Biden Wins New Hampshire Primary—Twice
January 24, 2024
Joe Biden was not on the New Hampshire primary ballot, but he was the first-place finisher in the Democratic primary thanks to a write-in campaign by grassroots volunteers. Democrats owe those volunteers a big “Thank You” for propelling Biden to victory on the Democratic ticket—creating momentum for Biden heading into South Carolina. And those volunteers also avoided the sensationalized media narrative of Joe Biden “losing” a primary where he did not appear on the ballot.
Joe Biden also won in New Hampshire because of the strong anti-Trump vote. Although Trump won the GOP primary, it appears that former president lost 45% of the GOP vote—and beat Haley by only 12 percentage points. Moreover, Nikki Haley won 61% of the independent vote. If Biden can convert a small percentage of the anti-Trump vote—or merely replicate Haley’s performance with independent voters—Biden will defeat Trump in the New Hampshire general election—as he did in 2020.
Haley’s concession speech was significant because she refused to withdraw from the GOP primary—a good result for Joe Biden. The longer that Haley and Trump attack one another, the more the American people will be reminded that both Trump and Haley are miserable candidates who promote policies opposed by most Americans.
Nikki Haley’s concession speech was also important (although insufferable) because she called out Trump's legal and cognitive challenges. She said that Trump cannot beat Joe Biden—an idea that is starting to gain traction among voters and the media. She also referred to Trump's “senior moments” that are becoming increasingly obvious to the media.
Haley’s willingness to discuss Trump's frequent mental lapses coincides with stories in major media that have finally—finally—begun to discuss the issue of Trump's mental fitness. See Washington Post, Trump’s increasing flubs risk blunting big polling edge on mental sharpness; Newsweek, Trump Has Another Gaffe While Defending Cognitive State; Fox News, Nikki Haley suggests Trump may not be ‘mentally fit’ to be president after he seems to confuse her with Pelosi.
The new scrutiny on Trump's mental fitness was confirmed by Trump's “victory” speech in New Hampshire that was . . . odd? Bizarre? Addled? Unhinged? All the above? Trump began by claiming—falsely—that he won the New Hampshire general election in 2016 and 2020. (In fact, Trump lost New Hampshire in 2016 and 2020.)
Trump then suggested that NH Governor Sununu was “on something” because he was so energetic on the campaign trail. After about four minutes of rambling commentary that failed to thank the volunteers or attract voters in the upcoming South Carolina primary, Trump turned over his victory speech to Vivek Ramaswamy because . . . why? Because Trump was unable to deliver a coherent victory speech?
Trump then re-took the stage and threatened both Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in classic mob-boss style:
And just a little note to Nikki, she’s not going to win. But if she did, she would be under investigation by those people in 15 minutes, and I could tell you five reasons why already. Not big reasons, little stuff she doesn’t want to talk about, that she will be under investigation within minutes, and so would Ron have been, but he decided to get out.
Chris Hayes of MSNBC described Trump's victory speech as “petulant incoherence. Hayes referred to nonsense statements by Trump on Monday where, in the middle of a campaign speech, Trump tried to criticize the Biden administration, saying.
Which is incapable of solvin’ even the sollest… smallest problem. The simplest of problems we can no longer solve. We are an institute in a powerful death penalty. We will put this on.
And in the same speech, Trump appeared to deliver teleprompter notes intended to give him cues on how to deliver his speech. Trump said,
Yes. Oh yes, and quickly says President Trump. We will be there very quickly.
So, on a night when Trump could have given a victory speech to create momentum heading into South Carolina, Trump effectively collapsed, unable to fill his national airtime with cogent, organized remarks. That does not bode well for Trump—and should give Democrats renewed confidence heading into November 2024.
While we cannot count on Republicans to defeat themselves, we should recognize the weaknesses and challenges they face—which are formidable, as the New Hampshire primary proves. As Simon Rosenberg frequently reminds us, all things considered, we would much rather be us than them.
Coda.
At the end of MSNBC’s coverage, Steve Kornacki gave a monologue that suggested there was “something different” about the 2024 election because “polls” have shown support for Trump that did not exist in 2020. While his description of the polls is partially true (he omitted those polls showing Biden leading), Kornacki failed to mention election results in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023—as if those actual results do not matter in the face of “polls” heading into 2024.
