As the immigration bill hangs in the balance, Biden has gone on offense against Trump— and Trump has gone on offense against the vital interests of the American people. The (mostly) spineless Republican caucus appears to be caving to Trump's bullying. Trump gleefully invited Americans to “Please blame it on me!” if the immigration bill fails. It is beginning to look like the American people will need to accept Trump's invitation.
The political landscape has shifted significantly over the last four weeks—all to Joe Biden’s benefit. The shift has occurred because the Biden campaign has aggressively messaged about Trump's faltering presence on the campaign trail and his growing menace to democracy. Oh, and the economy continues its strong performance. The media and the American people are noticing.
That said, Joe Biden needs our help in amplifying his message and rebutting the false narrative being promoted by MAGA extremists and a still-too-gullible press.
Let’s look at the interplay between the substance and politics.
The immigration bill hangs in the balance.
What’s happening.
The core group of Senators negotiating the immigration bill continues to work on the text of a final bill—cheered on by President Biden in speeches over the weekend. Senator Chris Murphy said the following:
We do have a bipartisan deal. We’re finishing the text right now. We are sort of finalizing the last pieces of text right now.
This bill could be ready to be on the floor of the United States Senate next week. But it won’t be if Republicans decide that they want to keep this issue unsettled for political purposes.
I was glad to hear the president come out and speak forcefully in favor of this bill. I’m hopeful that we will still have enough Republicans in the Senate who want to fix the problem at the border rather than just to do Donald Trump’s bidding, but we will see over the next 24 to 48 hours whether that’s true.
As many Republicans publicly announced their opposition to a bill that has yet to be released, at least one Republican Senator criticized his party for sacrificing the nation’s immigration policy to Trump's re-election bid. See Washington Post, Lankford defends bipartisan border security bill after attacks by Trump, GOP.
GOP Senator Lankford told an interviewer on Sunday that Republicans demanded immigration reform as a condition of funding Ukraine and Israel. Having extracted that quid-pro-quo from Democrats, Republicans said, “Just kidding.” In Lankford’s words:
So we actually locked arms together and said we’re not going to give you money for this. We want a change in law.
When we’re finally going to the end, they’re like, ‘Oh, just kidding. I actually don’t want a change in law because it’s a presidential election year.’
We all have an oath to the Constitution and we have a commitment to say we’re going to do whatever we can to be able to secure the border.
Republicans have viciously attacked Lankford (a member of their party) for having the audacity to perform his constitutional function against the wishes of defendant Trump. The Oklahoma Republican Party has “censured” Senator Lankford for “playing fast and loose with Democrats”—which is apparently how MAGA extremists view bipartisan negotiations. See The Hill, Oklahoma GOP votes to censure Lankford over Senate border talks.
What President Biden is doing.
Meanwhile, President Biden is leaning into the proposed bill in a big way. A proposed provision would allow the President to “shut down the border” if illegal crossings exceed 5,000 per day. In a written and video statement released on social media last Friday, President Biden said he was prepared to “close the border” immediately if Congress passed the proposed legislation.
And . . . just like that, progressive media outlets that had been repeating the GOP’s false narrative that Biden has allowed an “open border” began suggesting that Biden was “going too far” by saying he would close the border. (I am looking at you, Alex Wagner of MSNBC).
We need to support the President.
We cannot criticize Biden for everything he does. For months, Democrats and major media outlets have suggested that Biden might lose in 2024 because of the border. He has now called the GOP’s bluff by saying, “If you pass it, I will sign it and enforce it.”
We cannot turn on a dime and immediately criticize Biden for addressing the “border crisis” in a manner that is proportional to the perceived crisis created by MAGA extremists and a complicit press. If we do that, we are telling him he cannot defend himself—and America’s vital interests—over an issue that is critical to his re-election.
So, let’s support President Biden as he navigates through this difficult issue. He has plenty of people spotting issues and second-guessing every word he writes or utters on the subject. We need to support him in a full-throated manner for his consistent commitment to immigration reform.
Extra credit.
