Biden over-performs while Republicans descend into delusion.

July 13, 2023

          The news is stuck in a weird pattern. President Biden is over-performing in the roles of international statesman and domestic leader while Republicans are caught in a vortex of delusion, animus, and anti-American conspiracies. But Biden is not getting the credit he deserves for his successes nor are the MAGA extremists earning the opprobrium they deserve for their dystopic vision of an autocratic America.

We can only hope that when voters stare into the abyss of a 2024 ballot box that offers starkly different choices for America’s future, they understand that there is only one choice—that offered by President Biden and the Democratic Party. Let’s look at how those different visions of America presented themselves on Wednesday.

Bidenomics continues to reduce inflation.

          Here is a widely known but little-discussed secret about the economy: Presidents have virtually no control over factors like inflation, job creation, and consumer demand. For a president to exert such control, they would need to pass a series of historic bills investing in America’s infrastructure, manufacturing, technology, energy, and agriculture—just like Joe Biden did in 2021 and 2022. So, unlike most presidents, Joe Biden can legitimately claim that his policies and legislation are responsible for job creation, inflation reduction, and wage growth.

          On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released encouraging news about a continued reduction in inflation—which is now 3.0% on an annualized basis, and 2.1% for the last quarter. The low(er) inflation rate suggests that the economy may avoid the recession that Republicans have been predicting (and hoping for) over the last eighteen months. For good or ill, presidents get the credit and the blame for economic performance over which they exert little control—as Time Magazine’s headline about the latest inflation report makes clear: Inflation Dropped Again In June. What That Means for Biden | Time.

          The economic news has been consistently good for Biden for the last six months. And there is no better source for summarizing that news than Simon Rosenberg in his Substack blog, Hopium Chronicles. His latest post is here: Really Good Inflation Numbers [and] Roundup of Recent Commentary. If you do not already subscribe to Rosenberg’s Substack newsletter, I highly recommend it. Readers who have subscribed based on my previous recommendation rave about Simon Rosenberg’s positive, cogent messaging about Democratic successes.

          I won’t repeat everything that Rosenberg says (you should read his post), but he covers other developments that reinforce the good news regarding inflation, including:

• Wages are now clearly outpacing inflation

• Job growth and GDP growth remain strong

• A recession is not on the horizon

• The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low

          That is good news, all around. Tell a friend!

Biden successfully balances unity with caution at NATO summit.

          It was not easy, but President Joe Biden managed to secure Turkey’s agreement to support Sweden’s admission to NATO and President Zelensky’s agreement that Ukraine’s admission to NATO should wait until Russia ceases its war on Ukraine. Both achievements are notable, but the latter is truly significant.

President Zelensky was angry in his initial response to news that the US would not support the immediate admission of Ukraine to NATO. But after personal talks with President Biden, the leaders of both nations issued statements agreeing that Ukraine’s admission should await the end of Russia’s war on Ukraine. See NPR, Ukraine can't join NATO yet. But Biden says Zelenskyy is OK with that and New Voice of Ukraine, Ukraine cannot join NATO amid ongoing war, Zelenskyy admits.

Meanwhile, Republicans grill FBI Director over conspiracy theories.

          While Biden was working to advance America’s interests at home and abroad, House Republicans were attacking Trump-appointed FBI Director Chris Wray about baseless conspiracy theories that the FBI understandably chose not to investigate. Wray fought back hard, saying, “The idea that I’m biased against conservatives seems somewhat insane to me, given my own personal background.” See The Hill, Wray takes aim at GOP claims of FBI politicization.

          Wray was forced to defend against GOP conspiracy theories that the FBI was a moving force behind the January 6th insurrection. Wray said,

This notion that somehow the violence at the Capitol on Jan. 6 was part of some operation orchestrated by FBI sources and agents is ludicrous and is a disservice to our brave, hardworking, dedicated men and women.

          Wray also commented on efforts by GOP Rep. Jim Jordan and others to “defund” the FBI. Wray noted that any such effort would make America less secure. Wray said:

It would hurt the American people, neighborhoods and communities all across this country, the people we’re protecting from cartels, violent criminals, gang members, predators, foreign and domestic terrorists, cyberattacks, I could go on and on. And the people that would help would be those same violent gangs and cartels, foreign terrorists, Chinese spies, hackers and so forth.

          When the Director of the FBI says that efforts by Republicans to attack the FBI are “insane,” “ludicrous,” and would “help violent gangs and foreign terrorists,” you know that the GOP is descending into madness.

Two defamation suits against GOP lies about January 6th and the 2020 election.

          In the aftermath of January 6th and Trump's loss in 2020, the GOP and Fox News began promoting lies about both events. Individuals who were targeted by the lies are fighting back through defamation suits—following the successful precedent of E. Jean Carroll (against Trump) and Dominion Voting Systems (against Fox).

