Biden heads to Florida
April 20, 2024
President Biden will be heading to Florida next week as that state’s most infamous resident is otherwise detained in a Manhattan courtroom. Biden will arrive in Florida one week before the state’s six-week abortion ban goes into effect. The President will deliver a speech that focuses on abortion access, a topic that has rarely served as the main subject of a Biden speech. See Politico, Biden to deliver abortion-focused speech in Florida.
Over the last two decades, Biden has been a strong advocate for women’s reproductive rights. He has advocated for those rights despite his deep devotion to a religion that teaches abortion is wrong. As described in Politico,
Biden’s addressing of abortion head-on is also significant, as the devout Catholic has often displayed discomfort with the issue. Instead, he’s regularly leaned on other messengers, including Vice President Kamala Harris and women who have been directly affected, to argue for abortion rights. His campaign has released several testimonial-style ads that feature women sharing personal stories about abortion.
The dichotomy between Biden’s personal beliefs and political stance has resulted in criticism of Biden among some abortion rights groups. Biden re-ignited those concerns when he skipped over the word “abortion” in his State of the Union address and instead emphasized restoring Roe v. Wade and protecting IVF and pregnancy-related emergency healthcare.
The Biden campaign is expanding the debate to include all aspects of reproductive rights to bring “pro-life” Republicans and independents into the 2024 Democratic coalition. For example, The Guardian reported that anti-abortion laws have prompted emergency rooms to refuse treatment to women experiencing pregnancy-related medical emergencies—a healthcare crisis that affects all women without regard to their beliefs about reproductive liberty. See The Guardian, Rise in pregnant women turned away from US emergency rooms, papers show.
By going to Florida to address the imminent six-week abortion ban, Biden is stepping into the breach as Floridians are supporting an initiative to amend Florida’s constitution to protect abortion rights. See Florida Amendment 4, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024) - Ballotpedia.
A 60% super-majority is required to pass the initiative to amend Florida’s constitution. Current polling shows that 57% of likely voters in Florida support the initiative to include abortion rights in the state constitution. But 78% of Democrats in Florida support the initiative, demonstrating that turnout will be the deciding factor. See Nearly three in five registered voters in Florida favor expanding abortion access via ballot measure | Ipsos.
As I noted at the beginning of this week, I will attempt to keep attention focused on President Biden’s activities so that Trump's trial in Manhattan does not overshadow Biden’s accomplishments and campaign activities. A reader recommended a new Substack newsletter, What Did Joe Biden Do Today? It is well-written and informative. I have subscribed to the What Did Joe Biden Do Today newsletter. Check it out!
House moves toward vote on Ukraine aid bill on Saturday
Speaker Mike Johnson has continued to advance the Ukraine aid bill toward a final vote in the House on Saturday—where it will pass. The bill will need to be reconciled with the Senate version, but those details are procedural, not substantive.
Speaker Johnson’s change of heart and tactics continue to surprise almost everyone in Washington, including members of the GOP “Freedom” Caucus, who believed that they controlled Johnson. They appear to be mistaken. Instead of controlling Johnson with constant threats of removal, they may have worn out their welcome and credibility with the remainder of the Republican caucus in the House. See The Hill, Comer denounces Greene’s motion to vacate Speaker: ‘Not the right business model.
Politico reported yesterday that Johnson’s change of heart may have been motivated by intelligence reports that Ukraine may lose its war against the Russian invasion in 2024 unless the US provides aid immediately. See Politico, How Johnson and Biden locked arms on Ukraine.
Per Politico,
The intelligence, shown to lawmakers last week and described by two members who have seen it, built on weeks of reports that have alarmed members of Congress and Biden administration officials. On Thursday, CIA Director William Burns warned that, barring more U.S. aid, Ukraine “could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024.”
It heightened the sense of urgency surrounding a White House effort to convince Johnson to hold a public vote on Ukraine aid that has dragged on behind the scenes since the day he became speaker.
Regardless of what is motivating Mike Johnson to act, he is finally doing the right thing. Democrats should continue to support him in those efforts, even if it means voting to continue his Speakership until the foreign aid bills are safely signed into law.
Substack author TCinLA has written an especially fine essay describing the shift in the political winds in the House. See TCinLA, That’s Another Fine Mess, The Wind Has Changed. Check it out! I guarantee that you will be informed and moved by TC’s description of a change in the wind for American democracy.
Trump's legal troubles
Manhattan Election Interference Trial
Judge Juan Merchan continued his strong management of the trial of Donald Trump for election interference. Jury selection concluded on Friday and opening statements are scheduled for Monday.
Trump and his lawyers continue to push the envelope with Judge Merchan—who has pushed back harder. Two small incidents serve as positive portents for the management of the trial over the next several weeks.
