Biden’s unity agenda.

March 2, 2022

[Audio version here]

          President Joe Biden gave a stirring speech on Tuesday evening in which he told the American people that the state of the union is strong because “you the American people are strong.” He warned Vladimir Putin that his foolish quest to defeat the Ukrainian people would fail. He announced that Russian planes would be excluded from American airspace, delivering another blow to the Russian economy. He vowed to hold Russian oligarchs accountable for their corruption. And he touted the renewed unity among NATO, the E.U., and non-aligned states like Switzerland.

          On domestic issues, Biden called for healthcare reform, tax reform, and a renewed effort to control the coronavirus. He announced new business investments in America. Biden called for passage of the Freedom to Vote Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. He defended the right to choose and called for legislation to protect LGBTQ people. Biden called on the Senate to quickly confirm Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson.

          But most importantly, Biden called for unity and reconciliation among Americans. He announced a “unity agenda” focused on defeating the opioid crisis, treating mental illness, supporting veterans, and ending cancer.

          To their credit, the Republican members of Congress applauded and gave standing ovations to Biden on several occasions, including his remarks on Putin, veterans, the opioid crisis, and immigration reform. Only once did they boo—when Biden criticized Trump’s tax cut for millionaires and billionaires. Otherwise, it was a moment of respite from the divisions that afflict America. As Jennifer Rubin wrote in WaPo, “It was a solid speech, more bipartisan than one could have imagined.”

          It was a good night for Joe Biden and the American people. Let’s hope that the state of the union speech allows Americans to move towards unity and reconciliation.

Putin’s war against Ukraine.

          As Biden spoke in the “temple of democracy,” Putin was busy killing innocent civilians and destroying homes. The Ukrainian people continue to mount an inspiring defense against tactics designed to terrorize civilian populations. But as Putin ratchets up the savagery of his attacks, signs of trouble are emerging on many fronts. The following list is not exhaustive and may reflect disinformation efforts on both sides of the conflict, but the news is not good for Putin. Whatever else happens, it is clear that Putin’s iron grip over Russia will be a casualty of the war.

          Morale among Russian troops appears to be very low. A U.S. defense official said that Russian troops are surrendering without a fight. See Business Insider, Some Russian troops are surrendering to Ukrainian forces without a fight as morale drops. Many Russian troops are young conscripts who did not understand they were heading into combat. Food rations and fuel are low. Worse (for Putin), some Russian troops appear to be “deliberately punching holes in their own gas tanks” to avoid fighting. The much-anticipated “40-mile-long” convoy heading to Kyiv may have stalled (temporarily) because of the morale, fuel, and sabotage problems.

          Then there is the mystery of the missing Russian air force. Russia has massive air superiority but has failed to take control of the skies over Ukraine. See U.S. News, What Happened to Russia’s Air Force? U.S. Officials, Experts Stumped. Russia appears to be wary of losing aircraft to surface-to-air rockets supplied by the U.S. Moreover, it seems that Russia miscalculated the difficulty of providing air cover for a multi-pronged attack on Ukraine.

          And Russia is struggling in the information war as well. Russia removed a popular Russian radio station from the air for violating the Kremlin’s propaganda guidelines for reporting on the war. See A.P. News, Russian radio station taken off air over Ukraine coverage. But enterprising netizens found a way to publish anti-war statements despite Kremlin media control. Moscow’s elite restaurants are being inundated with five-star Google reviews that contain anti-war messages. See The Daily Beast, Elite Moscow Restaurants Bombarded With 5-Star Anti-War ‘Reviews’ Protesting War in Ukraine. The “reviews” included the following statements to potential diners:

          5,800 Russian Soldiers died today, 4,500 yesterday. Stop your aggression, don’t let your kids suffer, if you go to war, you will not come back . . . . your government is lying to you. Russia has declared war on Ukraine and your young soldiers are confused and dying. The entire world is watching. Please stop the war.

          In addition to the punishing economic sanctions against Russia, the Swiss operator of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline filed for bankruptcy and fired all of its employees. Although the operator is a Swiss corporation, the example will not be lost on potential future investors in Russia: If you do business with dictators, your investment exists—or vanishes—at the whim of the dictator. See Axios, Operator of Nord Stream 2 files for bankruptcy and fires all employees. It may take decades for Russia to rebuild international trust so that it can once again attract capital investment from foreign investors.

          None of these developments may be sufficient to prevent temporary military victory for Putin in Ukraine. But they make clear that Putin will lose regardless of whether he wins in the short term.

