Biden searches for a pathway to peace

May 7, 2024

President Biden’s efforts to facilitate a ceasefire in the Gaza war seemed to be on the brink of success on Monday, only to be frustrated by disagreements over the interpretation of the proposed terms. Although the failure of the latest proposal is disappointing, it illustrates the background efforts by the Biden administration to find a pathway to peace. The US has been pressuring Israel on three fronts: (a) to agree to a ceasefire, (b) to re-assess its plan to invade Rafah, and (c) to begin planning for the governance and rehabilitation of Gaza when peace arrives. But President Netanyahu has reportedly resisted all three pressure points from the US as inconsistent with his vow of “total victory” over Hamas. Nonetheless, the near-miss signals progress.

What happened on Monday? On Monday, Hamas conditionally accepted a peace proposal brokered by Egypt and Qatar (with an assist from the US). Israel first said it was studying deal, then appeared to reject it, and then sent a negotiating team to Cairo for additional talks. Israel has also continued airstrikes on Rafah in apparent preparations for a major ground operation in southern Gaza. For a summary of the halting progress towards peace, see NYTimes, Timeline of Recent Twists and Turns in Gaza Cease-fire Talks. (This article is accessible to all.)

What are the prospects for a ceasefire in the near future? It would be foolish to attempt an answer to that question. But the fact that Hamas publicly announced that it was accepting the terms of a cease fire is evidence that the dynamic has changed in a fundamental way. What that change is and whether it is meaningful will be clearer in the coming days, but the announcement represents a significant change in the position of one party to the conflict. Such changes do not occur spontaneously. The objective facts and reasonable inferences all point to the positive influence of US foreign policy and President Biden’s continued pressure. While no one is satisfied with the current situation, we should recognize Biden’s efforts to help bring about peace.

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Judge Merchan warns Trump that next violation of gag order will result in jail time

We are witnessing a long-overdue moment of truth between the rule of law and a lawless provocateur hell-bent on provoking a confrontation. Alternatively, we are about to witness a coward terrified by a night in jail strike his colors and run, finally conforming to legal and societal norms under threat of imprisonment.

It will be fascinating to see which outcome unfolds. True to form, Trump is claiming that he is spoiling for the confrontation and willing go to jail to protect the Constitution. See HuffPo, Trump Hints He's Willing To Violate Gag Order And Go To Jail | HuffPost Latest News But Trump says lots of things he doesn’t mean and cannot back up with actions. Remember his promises that “Mexico will pay for the wall” and “Next week is infrastructure week”?

The potential jailing of the former president was announced by Judge Merchan on Monday morning. The order imposing another $1,000 financial sanction stated as follows:

Defendant violated the Order by making public statements about the jury and how it was selected. In doing so, Defendant not only called into question the integrity, and therefore the legitimacy of these proceedings, but again raised the specter of  the safety of the jurors and of their loved ones. Such concerns undoubtedly threaten to "interfere with the fair administration of justice and constitutes a direct attack on the Rule of Law."

Judge Merchan addressed Trump directly from the bench (out of the presence of the jury), saying,

Mr. Trump, it’s important you understand, the last thing I want to do is put you in jail. You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president as well.

The magnitude of this decision is not lost on me but at the end of the day I have a job to do. So as much as I don’t want to impose a jail sanction … I want you to understand that I will if necessary and appropriate.

Judge Merchan has left Trump—and the court—no choice. If the prosecutors move to hold Trump in contempt again and request confinement as a penalty, Judge Merchan must sentence Trump to time in confinement.

As noted, we shall see whether Trump's bluff has been called or whether Trump will violate the gag order. If Trump is sentenced to confinement, it could be a positive development in the ongoing effort to bring Trump to justice. Showing that Trump can be jailed without provoking violence by his followers will be a healthy and cathartic rite of passage. Once the notion of Trump being in jail for brief periods is normalized, a longer sentence will seem less consequential.

Judge Merchan has been more than deferential to Trump's status as a former president and candidate. If Judge Merchan fails to punish future violations with confinement, Trump will have established that he is above the law. That is an exception our democracy cannot abide. However difficult and unsettling imprisoning a former president will be, the alternative would be far worse.

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The prosecution continues to make good progress in proving that Trump interfered in the 2016 election by falsifying documents

The prosecution continues to present a technically proficient and legally sound case against Trump. On Monday, the prosecution laid out the evidentiary basis to show that Trump reimbursed Cohen for the latter’s hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels.

The most damning pieces of evidence were two sets of handwritten notes by Trump Organization financial staff (Allen Weisselberg and Jeffrey McConney) that clearly document the $130,000 payment to Cohen as reimbursement that is “grossed up” to account for the income taxes on the reimbursements.

It is rare in criminal trials for conspirators to document the essence of their crime in handwritten notes. Here, two witnesses did so. Below is a copy of Allen Weisselberg’s handwritten note that shows the reimbursements were “grossed up” to cover the income taxes on the reimbursements disguised as legal fees.

The prosecution has laid an evidentiary foundation for the business records of the Trump Organization that document the crime. When those notes are combined with the checks signed by Trump that describe the subject of the payments as “legal fees,” the prosecution has established its case beyond a reasonable doubt. It does not need either Michael Cohen or Stormy Daniels to testify. That is a testament to the strength of the prosecution’s case. A fair jury should convict Trump based on the current evidence alone.

But the prosecution will likely call both Cohen and Daniels as witnesses to foreclose the possibility of Trump taking the stand. When the prosecution’s case is done, Trump will have virtually no room to lie his way out of the escape-proof room created by the prosecution.

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Democrats want to protect and extend Social Security and Medicare; Republicans want to cut benefits and raise retirement age

The Trustees of Social Security released an annual report on the health of Social Security and Medicare. The report is here: Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs | 2024.