Judge Merchan reprimanded Trump when he bolted out his chair to leave the courtroom before Judge Merchan had left the bench. Merchan snapped at Trump, “Sir, can you please take a seat!” Here is the description from the Daily Beast:
His long, black robes dangled from beneath his right hand as he waved it down, like a man addressing his dog. It wasn’t a question. And while the judge maintains a stoic demeanor at all times, the tone was decidedly sharper than even the one he’d taken when expressing disappointment in Trump’s lawyers minutes earlier.
Trump returned to his chair and slumped sullenly. Merchan is signaling to Trump who is in charge in the courtroom.
Separately, Judge Merchan told Trump's lawyers that he has had enough of their constant objections. Per Huffington Post,
Merchan appears tired of spending time addressing procedural issues that Trump’s team has already asked him to address, saying, “At this point, what’s happening is defense is targeting individual decisions one by one by one by one … there comes a point where you accept my rulings.”
“My rulings are what they are. I’ve entertained your motions, I’ve entertained your arguments in good faith,” he said.
“We’re going to have opening statements on Monday morning. This trial is starting.”
These small details suggest that Judge Merchan will give prosecutors a fair opportunity to present their evidence against Trump. It is still possible that Trump could act out in ways that would disrupt the trial, but Judge Merchan is doing his best to ensure a fair trial for all concerned. That is all we can ask for!
Monday hearing on Trump appeal bond
While Trump is in Judge Merchan’s courtroom on Monday listening to opening arguments, NY Attorney General Letitia James will be appearing before Judge Arthur Engoron arguing that Trump's $175 million appeal bond is deficient. If AG Games is successful, the state of New York will be able to seize Trump's assets to satisfy the underlying $454 million judgment against him. See The Hill, NY AG asks Trump civil fraud judge to declare $175M bond ‘without effect’.
If Judge Engoron applies the plain language of New York law to the bond filed by Trump, the judge will declare the bond invalid and allow the state to begin seizing Trump's assets.
More on NHS Cass Report re transgender care
I asked readers for information on England’s National Health Service Cass Report on transgender care. The report was released last week and is critical of clinical treatment for transgender youth seeking care that affirms their sexual identity.
Dozens of readers recommended a Substack publication by Erin in the Morning, Cass Met With DeSantis Pick Over Trans Ban: Her Review Now Targets England Trans Care. The author, Erin Reed, is described as “Transgender Journalist reporting on LGBTQ+ legislation, news, and life every day.”
Erin’s analysis refers to other sources that identify a dispute over the presence—or absence—of relevant studies as a primary criticism of the Cass Report. The Cass report rejects nearly 100% of studies relating to transgender services and then concludes—unsurprisingly—that there are insufficient studies to support transgender medical care for youth. The report thus employs circular reasoning to support its conclusions.
Cass rejects existing studies because they are not “randomized controlled trials.” As a critic of the Cass report notes,
For many medical interventions, including gender affirming medical treatment for trans youth, randomized controlled trials are unfeasible and unethical, because the consequences of not intervening would be apparent to the participants and also would be unacceptably harmful . . . . Accordingly, evidence from randomized controlled trials is often not required of many medical interventions . . . .
Erin Reed published a second article on her Substack blog that reports Dr. Cass is already retracting or modifying conclusions set forth in her report. See Erin in the Morning, Dr. Cass Backpedals From Review: HRT, Blockers Should Be Made Available.
More on this topic in the future.
Concluding Thoughts
I want to again recommend TCinLA’s essay as a good way to ease into the weekend. TCinLA, The Wind Has Changed. Read it; you will be glad you did!
As we move into the weekend, we should recognize the accomplishments of the week: aid to Ukraine and picking a jury in the Trump election interference trial. If you had been asked last Monday to predict whether both of those events would have transpired this week, you would have said, “Not likely.”
But the wind changed over the last week. The precise moment when the change began is unknown and unknowable because it emerged from small eddies and perturbations that seemed insignificant when they first stirred. Change often seems sudden and unbidden. But, in reality, it is the product of innumerable, unremarkable small events that combine into an emergent force. Your daily actions are creating small events that combine into an emergent force for good!
Keep up your good work! It is beginning to bear fruit!
Talk to you on Monday!
Just so you know, it was the postcard I sent to Speaker Johnson over a week ago that changed his mind about bringing Ukraine aid to the House Floor. You're welcome😉!
It may seem a bit curmudgeonly of me to not join all the media cheering for Speaker Johnson’s having “done the right thing”. Yes, it's good that he finally acted. But the entire package now being passed in the House is pretty much the same as HR 815, which Mr. Johnson could have brought to the floor back in February, or in March, or last week.
The difference is that now, instead of going directly to President Biden to be signed into law, the aid package of must go back to the Senate for another vote. After two months of pointless delay, the measure will wait yet another ten days or more for the Senate to reconvene and take it up. And all the while, the war grinds on.
In fact, Mr. Johnson utterly failed to decisively confront the radical MAGA faction when he had every opportunity to do so. Only after House Minority Leader Jeffries and President Biden effectively immunized him from their threats did he facilitate passage of this crucial piece of legislation. His is no profile in courage.
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