Here is a fun fact to pull out of your pocket next time someone says that Joe Biden is in favor of “open borders”: Guess what bill President Biden sent to Congress on the first day of his presidency? A bill to strengthen our border security and modernize our immigration system. Joe Biden has been trying to solve the border and immigration crisis since his first day in office. Let’s not let the press and our friends pretend otherwise. Instead, let’s support Biden and amplify his tremendous efforts to date.
No, there isn’t going to be a “civil war” over Governor Abbott’s refusal to obey a Supreme Court order.
What’s happening.
Governor Greg Abbot is disobeying an order of the Supreme Court by refusing to remove razor wire on fencing at some sections of the southern border in Texas. Abbott has released ludicrous statements saying that Texas is excused from recognizing orders of the Supreme Court because the state is under “invasion.”
Abbott is using Texas law enforcement and the Texas National Guard to defy the Supreme Court’s order. Media outlets are breathlessly describing the situation as a nascent civil war. It is not.
Abbott is lying about an “invasion” so that he can run for a fourth term as governor. The relevant section of the border that is subject to the order occupies about 2.5 miles of the 1,245 mile border shared by Texas and Mexico. Outside of the 2.5 contested miles, the Texas border is peaceful and secure.
I don’t mean to diminish the reprehensible nature of Abbott’s disobedience of the Court’s order. But Abbott isn’t the first state official to refuse (initially) to comply with a court order, and he won’t be the last. When state officials refuse to comply with court orders, they become civilly (and potentially criminally) liable for their actions. That is, they lose the immunity they normally enjoy as state officials who act within the law.
While it is difficult to foresee how this situation will resolve itself, it won’t involve armed confrontation, let alone a civil war. Nor will it involve federalizing Texas troops. Instead, it will play out in the courtroom—and will take a long time. For those hoping that Biden will “invade” Texas to put down Abbott’s disobedience, prepare to be disappointed. Biden is handling the situation with appropriate restraint and decorum, befitting a constitutional democracy.
What we should do.
Abbott’s performative cruelty is designed to create a media spectacle—and he is succeeding. Let’s not help him by repeating or amplifying wild talk about a civil war. It isn’t going happen. In the meantime, let’s amplify those media sources criticizing Abbott for refusing to abide by the Constitution See Newsweek, Greg Abbott Scolded by Largest Texas Newspaper for Defying Supreme Court.
According to Newsweek, the editorial board of the Houston Chronicle wrote,
The governor of a state that has maimed migrants with razor wire, deprived them of water in the summer and left to them to drown in the river is arguing self-defense.
He'll earn a place in the history books right next to Gov. George Wallace in the schoolhouse door, promising to block integration in defiance of the Supreme Court's ban on school segregation.
Gregg Abbott is earning a place alongside one of the most reviled segregationists in US history. Tell a friend.
Biden’s campaign continues to publicize Trump's missteps.
President Biden’s campaign has started to release real-time commentary on Trump's bizarre statements and mispronunciations. Over the weekend, Trump spoke in Nevada and the Biden campaign released video clips within minutes of the tape becoming available.
For example, Trump reminded voters in Nevada to show up at the polls on “Februarerth.” See Biden-Harris HQ on X: "A confused Trump tells his supporters to caucus on “Februarerth.”
Trump is clearly on the defensive about his mental decline. He increasingly discusses it on the campaign trail—which only reinforces that perception. For example, the Biden-Harris HQ Twitter account posted this from Trump's speech over the weekend,
Trump insists he’s not cognitively impaired because he took a test that included pictures of “a lion, a giraffe, a whale, and a shark” and could identify which one was a lion.
I am including the above snippets for readers who criticize Biden for “being too nice” or too passive. But more importantly, the strategy seems to be working. By bringing attention to Trump's miscues, the press has begun to flyspeck Trump's speeches. The media narrative is turning.
For example, two weeks ago, Saturday Night Live skewered Biden and Trump for being too old. Ha, ha—not funny! But this weekend, SNL mocked only Trump and made no mention of Biden. The SNL “news” segment is here: Saturday Night Live | January 27, 2024. (Watch the first 2:40 of the skit for the full references to Trump's increasing cognitive problems.) (A separate comment is included about Biden sending the CIA director to help negotiate for the release of hostages.)