Kornacki focused only on “horse race” metrics and “unfavorable” ratings for both candidates. Kornacki did not mention Trump's declared intention to be a dictator, his attempted coup, the incitement to insurrection, or his vow to seek “revenge” in a second term. I realize that Steve Kornacki is an elections analyst, but he is also a human being, a journalist, and an American with a moral compass. It is unacceptable for Kornacki to omit any references to Trump's threat to democracy when providing commentary on the state of the 2024 presidential election.
Do better, Steve.
A comment about the Biden write-in victory.
It appears that Biden will win more than 70% of the Democratic vote in the New Hampshire primary—all on write in ballots. For a candidate who neither appeared on the ballot nor campaigned in the state, Biden’s showing is far stronger than Trump's.
It is difficult to overstate the importance of the grassroots volunteers who organized the win by Biden. A loss by Biden would have been a public relations disaster.
A reader, Lorna C, who was part of that grassroots effort posted a note in the Comments section about her experience. She wrote:
The media can really affect things. I was at a house party to organize Write In Biden volunteers. PBS News coverage referred to us in their broadcast as a “ragtag” group. I find that offensive. We were a large group. We also had two zoom calls to organize, attended by several hundred people, who in turn were charged with coordinating other groups.
The PBS reference to an organized grassroots effort as “ragtag” demonstrates the dismissive attitude that the media, many politicians, and (sadly) the Democratic Party has towards grassroots volunteers.
I responded to Lorna that,
The grassroots movement has literally saved democracy repeatedly over the last seven years, but a well-meaning journalist calls them "ragtag" because they are not high-paid lobbyists from K Street or talking-head consultants on major media outlets. When the history of this period is written, the efforts of your group and thousands of others will be recognized for their contribution to the preservation of democracy.
The full D.C. Circuit refuses to overturn Judge Chutkan’s gag order in the election interference case.
Judge Chutkan issued a gag order in the D.C. election interference case. Trump appealed and lost before a three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. Trump petitioned for the entire D.C. Circuit to review the decision of the three-judge panel. On Tuesday, the D.C. Circuit denied Trump's petition for review. No judge on the D.C. Circuit dissented from the denial. See ABC News, Appeals court denies Trump's request to review limited gag order in federal election interference case.
Trump can seek review in the Supreme Court, and probably will. The Supreme Court should deny review.
Speaking of three-judge panels in the D.C. Circuit, the decision on Trump's presidential immunity defense is overdue. Issuance of a ruling this week would be good! The three-judge panel heard oral argument on January 9, 2024.
More on the Supreme Court’s decision allowing the federal government to remove razor wire placed by Texas at the southern border.
I noted yesterday that the Supreme Court voted 5-4 to dissolve an injunction by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals that prevented the federal government from removing razor wire placed by Texas at the southern border. By a single vote, the Supreme Court agreed to uphold the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution.
Mark Joseph Stern of Slate has commented on an aspect of the decision that suggests Justice Kavanaugh is forming a permanent alliance with Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch. See Mark Joseph Stern in Slate, What’s going on with Brett Kavanaugh at the Supreme Court?
The four dissenting Justices went out of their way to make their dissenting votes public, but none of them bothered to tell the American people why they stood ready to ignore the Supremacy Clause. Stern writes of Kavanaugh’s refusal to explain his ruling,
In a sense, Kavanaugh’s silence makes his vote even worse: Having lodged a protest against the single most important principle governing the relationship between the federal government and the states, the justice kept mum, forcing us to guess why he voted in support of nullification.
Kavanaugh evidently felt that he owed us no explanation, no reasoning behind his desire to subvert executive authority in favor of a Confederate-flavored conception of state supremacy. His extremism was therefore compounded by an arrogant refusal to justify power with reason, an attitude fit more for a king than a judge.
Stern notes that if Kavanaugh is joining Alito, Gorsuch, and Thomas in an unholy alliance, that leaves Justice Barrett as the firewall between the Constitution and the Articles of Confederation. Stern writes,
It is encouraging that Barrett has stepped up as an unexpected voice of reason when Kavanaugh defects to the MAGA wing of the court. But Barrett herself is also very conservative, and certainly not a reliable vote for democracy.