        Fox News promoted the false story that Ray Epps—a two-time Trump voter—was a government undercover agent who encouraged insurrectionists to attack the Capitol to embarrass Trump. Epps is now suing Fox News. See NYTimes, Fox News Sued for Defamation by Man Linked to Conspiracy Theories. Epps demanded a retraction—a demand that Fox News has ignored. Fox News should expect to pay another substantial settlement for defaming Epps—who expects to be charged by the DOJ any day now for participating in the insurrection.

          Two Georgia election workers defamed by Rudy Giuliani--Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss—have asked a federal court to impose monetary sanctions against Rudy Giulian for failing to turn over electronic communications on his cell phone and computer. See Politico, Georgia election workers say Giuliani failed to turn over key evidence in defamation suit.

          Both developments are good news. Fox News and Republican operatives acted in wildly irresponsible ways following the 2020 election in the mistaken belief that they could defame innocent Americans with impunity. That belief has resulted in three-quarters of a billion-dollar payout by Fox and a two-billion claim still wending its way through the courts. Let’s hope that Ray Epps is indicted for his role in the insurrection and recovers millions from Fox for falsely claiming that Epps was working for the FBI.

          The claims underlying the defamation suits are part of the bad-faith conspiracy theories that continue to circulate among right-wing politicians and commentators today. Indeed, FBI Director Chris Wray went out of his way to debunk the Ray Epps conspiracy theory in his remarks to the House Judiciary Committee. The cumulative effect of suits by Dominion, Smartmatic, E. Jean Carroll, Ruby Freeman, and Shaye Moss should go a long way to controlling the spread of disinformation by solvent defendants going into 2024.

Russian general who was aware of Wagner Mutiny in advance is very tired.

          A prominent Russian general (Surovikin) was reportedly aware of the Wagner Mutiny in advance. General Surovikin has not been seen since the mutiny and is reportedly “taking a rest.” See NYTimes, Missing Russian General Sergei Surovikin Is ‘Taking a Rest’, Lawmaker Says.

          This story is a reminder that Putin is a murderous dictator who does not hesitate to eliminate his enemies—except when they are strong enough to threaten his grip on power (like Yevgeny Prigozhin).

Event with David Pepper.

          If you haven’t yet joined an event with David Pepper talking about the threats to democracy (as detailed in his book, Saving Democracy) there will be an opportunity next week. A group of great organizations—Downtown Nasty Women Social Group, Markers for Democracy, Indivisible New Rochelle, Larchmont Mamaroneck Indivisible, Markers For Democracy, Purple to Blue, Team Min, and The Wednesday Group—are sponsoring the event.

The event is free. Details: Tuesday, July 18th at 7:00 PM Eastern. Register here: David Pepper: Saving Democracy.

Recommended dose of positivity.

          A reader recommended a newsletter Future Crunch, which descrbes itself as follows:

Every week, we publish good news from around the world, and send it to over 48,000 subscribers from 180 countries. This is a regularly updated list of all those stories in one place.

          Many of the Future Crunch articles focus on the environment and health. The most recent newsletter (7/5/23) highlights the following:

• The Gates Foundation just announced $550 million for trials of a new TB vaccine covering 26,000 people in 50 sites in Africa and SE Asia.

• The WHO has certified Belize as free of malaria, after a 70-year-long effort to eradicate the disease.

• The Indian state of Karnataka has made bus travel free for all women. The policy could be life-changing–in India’s patriarchal culture, where one way of controlling women’s movement is by denying them money.

• Nepal's Supreme Court has issued an order clearing the way for same-sex marriage for the first time in the largely conservative country.

• The US murder rate has fallen by 10-12% this year. So far, the only coverage from mainstream media has been an article in The Atlantic and a mention in the New York Times newsletter.

          Check out Future Crunch!

Concluding Thoughts.

          There is more to discuss, but the newsletters have been increasingly lengthy of late. On the theory that less is more (because it forces me to focus on the important stuff), I will try to be briefer and more to the point. Tomorrow, I will discuss climate change in Florida that is driving out insurers. I will also address recently published analyses regarding 2022 turnout that should give Democrats pause for reflection.

          The new analyses regarding turnout in 2022 are no reason to panic but they do demand serious consideration. Before looking at those analyses tomorrow, I was struck by the fact that the authors shared only one convincing explanation for what happened in 2022:

“In the end, what most likely drove Democrats to the polls was less about Mr. Biden’s actions than a broader reaction to the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.”

          If that observation is true, the draconian restrictions on reproductive liberty enacted after 2022 should give Democrats even more momentum in 2024 than they had in 2022. With that, let’s leave the more complicated discussion to tomorrow.

          Stay strong everyone! Talk to you tomorrow!