Biden and Ukraine, one year later.

February 24, 2023

          One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the members of the United Nations voted overwhelmingly to demand Russia’s immediate and unconditional withdrawal from Ukraine. The vote was 141 in favor, 7 opposed, and 32 abstentions, nearly identical to the vote held last October—143 in favor, 5 opposed, and 35 abstentions. The two-vote increase in opposition to the resolution came from Mali and Nicaragua, who joined Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, and Syria in voting against the demand for withdrawal. In a world that can agree on almost nothing, the vote was a commanding display of unity and resolve. See The Guardian, UN calls for immediate Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.

          The Ukrainian people deserve all credit for their brave defense of their homeland. But the US played a leading role in creating and holding together a global coalition that has funded and equipped Ukraine’s defense. Joe Biden provided key leadership in achieving that unity, though he received significant assistance from the leaders of Canada, the UK, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark, among others.

          One year after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine is bloodied but not bowed, while Russia is significantly weakened. Putin no longer feels safe traveling by air within the borders of his own country. His leading generals are engaged in a public relations war with Putin’s private army (the Wagner Group) over access to dwindling stocks of ammunition. See NYTimes, Wagner Group Chief Accuses Russian Military Command of Treason.

Russia’s only significant ally—China—will not oppose UN resolutions condemning Russia. The once-vaunted navy of the USSR has dwindled under Russia’s control and has suffered humiliating defeats in “safe” waters off the coast of Ukraine. Russia’s fighter aircraft appear to be “missing in action” over the skies of Ukraine.

          There is no clear path to victory for either Ukraine or Russia, but each new setback for Russia raises the question of whether Ukraine can win by outlasting the rapidly weakening Putin. Indeed, on Thursday, China reiterated its call for peace, proposing a 12-point plan. The first point is “Respecting the sovereignty of all countries,” a provision that seems like a criticism of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. See AU News, China calls for peace talks, ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.  

           All of the above suggests that Joe Biden’s steady, resolute approach to supporting Ukraine is working on the global stage. Leading congressional Republicans, on the other hand, are complaining of “Ukraine fatigue” as they simultaneously suggest that it might be time for US states to split into separate nations along party lines (a ridiculous suggestion that betrays ignorance of the Constitution, US history, and demographics). See Newsweek, Ex-General Blasts Matt Gaetz Over Ukraine Fatigue Bill: 'Disgusted', and Fox News Trashes Marjorie Taylor Greene's 'National Divorce' Idea.

          There is a near-perfect overlap between those Republicans who support Matt Gaetz’s “Ukraine fatigue” bill and those who supported the January 6^th insurrection. See list here. Gosh! It is almost like the “Ukraine fatigue” caucus is working to advance Russia’s interests by undermining support for Ukraine while advancing the idea that America should break apart (also in Russia’s interest)!

          Through it all, Joe Biden has been a model of constancy and resolve. As with many other issues, Biden has surprised his critics and supporters with his handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Let’s hope that some congressional Republicans will join Democrats in supporting Ukraine to allow it to outlast Putin.

Did the comments of the forewoman of the Fulton County special grand jury damage the potential case against Trump?

          Many political commentators are suggesting that the comments by the forewoman of the Fulton County special grand jury may have damaged the case against Trump by commenting publicly on certain aspects of the grand jury’s deliberations. I don’t believe she has. No statute or rule prohibits members of the special grand jury from speaking to the press after they have been discharged.

Although this is not a perfect analogy, for those of you who have served on criminal or civil juries, you may recall that you were free to speak to the lawyers for the parties or the media about your deliberations after the judge discharged the jury at the end of the case.

          Indeed, the judge to whom the grand jurors delivered their report did not prohibit them from talking to the media. And none of the commentators who are criticizing the forewoman have pointed to any statute or rule that has been violated by her comments. Instead, they invoke generalized notions of fairness and due process in suggesting that she should have refused to speak to the media.

          Of course, Trump’s lawyers are already planning to seek dismissal of any indictment based on the forewoman’s comments, but that motion will fail. On a matter hotly contested by reputable commentators, the tie goes to Laurence Tribe, who tweeted,

I think Emily Kohrs’ silly blabbing is a tempest in a teapot and provides no serious basis for any future “claim of violation of the due process rights of the accused.

Secretary of Transportation Buttigieg calls on Trump to reverse his position on railway deregulation.  

          Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg deftly called on Trump to reverse his prior support for rail industry de-regulation. When Trump visited East Palestine, Ohio, earlier in the week, he claimed that he “had nothing to do with” the repeal of the regulations that some claim caused the derailment. Secretary Buttigieg saw an opening and took it when he visited East Palestine on Thursday. Buttigieg said,

One thing [Trump] can do is express support for reversing the deregulation that happened on his watch. I heard him say he had nothing to do with it, even though it was in his administration. So, if he had nothing to do with it and they did it in his administration against his will, maybe he can come out and say that he supports us moving in a different direction.

          Well said! And it might just work. Trump has a feral instinct that helps him sense the direction of political winds. On this issue, the disaster and mishandling of the cleanup have become a populist issue that runs counter to the usual GOP support for corporations. See Vox, Ohio train derailment: Why Republicans seized on the East Palestine accident. (“The East Palestine disaster also presents an opportunity for the GOP’s populist wing to further break from party orthodoxy and target corporate America. In this case, the easy target is Norfolk Southern, the railroad conglomerate that owned the derailed freight train.”)

           Trump may view the derailment and botched cleanup as an opportunity to re-claim his mantel as the “outsider” who opposes “the swamp” of lobbyists and Washington lawyers. That would, of course, be nauseating given all that Trump has done to promote corporate profitability over safety and the environment, but I wouldn’t put it past him. And Buttigieg’s comments may be what pushes him over the edge.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Okay, I have hit the wall. After a 4:00 AM start in snowy Fairbanks and a 4-hour layover in Seattle, I am no longer certain that what I am writing from home in Los Angeles makes sense. So, I will stop here.

          I do want to take a moment to thank the readers in Alaska that my wife and I met on our Alaskan adventure. We had the pleasure of meeting with eight readers who live in Anchorage. But we were also surprised to find that ten of our tour companions (out of forty) were readers of the newsletter! That happy coincidence provided many hours of pleasant and interesting conversations and companionship that we will not forget.

          Moreover, as always, meeting readers reinforces my faith and confidence in the righteousness of our cause and the inevitability of our success. Across America, there are tens of millions of people who feel exactly as you do—and who are committed to repairing the damage inflicted during the last six years. We are making good progress and have every reason to be hopeful about our prospects—though no reason to be complacent!

          I will be in touch over the weekend and may send a few pictures. I have been surprised by the strong reader response to the pictures and received many requests to provide more. Because it feels a bit weird to use a political blog to post vacation pictures, I will exercise restraint. And if you are not interested, I appreciate your indulgence this weekend.

          Talk to you tomorrow!