Biden’s deft management of crisis in Middle East.

October 17, 2023

          There were small but significant developments on Monday in the effort to manage the humanitarian fallout from Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel. The developments reflect the strategy of the US to unequivocally support Israel while urging compliance with international law. They also reflect an extraordinary commitment by Israel to provide humanitarian assistance into a war zone only days after terrorists launched a devastating attack on Israel from that zone.

          Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been engaged in non-stop negotiations with his counterparts in Israel. Shortly after 3:00 AM local time in Israel on Tuesday, Secretary Blinken announced the following:

[T[he United States and Israel have agreed to develop a plan that will enable humanitarian aid from donor nations and multilateral organizations to reach civilians in Gaza – and them alone – including the possibility of creating areas to help keep civilians out of harm’s way.  It is critical that aid begin flowing into Gaza as soon as possible.

We share Israel’s concern that Hamas may seize or destroy aid entering Gaza or otherwise preventing it from reaching the people who need it.  If Hamas in any way blocks humanitarian assistance from reaching civilians, including by seizing the aid itself, we’ll be the first to condemn it and we will work to prevent it from happening again.

          Secretary Blinken also announced that President Biden will visit Israel on Wednesday. As reported by the Washington Post, President Biden delayed the announcement of his visit until the US “received commitments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a humanitarian package Monday night.”

          Although Blinken’s announcement was that the US and Israel “have agreed to develop a plan” for humanitarian aid, the Post is also reporting that the plan will be unveiled during President Biden’s visit.

          Biden will also meet with King Abdullah II of Jordan, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Biden spent time on Monday speaking with leaders from Germany and Iraq about the situation in the Middle East.

          Biden’s wartime visit to Israel is extraordinary. The visit will be a visible signal of the US commitment to Israel at a time when Israel is looking for support from a small handful of reluctant leaders in the region who understand the strategic need for peace. The US is Israel’s most important ally, and the visit by Biden will be reassuring to the Israeli people. See Times of Israel, Biden will make wartime visit to Israel on Wednesday, Blinken announces.

          But Biden’s visit will also give the US president the ability to look Prime Minister Netanyahu in the eye and remind him that although there are no conditions to US support of Israel, the US nonetheless expects Israel to avoid harm to civilians by complying with international law. 

          As Biden is seeking to prevent the spread of war, Iran is threatening imminent action against Israel if attacks on Gaza do not stop. See Al Jazeera, Iran warns Israel of regional escalation if Gaza ground offensive launched | Israel-Palestine conflict News.

          Finally, Hamas has allegedly offered to release non-Israeli hostages “when conditions allow” and said that it “has what it needs” to secure the release of Palestinians in Israeli prisons. See Reuters, Hamas seeks Palestinian prisoners' release, calls non-Israeli captives 'guests'.

          The Biden administration appears to be engaged in an intense effort to urge Israel to consider the consequences of attacking and holding Gaza. The US Bureau Chief of the Times of Israel posted the following:

The Biden administration has privately been pressing Israel in recent days to flush out what its strategy is for the day after it completes its stated goal of eradicating Hamas in the ongoing Gaza war, a US and an Israeli official . . . .

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle have indicated to their Biden counterparts that Israel has not yet come up with such a strategy and instead are more focused on the immediate goal of removing Hamas from power in Gaza, the US official says.

But the US official cautions against this approach, saying that devoid a strategy for who will control the Strip if and when Hamas is removed, IDF is more likely to get bogged down in Gaza indefinitely, despite Israel insisting that it does not want to re-occupy the enclave.

          The situation in Israel is fluid and volatile. But President Biden and his administration appear to be doing everything they can to urge restraint to prevent harm to civilians and the expansion of the war into a regional conflict. In a difficult first week-and-a-half of the conflict, Biden has been on point at every turn. We couldn’t ask for more.

          Sadly, the conflict is increasing instances of antisemitic and Islamophobic behavior in the US. The horrific stabbing of a six-year-old child and his mother in the Chicago area is heinous. The stabbing was motivated by the anti-Palestinian animus that is a staple of right-wing media. See CNN, Chicago-area stabbing: 6-year-old Palestinian-American boy who authorities say was fatally stabbed by his landlord was buried today.

          At the same time, reports of antisemitic incidents in the US have spiked 300% since the Hamas terror attack on Israel.

          Into this volatile mix steps Donald Trump with a can of gasoline. On Monday, Trump proposed restrictions on US immigration based on ideology, “targeting Hamas sympathizers and critics of Israel.” While the US should do everything in its power to exclude terrorists and their supporters, Trump went far beyond legitimate national security concerns, saying

[H]e would revoke student visas and deport anti-Israel demonstrators. He also pledged to expand his travel ban on people from Muslim-majority countries and refuse refugees. [Trump also promised to] implement strong ideological screening for all immigrants to the United States.

          Trump's effort to pander to and incite Islamophobic feelings in a volatile situation is abhorrent. Yet another reason we must do everything in our power to defeat Trump at the ballot box in 2024.

