Biden’s information war.

February 14, 2022

[No audio version for this newsletter; the podcast server is down.]

          As Russia masses troops on the Ukrainian border, the U.S. has issued a series of warnings that invasion is imminent. The latest such warning took place over the weekend when NSA Director Jake Sullivan said, “[W]e are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time, should Vladimir Putin decide to order it.” The U.S. has also repeatedly warned that Russia may stage a “false flag” operation in the form of a fake Ukrainian attack on ethnic Russians to generate a pretext for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

          As the U.S. issues dire warnings of an imminent invasion, Ukraine continues to insist that the U.S. is overstating the threat. What gives?

          As reported widely in the press, Biden is engaging the Russians in information warfare. Putin has gained tremendous leverage by staging a massive buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border. In the weird world of information warfare, Biden’s continued insistence that Putin will order his forces to invade amounts to calling his bluff—which reduces Putin’s leverage the longer the troops sit in place. See, e.g., NYTimes, “U.S. Battles Putin by Disclosing His Next Possible Moves.” Per the Times,

In effect, the administration is warning the world of an urgent threat, not to make the case for a war but to try to prevent one. [¶] The hope is that disclosing Mr. Putin’s plans will disrupt them, perhaps delaying an invasion and buying more time for diplomacy, or even giving Mr. Putin a chance to reconsider the political, economic, and human costs of an invasion.

          Of course, Putin may be serious about invading Ukraine, and mere warnings from the U.S. will not stop the invasion. But if Putin does invade, the U.S. will have neutralized one of Russia’s favorite tactics—preparing the battlefield with disinformation. If everyone knows Russia will invade no matter what, the world will see Russia’s “false flag operation” in advance of invasion as the cynical pretext that it is. That should help unify the West’s response to Russia’s aggression.

          Biden’s strategy of releasing massive amounts of intelligence information is new and somewhat controversial. See Politico, Spy world wary as Biden team keeps leaking Russia intel. To be clear, the Biden team isn’t “leaking” information; it is announcing it from the White House press room podium. But as Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “The best antidote to disinformation is information.” Blinken’s statement is a universal truth.

          Although it may be difficult to determine whether the “information warfare strategy” will work in this instance, one thing is certain: Telling the world that Russia is a bad actor with malign intentions has a much better chance of succeeding than telling the world that the U.S. president trusts Putin over the U.S. intelligence community. Let’s remember this statement from July, 2018: ABC News, Trump casts doubt on U.S. intelligence, calls Putin’s meddling denial ‘strong and powerful’.

          So, although the Ukrainian situation is complex and may deteriorate quickly (or drag on for months), the U.S. is in a much stronger situation today because we have Joe Biden going toe-to-toe with Putin. See, MSN, Biden warns Putin US will react ‘decisively and impose swift and severe costs’ if Russia invades Ukraine.

Trucker blockade at U.S.-Canadian border.

          What started as a protest against vaccination requirements for truckers re-entering Canada has been overtaken by extremists who seem intent on destabilizing the Canadian government and disrupting trade between the U.S. and Canada. White supremacists have begun to infiltrate and hijack the protests. See Boston Globe, What’s going on across the border? The Canadian trucker protests, explained. The difficult situation was compounded by the slow response by local police, who seemed reluctant to arrest truckers who were blocking the border. Toyota and Ford have shut down operations at several U.S. plants because of parts shortages. Over the weekend, Canadian law enforcement finally cleared the blockade at the border. NPR, Ambassador Bridge protest: Police clear final demonstrators.

          Apart from the economic impact, why does this matter for the U.S.? Because U.S. truckers and extremists are planning similar protests in March with a convoy from California to D.C. The right-wing media reporting on the Canadian blockade is essentially urging U.S. truckers to engage in violence in March if police attempt to interfere in the U.S. protests. Charlie Sykes explains the situation in The Bulwark, Our Upside-Down Politics, where he writes:

And here is Sean Hannity, aghast at the idea that law enforcement might actually enforce the law. “If they dare send the military in or the cops or law enforcement in to arrest these guys, that’s on them. Whatever the result of that is will be on them.”

In other words, he would blame any violence on the members of the police and the military who would be doing their jobs — not on the protesters who were holding an international bridge hostage. This is perhaps not as surprising as it would once have been, given that, as Michael Gerson writes in the Wapo, “Support for seditious acts is now a normal and accepted element of Republican identity.”

          Sykes also notes that Kentucky Senator Rand Paul praised the blockade by saying that “civil disobedience has a long history in the U.S.” So, let’s consider the obvious thought experiment: If protesters from Black Lives Matter were blocking the U.S. Canadian border to protest the killings of unarmed Black men, would Rand Paul be supporting their right to engage in “civil disobedience”? Especially if, as is the case now, those protests were shutting down car manufacturing plants in his home state of Kentucky?

          The lesson of the Canadian border blockade is that the GOP no longer stands for “law and order”—or even for the rule of law. Instead, the GOP has become the single greatest threat to democracy in the U.S. today because it gives legitimacy and encouragement to white nationalists and white supremacists. Indeed, as Hannity and Rand were praising the blockage at the Canadian border, protesters in Ottawa were flying Confederate and neo-Nazi flags. Expect those same flags to fly alongside the truckers in the U.S. protest as well. In giving aid and comfort to extremists, the GOP will lose the support of Americans who still support democracy and rule of law.