Referencing an SNL comedy skit is not usually a serious way to gauge the political narrative. But here, it is relevant because it indicates the shift in the narrative—especially on a show watched by millions of young adults.
Here’s my point: The 2024 general election campaign has been underway for only four weeks. Trump is faring badly. The more people see him, the less they like him.
Opportunities for reader engagement.
Jessica Craven of Chop Wood Carry Water invites readers to the following event:
Come to a “Get Out the (Climate) Vote” party on January 30 at 7 pm ET.
Brett Walter of Climate Action Now has invited Nathaniel Stinnett of the Environmental Voter Project to speak at a Get Out the (Environmental) Vote Action Party on January 30 at 7 pm ET. The discussion will be moderated by Jessica Craven, author of the Chop Wood, Carry Water Substack.
These two organizations are going to be central to educating climate voters about the importance of this election AND giving them the info they need to vote. Hearing how they plan to do this—and how you can help—will inspire you, I promise.
So won’t you come? And send this invitation to everyone you know who cares about the climate crisis? This is NOT a fundraiser. It’s simply an opportunity to hear two very smart strategists talk about how we can win this year with climate as our guiding light.
The Eventbrite link is here. Hope a lot of you can make it.
And BigTentUSA invites you to an event with retired Judge Luttig and Michael Waldman (of the Brennan Center) to hear their views about Trump's disqualification under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment:
On Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 12pm ET/9 AM PT, Michael Waldman, President of the Brennan Center for Justice, and retired Judge J. Michael Luttig are joining BigTentUSA. Michael Waldman and Judge Luttig will analyze whether Donald Trump is ineligible for the presidency in accordance with Section 3 of the 14th Amendment and whether a US President has total immunity as Trump has argued in court, at his rallies and on social media.
BigTentUSA is a moderate, inclusive, and collaborative community empowering citizens to take action to protect democracy, defend women’s rights, and protect our children. Join our free educational series of events and our calls to action detailed and updated regularly on our website.
Register to join Michael Waldman and Judge Luttig under the Tent using this link.
Concluding Thoughts.
Three US troops were killed and many more were injured in Jordan in a weekend drone attack. My sympathies go to those killed and injured and to their families.
President Biden said that the US is still gathering facts but believes radical groups backed by Iran carried out the attacks. President Biden is receiving public pressure from GOP hawks to strike Iran directly—which would risk escalation of the Israel-Hamas war into a regional conflict. I don’t know what the right answer is. I do know that President Biden will listen to his advisors before making a fully informed decision.
Several readers have recommended this article by Brian Hassett, Why I Love Joe Biden - Brianland. This is a really good article that lists many of President Biden’s achievements in a way that expresses gratitude for everything Joe has done for the American people.
I won’t go on praising the article because your time is better spent reading the article than listening to me describe its contents. It is the best compilation of Biden’s accomplishments I have seen.
But the closing statement is the article is worth repeating:
It's not Republican voters who elect Republican politicians.
It’s Democratic voters who stay home that elect Republicans . . . .
Talk to you tomorrow!
The Brian Hassett article "Why I Love Joe Biden" is a really excellent summary of Biden's many accomplishments. Those who whine about Joe Biden being too old need to take a look and take a step back. If this resume crossed their desks anonymously, they'd be all over it and rightfully so. Oh but it's an 81 year old guy? Too old!! But Biden has been Presidenting very successfully. We still need him because of the former guy and his nasty incompetent sycophants. We need Biden's experience and competence. He is good because of, not in spite of, his age and many years of experience.
"It’s Democratic voters who stay home that elect Republicans . . . ."
I wish people understood that in our system, everyone actually votes, even the non-voters. Our constitutional, legal and social set up overweights a conservative rural minority. In addition, the lack of proportional representation leads to a strong two party system with winner take all. Therefore, not voting and voting third party or protest write in votes all support continuing the overweighted conservative rural minority. I suspect some people do recognize that and do protest voting/non-voting to try to avoid taking responsibility for the fact that they are supporting the conservative minority.