarkable. Ah, well! Next time I will focus on the edges of the nebula—which is where the interstellar action is!
The North America Nebula is 2,600 light years from Earth with a radius of 45 light years.
Our moon is 30 arcminutes (apparent size) vs 120 arcminutes (apparent size) for the North America Nebula.
Simply gobsmacking. I have succeeded in avoiding the news for today, until I read this issue. smh. They say there is no FELON without ELON and so far it seems to be true, but the chaos ... staggering.
I still remember the month in 2018, where a local Valero gas station owner gave away gas free at his station for any government employee who had no paycheck - I still go there for gas even though it's slightly out of my way and more expensive than the nearest gas station to me.
Here's an interesting strategy: Publicly embarrass Trump about Musk. Call Musk the real President-elect; the richer & smarter one, the one people really want to talk to, etc. Trump will HATE it and essentially 'fire' Musk.