Prosecutors in Missouri stop Republican effort to “make murder legal”

          I noted two weeks ago that Missouri Republicans had introduced a bill that would create a presumption that a killer acted reasonably if he claimed self-defense. Moreover, to hold the killer accountable, prosecutors would need to overcome that presumption by “clear and convincing evidence.” Prosecutors rose in unison against the proposed law, noting that it would effectively legalize (and encourage) murder in Missouri.

          Republicans introduced the bill in response to the conviction of the murderers of Ahmaud Arbery, who claimed they acted in self-defense when they hunted and killed an unarmed Black man who was jogging through a residential neighborhood. Fortunately, Republicans caved to opposition from prosecutors. See, MSN, ‘Make Murder Legal Act’: Bill changing Missouri self-defense law dies amid prosecutors’ opposition.

Giuliani in talks to appear before January 6th Committee

          Attorneys for Rudy Giuliani and the Select Committee are reportedly in talks about Giuliani appearing before the Committee. Don’t get too excited. Giuliani is a target of multiple criminal investigations. To avoid another prosecution (for contempt of Congress), he should appear before the Committee and invoke his 5th Amendment right against self-incrimination. Members of the Committee, including Adam Kinzinger, are telling the press that they “fully expect to hear” from Giuliani. Don’t overinterpret that comment. “Hearing” from Rudy may be listening to a single answer repeated hundreds of times: “On the advice of counsel, I invoke my right against self-incrimination . . . .”

Dan Rather on the Supreme Court.

          I have said it before: If you aren’t following Dan Rather on his blog / newsletter, Steady, you should be. Over the weekend, he addressed the Supreme Court’s recent spate of rulings that ignore long-established precedent. See Dan Rather and Elliot Kirschner, Precedent Be Damned. Rather examines at length issues that I have addressed in shorter snippets in this newsletter. If you are interested in the Supreme Court, I highly recommend Rather’s essay. To whet your appetite here is a preview of his argument:

Instead of reasoned argumentation we see snap judgements. Instead of deliberation we see grandstanding. Instead of humility we see a cocky disregard for precedent. The legitimacy of the Supreme Court is wavering – some might argue it has already been debased. . . . For what we are witnessing is not the law as much as it is transactional rhetoric without any pretense other than power.

Interview with New Faces of Democracy

          Over the weekend, I interviewed Nancy Bynum, founder of New Faces of Democracy. I wanted to provide a review in this newsletter, but the podcast server is offline as I write, so I can’t link to the podcast. I will write about the interview tomorrow!

Concluding Thoughts.

          Over the weekend, I received a note from a reader that is a good example of what many readers are saying. Holly writes,

 Am I the only one feeling like this? I feel worse now than I did when Trump was president. I guess when he was president, I had hope he wouldn’t be re-elected and life would get back to normal and eventually he would be held accountable for his crimes or, at the very least, never be heard from again. I find that him not being held accountable for anything, and the way GOP Senators blindly support anything he does so disheartening and depressing. 

          Holly’s feelings are understandable, rational, and widely shared. Three facts are driving these feelings: (a) Trump remains the leader of the GOP; (b) he continues to threaten democracy; and (c) he has yet to be charged with jaywalking much less insurrection. But, in truth, we are much better off today than we were during Trump’s tenure. First, let’s not forget that our current president is a decent, honest, and effective leader. Second, we no longer wake up every day fearing what Trump tweeted overnight. Third, Trump is not in charge of our military, nuclear arsenal, and foreign policy. Those are significant differences that, standing alone, should make us feel better every day.

          Trump may yet be held accountable for his crimes, so we shouldn’t give up hope. And the outcome of Trump’s criminal exposure should not determine our happiness or feelings of hope for the future. The greatest repudiation of Trump will be if he is a single-term president who ended his presidency in a failed coup. Let’s keep that as our prime objective. I agree that it would be better for the health of our democracy if Trump were charged for his crimes. Since prosecutorial decisions are out of our control, let’s focus on the things we can control.

          Finally, let’s not forget that governing is hard, and opposition is easier. We have mixed feelings of disappointment about the current state of affairs because we won in 2018 and 2020. It could have turned out otherwise. We achieved those victories against long odds, which should give us hope for 2022 and 2024. If we can win—or even achieve partial victories—in the upcoming election cycles, that may be enough to preserve democracy during the high-water mark of the GOP. We see signs that Trump’s grip on the party is fraying at the edges. So, let’s keep up the fight, despite our feelings of disappointment that Trump hasn’t been held accountable (yet).

          The advice that I would give Holly—and all of you—is that the antidote to despair is action. Seek greater engagement, more involvement, and deeper connection to community. And remember, it isn’t all on you. There are tens of millions of Americans who are devoted to preserving democracy. We are in this struggle together. We will win. It is only a matter of time.

          Talk to you tomorrow!

P.S. My Managing Editor / spouse reminded me to wish everyone a happy Valentine’s Day and recommend that you do something nice for someone who is not expecting it. Remember especially those who may be alone or suffering through the loss of loved one over the last year. My Managing Editor’s blog has a video of reader submissions regarding Valentine’s Day—something to lighten the mood during a tense time. See Everyday with Jill, Reader Valentine Displays!