Don’t let Republicans revise Trump’s sordid history with Ukraine.

          A meme circulating in right-wing media asserts that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump were still president. Not so. Trump single-handedly undermined Ukraine’s standing against Russia. See op-ed by Greg Sargent in WaPo, Five vile things Trump did to Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine that you forgot about. As a refresher, Trump

• Claimed that Ukraine, not Russia, interfered in the 2016 election;

• Ousted the well-regarded Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch;

• Froze $400 million in military assistance to Ukraine;

• Refused to grant Zelenskyy a meeting at the White House; and

• Put Rudy Giuliani in charge of U.S. relations with Ukraine.

          Trump weakened Ukraine in the eyes of Russia at the very moment that Putin was planning his deadly invasion of Ukraine. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

Those pesky polls.

          Yesterday, I recommended that readers ignore the polls. Some of you admitted in emailed responses that it is an impossible task. Understandably so when news anchors conclude almost every story with the tagline, “And how will this affect President Biden’s sagging poll numbers?” Before addressing Biden’s low favorability ratings, let’s acknowledge that the media is engaged in a massive double-standard. Mainstream media gives a “pass” to insurrectionists and coup-plotters by welcoming them on their programs to rant about Biden’s alleged “failure” to act aggressively in defending Ukraine. Not a single anchor follows those GOP rants with, “And where was your concern for democracy when you voted to overturn the election and refused to support an investigation into the violent insurrection?”

          As to the low favorability ratings, no amount of worrying or doomsaying will help rectify the problem. If we were a football team behind by 14-points at halftime, what would you say to your team? “Give up?” “Let’s dwell on the fact that we are behind?” “The game is unfair because the referees are biased, and the other team is cheating?”

          None of those responses would be helpful in a locker room at halftime, and none are helpful in our present circumstances. A better response is to redouble our efforts by registering new voters and motivating existing voters to show up. If we do that, we can overcome the current polling doldrums.

          Let’s also acknowledge that polls ask respondents to compare Biden in isolation to events over which he has little control: The pandemic, inflation, global shortages of computer chips, and the mental deterioration of a dictator in the Kremlin. But when Democrats run for office in 2022 and 2024, they will face flesh and blood opponents who must articulate a competing version for governing a divided America. That will be a difficult task for Republicans.

          As I mentioned last week, the GOP has no platform for 2022, so Senator Rick Scott took it upon himself to create one. It was a disaster. It was so bad that Mitch McConnell trashed it on Tuesday. When a reporter asked McConnell to comment on Scott’s vision for the GOP in 2022, McConnell said the following:

          If we are fortunate enough to have the majority next year, I’ll be the majority leader. . . . let me tell you what would not be a part of our agenda: We will not have as part of our agenda a bill that raises taxes on half of the American people and sunsets Social Security and Medicare within five years. That will not be part of the Republican Senate majority agenda.”

          So, Biden’s ratings may be low in isolation, but at least Chuck Schumer hasn’t publicly trashed Biden’s agenda for 2022. And you will note that as McConnell distanced himself from Scott’s ridiculous proposals, he did not bother to say what the GOP plan will be if Republicans “are fortunate enough to have a majority next year.” They have no agenda. Let’s not panic about Biden’s ratings. The relevant question for 2022 about Biden’s favorability ratings is, “Compared to what?” On that metric, Democrats have every reason to be hopeful—but no reason to be complacent.

Concluding thoughts.

          Two Republican members of the House (Gosar and Greene) appeared at a convention of white nationalists in Florida over the weekend. After two days of silence, GOP Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told a reporter that the appearances at the convention were unacceptable. But when McCarthy was asked on camera to comment on Gosar and Green’s appearance at the convention, Kevin McCarthy could not find the courage to make a public comment. See The Hill, GOP leader won’t condemn Greene, Gosar with cameras rolling. Per the Hill,

there’s little appetite among GOP leaders to take on the far-right wing of the party, even those who dabble in race-based extremism.

          So, not only do Republicans not have a platform for 2022, they can’t find the courage to condemn members of their caucus who praise Putin and white supremacists. Of course, the reason Kevin McCarthy refuses to condemn Gosar and Greene is that there is no difference between their hatemongering and that of Donald Trump. Yes, Democrats have challenges. But at least Democrats have a positive agenda for America and will not spend the 2022 campaign explaining why their party leader praises a war criminal and defends white supremacists. As I said, ignore the polls. Take all your nervous energy and channel it into voter registration and turnout.

          Talk to you tomorrow!