Biden steps up.

February 4, 2022

[Audio version here]

          Actions by President Biden dominated the news on Thursday as he demonstrated the power of the presidency in foreign affairs and domestic policy. Early Thursday morning, Biden announced that U.S. special forces had killed the leader of ISIS during a raid in Syria. Biden ordered an assault by ground forces rather than an airstrike to minimize civilian casualties. According to the President,

We made a choice to pursue a Special Forces raid, at a much greater risk to our own people, rather than targeting him with an airstrike. We made this choice to minimize civilian casualties.

          The ISIS leader detonated a bomb to avoid capture as U.S. forces entered the building where he was hiding. The ISIS leader killed himself and several others, possibly including a child. Pentagon leaders said that the U.S. evacuated eight children and two adults from the building before the ISIS leader detonated the bomb.

          The mission was a high-risk, high-reward undertaking that was planned for months. It represented an aggressive use of force designed to send a message about America’s military capabilities. Biden said in his remarks, “This operation is testament to America’s reach and capability to take out terrorist threats no matter where they try to hide anywhere in the world.” According to media reports, Biden was intimately involved in reviewing the proposed mission and approved special forces rather than airstrikes. In examining the details of the mission and taking responsibility for minimizing the possibility of civilian casualties, Biden acted in accordance with the highest traditions of the Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. military.

          Biden also acted aggressively in the high-stakes standoff with Russia over Ukraine. The U.S. has been claiming that an invasion by Russia is imminent, a claim that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky disputes. Russia says that its massive buildup of troops on the Ukrainian border is a pure coincidence having nothing to do with its plans to invade Ukraine. On Thursday, the U.S. decided to call Russia’s bluff and released an intelligence report that Russia is preparing a video showing a fake attack by Ukraine on Russian forces. Per CNN,

U.S. officials alleged Thursday that Russia has been preparing to “fabricate a pretext for an invasion” of Ukraine by creating “a very graphic propaganda video” that would depict a fake attack by Ukraine against Russia.

The U.S.’ disclosure of the alleged plot is the latest in a series of revelations designed to blunt the impact of any pretext Russia may use to invade Ukraine, and comes after U.S. officials warned that Moscow could use a false flag operation to justify such an invasion

          Russia used similar tactics in 2014 when it invaded the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine. Per PBS, in advance of the 2014 invasion, Russia used “state media and social media accounts linked to Russia to promote allegations [of] unconfirmed tales of lurid crimes committed by Ukrainian forces.”

          In releasing intelligence reports that Russia has prepared a “false flag” video of Ukrainian atrocities against Russians, Biden is risking the discovery of intelligence sources. But Biden has concluded that preventing an invasion of Ukraine is worth the risk. Again, Biden’s aggressive move demonstrates his willingness to stand up to Russia’s expansionism—precisely what we would expect from a U.S. president acting to protect U.S. global security.

          As Biden was dealing with two significant foreign policy matters, he traveled to NYC to meet with Mayor Eric Adams to discuss gun violence on the streets of New York. The trip occurred one day after the funeral for the second NYPD officer killed last month while responding to a 9-1-1- call. In advance of the trip, Biden penned an op-ed in the New York Daily News, President Biden writes on gun violence amid new U.S. anti-crime plan, announced during NYC visit. Biden said, in part,

The solution is not to defund our police, it’s to give them the tools, training and funding to be the partners and protectors our communities need. The answer is not to abandon our streets. It’s for police and the community to come together to make them safer through policing that treats everyone with dignity and respect. . . . That’s why I’ve called on Congress to pass a budget later this month that provides cities an additional $300 million for community policing. We need more police on the street, walking the beat and making communities safer.

          Biden is rightly attempting to re-frame the conversation about the intersection between policing, community safety, and excessive use of force by police against Black citizens. The phrase “Defund the Police” is widely perceived as a messaging failure that curtailed gains by Democrats in 2020 congressional contests. Biden instead framed the issue as involving police training to “treat everyone with dignity and respect.” Providing more funding to achieve those goals, not less, is a message that Democrats can defend in 2022. Good for Biden for wading into a difficult issue for Democrats and providing a path forward that protects communities while investing in training (not military weapons) for police.