If a principle as fundamental as federal supremacy can only squeak by on a 5–4 vote, no law is settled and everything is up for grabs. And that, of course, is exactly how Trump wants it.
Expand the Court! We cannot allow the fate of our constitutional democracy to rest in the hands of Amy Coney Barrett.
Opportunity for reader engagement.
BigTentUSA and The Bulwark hosts Sarah Longwell and James Carville
On Wednesday, January 24, 2024 at 7: 00 p.m. Eastern / 4:00 p.m. Pacific, BigTentUSA is pleased to host legendary political consultant James Carville and focus group guru and publisher of The Bulwark, Sarah Longwell, in conversation with award-winning journalist Katie Couric. They will parse the results of the New Hampshire primary and what we can learn about the mindset of voters. Carville and Longwell will also discuss messaging, campaigning, focus groups, and what lies ahead in 2024.
BigTentUSA is an inclusive and collaborative community empowering citizens to take action to protect democracy, defend women’s rights, and protect our children. Join our free educational series of events and our calls to action detailed and updated regularly on our website.
We hope to see you under the Tent with James Carville, Sarah Longwell, and Katie Couric on January 24th. Register via this link now!
Join Network Nova’s Friday Power Lunch
Readers are invited to join Network Nova’s Friday Power Lunch on Friday, January 26 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern / 9:00 a.m. Pacific.
You may be aware of the Network Nova hour-long "Friday Power Lunch" video podcast that is recorded live every week by northern VA activists, now celebrating its 150th episode. Starting on Jan. 26, and continuing on the last Friday of every month, Friday Power Lunch is going national with programming amplifying the voices of the grassroots from coast to coast.
The newly formed Grassroots Collaboration Project (GCP) will be featured on Friday’s Power Lunch this Friday, January 26. GCP will connect grassroots groups nationwide to collectively use our knowledge, experience, and organizing muscle to win in 2024.
The co-leads of GCP – Susan Labandibar (Swing Blue Alliance), Julie Greenberg (31st St. Swing Left), and Susan Wagner (Markers for Democracy) – will explain the purpose and vision of the GCP and then preview the new Grassroots Directory the GCP is building. Longtime activist and organizer Heather Booth will also join the program to share stories of how collaboration has historically been a game changer in social movements. When we collaborate, we WIN!
Register: Network NOVA's Friday Power Lunch Registration Form
Concluding Thoughts.
The initial media narrative on Tuesday evening is that Trump won, and Nikki Haley failed because she did not come within a single-digit of Trump's margin of victory. But with a few days’ reflection, it will become clearer that Trump turned in a weak performance for the second time in two weeks.
Trump was the one person who seemed to grasp that his performance was a problem. His meandering, defensive speech spent more time attacking Haley than celebrating his alleged victory. If Trump believed he scored a big victory on Tuesday evening, he would be the first to tell us. But he knows he underperformed and was unable to conceal his disappointment.
Joe Biden’s write-in victory is a major accomplishment that should provide hope and confidence to the tens of thousands of volunteers who are working for Biden’s victory in November. We should all feel good on Wednesday as we look forward to the next challenge.
Talk to you tomorrow!
Perhaps we would do well to maintain our reputation as being ragtag groups. If even PBS does not recognize our power, that means the Republicans are even farther from understanding the work we have done, are doing, and will do. Let’s keep it this way.
Yes, it is apparent that Trump’s “best” days are behind him. With the economy and Stock market booming it won’t take real conservatives long to realize he is a dead weight and a dangerous one if ,heaven forbid , he managed to win in ‘24. Destabilizing the world is a lose-lose. Biden looks better and better and better, tho I’ve always been a fan. On a lighter note, it’s worth 15 minutes each night to watch Steven Colbert’s opening monologue Mon- Fridays, free on you-tube. He has us laughing in tears as he sums up the GOP’s antics each day. It’s a great way to say goodnight after each loony day ahead. And BRAVO to the write-in heroes in NH!!!