Judge Chutkan imposes a limited gag order on Trump.

          For the second time, a judge has imposed a limited gag order on Donald Trump. In the DC federal criminal case arising out of January 6, Judge Tanya Chutkan told Trump's lawyers she would issue an order preventing Trump from attacking the prosecutors, court personnel, and witnesses in the case. See The Hill, 5 takeaways as Trump faces gag order in election interference case.

          During the oral argument, Trump's attorney, John Lauro, made feeble efforts to defend Trump's use of terms like “thug” and “deranged” to refer to the prosecutor and Trump’s calls for the execution of Bill Barr and General Milley. But Lauro’s real strategy was revealed when he told Judge Chutkan that the entire issue over Trump's speech could be avoided if the judge would continue the trial until after the 2024 election.

          Judge Chutkan responded,

This trial will not yield to the election cycle, and we’re not revisiting the trial date.

          Good for Judge Chutkan! Although Trump will appeal her order, that appeal will not delay the trial. (A separate appeal on presidential immunity might do so, but that is a story for another day.)

          Here’s the point: Trump's legal strategy is delay and self-pardon. If Judge Chutkan can hold the trial in March 2024, there is a strong chance that Trump will be convicted before the 2024 election. Although the point of prosecuting Trump is NOT to interfere in the 2024 election, Trump should not be permitted to use his presidential run to obtain court rulings that he would not otherwise obtain.

House to vote for Speaker on Tuesday at Noon.

          A vote to elect a Speaker of the House (or not) is set for Tuesday, October 17, at Noon Eastern. Although the media has been filled with talk of Jordan’s “momentum,” the outcome is not certain as of Monday evening.

          According to a report on Sunday, GOP members opposed to Jordan’s candidacy will run a “protest vote” candidate. See Politico, Jordan to face a challenger in floor vote Tuesday. For a detailed report on the state of the race and the effort to mount a “centrist” challenge against Jordan, see The Hill, The shortest route to a bipartisan Speaker? A centrist Republican.

          If Republicans elect Jordan, it will be an insult to the American people, the House, and the Constitution. Evidence strongly suggests that Jordan was a participant in the attempted coup. But there is no doubt that he was a post-facto defender of the coup and refused to cooperate with the January 6 Committee.

          At least one commentator has raised the possibility that Jim Jordan may preside over the House when electoral ballots are counted after the 2024 election. That is unlikely for many reasons. First, Jordan’s “political half-life” as Speaker is about 60 days. But assuming he remains Speaker for the remainder of the 118th Congress, his term will expire on January 3, 2025, as provided by the 20th Amendment. Electoral ballots are counted on January 6.

          If Democrats regain control of the House in 2024, we should expect Hakeem Jeffries to be the next Speaker. But even if Democrats do not regain control, there will be a vote for Speaker on January 3, 2025. No one expects that Jim Jordan could be elected Speaker twice. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s see what happens on Tuesday.

Opportunities for reader engagement.

Swing Left San Gabriel Valley is holding a virtual training seminar on registering voters on Tuesday, October 16 at 5:00 PM – 6:00 PM Pacific Time.  Dale Roy Robinson of Field Team 6 will lead the training on the best ways to register voters. After Louisiana, everyone should be focused on turnout—and registering voters is the first step! Register here: Get Trained to Register Voters! · Swing Left | Swing Left

Force Multiplier is hosting a Zoom Fundraiser on Thursday, October 19^th at 7:00 PM Eastern for vulnerable House incumbents from Pennsylvania – Susan Wild (PA-07); Matt Cartwright (PA-08); and Chris Deluzio (PA-17). Pennsylvania is a Presidential, Senatorial, and House battleground state in 2024. Early support will help Reps. Wild, Deluzio, and Cartwright hold their seats in this hyper-competitive state. You can Register and Donate Here. 

California Indivisible chapters will be hosting Simon Rosenberg as he presents a hope-based outlook for the 2024 elections PLUS insights on key CA races,” on Tuesday, October 24 at 5:30 PM via Zoom. The signup link is here: HERE. If you have not had the opportunity to hear Simon Rosenberg’s outlook, you are missing a confidence-boosting, realistic look at the state of play in the 2024 elections!

Concluding Thoughts.

          I do not mean to sound like a broken record, but after six months of daily negativity regarding President Biden, it is gratifying to see Biden in command of the most difficult situation a president can face—a war in the Middle East. Although Israel is in charge of its war effort, it is undeniable that the United States is having a significant impact on rapidly unfolding events. That fact is due in large part to Biden’s deft management of the situation, his effective speeches and interviews supporting Israel, and his insistence on adherence to international law. Moreover, Biden is acting boldly by undertaking a wartime trip to Israel in advance of the invasion of Gaza—a moment when America can still affect the outcome for the better.

          The war in Israel is not about American politics. But at a moment when Republicans in general and Trump in particular are looking small, petty, and antidemocratic, Biden is acting in the best traditions of American presidents in times of crisis. For that, we should be grateful.

          Talk to you tomorrow!