More good news on redistricting.

          The Pennsylvania legislature and governor could not agree on a redistricting plan after being ordered to do so by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. So, with the primary season closing in, the Supreme Court has taken control of the redistricting process. See Talking Points Memo, Pennsylvania Supreme Court Takes Over Redistricting Due To Deadlock Over GOP-Drawn Map. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has a Democratic majority of 5-2, so it is unlikely the Court will back the map proposed by the GOP-controlled legislature. But don’t expect a partisan result in favor of Democrats, either. Prior decisions by the Court in redistricting challenges have produced maps generally agreed to be fair to all concerned.

Turnout trumps voter suppression.

          Several readers recommended an article in Sabato’s Crystal Ball by Alan I. Abramowitz, Why Voter Suppression Probably Won’t Work. The article looks at data that compares turnout in states that either implemented voter suppression tactics or increased ease of voting in the face of the pandemic. I recommend the article to your attention, especially if you have a background in science, statistics, or math (I do not). The takeaway is that neither suppressing nor encouraging voting in 2016 and 2020 had a statistically significant impact in most cases. Instead, turnout was the key driver in election success. Two practices positively affected turnout: Mailing ballots to voters (rather than applications for absentee ballots) and increasing the availability of dropboxes. But, after performing a “multiple regression analysis,” the author concludes that the effects were negligible. Instead, turnout overwhelmed suppression efforts. The author concludes,

The most important development regarding turnout in the 2020 election is that it increased everywhere and by a rather substantial amount.

          Democrats must drive that message home every opportunity they get. For a few months at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, Democrats allowed the media to weave a negative narrative that said Democrats could not overcome gerrymandering or voter suppression legislation in 2022. The analysis in Sabato’s Crystal Ball concludes otherwise and demonstrates that the only thing standing between Democrats and victory in 2022 is the hard work of motivating turnout. We can do that!

Concluding Thoughts.

          Efforts to shine a light on the details of the plan to overturn the 2020 election can make a difference. Rachel Maddow maintained a one-woman crusade to focus attention on the phony “alternative slates” of electors appointed by Republicans in six swing states. For months, no one seemed interested in the story. But as other media outlets slowly picked up the story, states attorneys general began making referrals to the DOJ, and the DOJ appears to have (finally) started investigating. While many journalists helped prompt that result, we owe Rachel Maddow a debt of gratitude for her perseverance.

          Maddow is now highlighting efforts by county sheriffs to seize voting machines in Michigan. The reports of those efforts first surfaced in 2021. See, e.g., an article dated July 2, 2021 in The Michigan Bridge, Emails: Michigan sheriff sought to seize voting machines amid Trump claims. The fact that Maddow is just now highlighting that story could be seen as an effort to re-hash old news. Not true. Maddow is connecting the dots between new revelations in the NYTimes with the earlier reports in The Bridge. The Times reported on Monday of this week that Trump personally directed pleas to DHS and DOJ to seize voting machines, and Maddow drew a line between the new revelations and the efforts by Michigan sheriffs to impound voting machines. With any luck, states attorneys general will make new referrals to the DOJ to investigate the actions of rogue sheriffs in Michigan.

          Here’s my point: I spend a lot of time criticizing the media for lazy reporting and unfair bias against Biden. But we should not overlook the fact that there are exceptions to the rule who demonstrate daily why the First Amendment is so important. Journalists like Maddow, Jennifer Rubin, Dahlia Lithwick, Eugene Robinson, Ezra Klein, Ian Milhiser, Josh Marshall, Philip Rotner, Rebecca Solnit, and Maggie Haberman, and commentators like Larry Tribe, Maya Wiley, Barbara McQuade, Jill Wine-Banks, and Joyce Vance, (to name only a few) are honoring the highest traditions of journalism and the First Amendment.

          During Trump’s tenure, the press played a vital role in defending democracy. They are being called upon once again to step into the breach. We should encourage and commend the efforts of those journalists holding accountable leaders past and present—even if those efforts sometimes cause discomfort for Democrats. The fact that we have an independent, unrestrained press is a promising sign for the continued health of our democracy.

          Talk to you on Monday!