It is important for Democrats to understand the true facts surrounding Social Security and Medicare so they can fight widespread disinformation on the topic. Let’s take a quick look at the facts and then at President Biden’s statement today.

The Washington Post ran a story on the Status Report for 2024 that was released today. The opening lines of the WaPo story stated as follows:

Social Security and Medicare will run out of money in just over a decade, a new report warned Monday

The trustees for the massive retirement programs project that Social Security will be insolvent by 2035

Both of the above statements are false or misleading—as is plainly shown by the Status Report that the WaPo journalists purport to summarize. But if WaPo can’t get the facts right, we have an uphill battle dispelling disinformation about the programs.

The true facts are as follows: Social Security and Medicare have four “reserve” or “trust funds” that are used to pay benefits. Both programs also rely on current payroll tax collections to meet current obligations to beneficiaries.

Two of the four Social Security and Medicare reserve funds have sufficient money to pay benefits until 2098 (and beyond!). However, two of the reserve funds are projected to be deleted by 2035. But—and this is really important—the programs associated with those two reserve funds will continue to pay substantial benefits from current payroll tax collections—79% and 89%, respectively.

So, it is not true that Social Security and Medicare will “run out of money” by 2035. Although two of four reserve funds will be depleted, even those programs will continue to pay significant benefits.

Moreover, the depletion of the two reserve funds can be easily remedied. As noted in a report by the Economic Policy Institute, some combination of raising the cap on wages subject to the payroll tax or indexing projections to conform to economic reality will address the projected shortfall. See Economic Policy Institute, Saving Social Security in Three Steps (epi.org).

As the EPI report notes, the projections on the depletion date on the reserve funds use pessimistic assessments about economic growth. Social Security and Medicare assume that the economy will grow by 1.4% per year over the next 55 years. The growth rate over the last 75 years has averaged 3.0%. If the Trustees of the programs used a modest 2% growth rate, much of the projected shortfall will disappear.

But the real fix is to raise the cap on wages subject to the payroll tax. Which is exactly what President Biden suggested today. See WhiteHouse.gov, Statement from President Joe Biden on the Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports. As President Biden noted,

My plan would extend Medicare solvency permanently by asking the wealthy to pay their fair share and lowering prescription drug costs. And I am committed to extending Social Security solvency by asking the highest-income Americans to pay their fair share without cutting benefits or privatizing Social Security.

Biden also noted that Republicans have a much darker and more painful fix:

Their budget sides with the wealthy and special interests to cut Social Security by over $1.5 trillion, increase the retirement age, raise prescription drug costs, and transition Medicare to a system that would raise premiums for many seniors. These changes are cruel and unnecessary.

Why do Republicans want to cut benefits rather than raise taxes on the wealthiest wage earners? The question answers itself. Trump is actively working to undermine the interests and social safety nets that help maintain financial and medical security for tens of millions of Americans. Indeed, most of Trump's base will be hurt if Republican proposals to cut benefits and raise the retirement age are adopted. Tell a friend!

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Opportunity for reader engagement

See the following note from 31st Street Swing Left:

Join Mandela Barnes, former Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin’s and  leader of Power to the Polls, and Diana Robinson of Make the Road Pennsylvania - Wednesday May 15 at 7p.m. ET. We are also supporting Wisconsin Native Voice. These c4 and c3 grassroots groups are vital for voter mobilization and voter registration in these key Blue Wall States. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are crucial for Biden, but also numerous other races up and down the ballot.  

31st Street Swing Left is an all-volunteer organization dedicated to electing Democrats, up and down the ballot, through persistence and precision, and especially by promoting broad impact, long term infrastructure.

Here is the link to register for this free event..  And here is the link to donate to the c4s - Power to the Polls and Make the Road Action. And here is link to tax-deductible c3s - Make the Road PA and Wisconsin Native Voice.

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Concluding Thoughts

It is a laudable goal to convince family members, especially younger family members, to show up in November to support President Biden. A reader posted a Comment noting a recent success in helping a younger family member see that President Biden is the best candidate for preserving democracy and making life better for all Americans.

But I continue to receive notes from readers who are distraught because of younger family members who say they will not vote for President Biden because of his support for Israel. They hope I can say something to convince their younger family members to change their minds—even though concerned parents and grandparents have already made all of the obvious arguments about the stakes in the 2024 elections and the comparison between President Biden and Trump.

I feel the hurt, confusion, and frustration expressed in your emails. While I would never counsel giving up on family members who may be persuadable, I urge readers in that position to recognize that registering and motivating the 70 million Americans who “did not vote” in 2020 to do so in 2024 is a great way to convert anxiety into action. If we can convince 1% of the “did not vote” cohort to show up in 2024, Joe Biden will win in a landslide of epic proportions.

With six months left, we must be strategic in investing in our physical and emotional energy. Helping Biden to win is something we must do before November. Helping family members to share in our vision of American democracy is a project that may take a much longer time. We shouldn’t give up on the effort, but we must be strategic in choosing where to deploy our limited resources in the next six months.

Talk to you tomorrow!

Post-script:

I took the photograph below with a SeeStar 50 smart telescope that my wife gave me for my birthday. (Thank you, Jill!) I took the image while I was writing this newsletter. I share the photo to help illustrate what I love about astronomy.

The light from the galaxy in the middle of the photo (NGC2903) traveled 30 million light years to reach my backyard on May 6, 2024. The light from the smaller galaxy in the upper left (NGC2916) traveled 130 million light years to reach my backyard the same night.

This single photo is a portrait of a 100-million-light-year chasm in the universe—a tiny fraction of the current size of the observable universe (93 billion light years). Under dark skies, both galaxies can be seen with binoculars. Every time you look into the night sky, you are looking hundreds of millions of years back in time, Humbling, no?