Republicans, the media, and the pollsters are underestimating the alarm and urgency that a strong majority of Americans feel about the GOP assault on reproductive liberty. When pundits are forced to explain why they were wrong in their predictions about the 2024 elections, they will claim they failed to appreciate the depth of anger and outrage felt by Americans who were denied basic rights guaranteed by the Constitution.
On a day when reproductive liberty was under active attack by MAGA extremists, President Biden and Vice President Harris were campaigning to protect and expand those rights. One day after Trump said he would support state laws to monitor women’s pregnancies to enforce abortion bans, the Biden-Harris campaign issued a joint statement that said, in part,
Donald Trump’s latest comments leave little doubt: if elected he’ll sign a national abortion ban, allow women who have an abortion to be prosecuted and punished, allow the government to invade women’s privacy to monitor their pregnancies, and put IVF and contraception in jeopardy nationwide.
Simply put: November’s election will determine whether women in the United States have reproductive freedom, or whether Trump’s new government will continue its assault to control women’s health care decisions.
Vice President Harris was in Florida on the eve of that state’s six-week abortion ban. At a campaign stop, the Vice President attacked “Trump's abortion bans,” warning that “things will be even worse if Trump is reelected.” See ABC News, Harris hammers Trump for Florida's new abortion ban, warns it will be 'even worse' if he wins.
Vice President Harris said, in part,
Donald Trump's friends in the United States Congress are trying to pass a national ban and understand a national ban would outlaw abortion in every single state, even in states like New York and California.
Biden and Harris are not exaggerating the threat of a national abortion ban and pregnancy monitoring under the Trump administration. Trump's abortion policy is outlined in Project 2025, a detailed blueprint of the policy goals and actions planned by the Trump administration.
Project 2025 calls for a national abortion ban by simply appointing an Attorney General who will claim that the moribund Comstock Act effectively prohibits abortion healthcare. See The New Republic, Conservatives Plan to Ban Abortion and Cut LGBT Rights Starting Next January.
Per TNR, Trump's policy would be as follows:
Outlaw abortion. Until then, surveil abortion in the areas in which it remains legal in order to prioritize criminal cases against “chemical abortion” and “abortion tourism.” The playbook says the president should enforce a 150-year-old law, the Comstock Act, which right-wing groups see as a way to ban abortion nationally because it outlaws the use of the mail for the purposes of sending or receiving any object that could be used for an abortion.
As Project 2025 authors plot to further erode reproductive liberty, Republicans know that their extremist positions are losing propositions in the general election. On Wednesday, two Republicans in the Arizona Senate joined with fourteen Democrats to repeal Arizona’s 1864 analog to the Comstock Act. Arizona will thus revert to a 15-week abortion ban that was passed shortly before the Dobbs decision. See NPR, Arizona lawmakers vote by a narrow margin to repeal Civil War-era abortion ban.
With only two Senate Republicans crossing over to repeal the 1864 law, the issue of reproductive liberty is still very much on the ballot in Arizona in November. Both chambers of the Arizona legislature have narrow Republican majorities and are flippable. Moreover, proponents of reproductive liberty successfully qualified a pro-choice ballot initiative to amend the Arizona constitution in November. See Ballotpedia, Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative (2024).
The issue of reproductive liberty drove voters to the polls in the 2022 midterms and special elections thereafter. But pundits and pollsters dismiss those actual results as unrepresentative because . . . why?? Because they don’t agree with their polls that overweight Republican respondents who still answer their landlines.
Actual results matter, and when women and men have had the opportunity to make their voices heard in elections, they have proven that Americans are highly motivated to vote for Democrats in 2024 in order to protect reproductive liberty.
It is essential that all Americans—but especially women and couples of childbearing age—understand that MAGA is trying to criminalize their family planning efforts.
The Gaza war, student protests, and Congressional legislation against anti-semitism
Yesterday, I attempted to address how protests regarding the war in Gaza might affect the 2024 presidential election. Many readers responded by recommending a Substack article in by Jay Kuo, Status Kuo, How To Speak To Voters Who Say They Can't Support Biden Because Of Gaza.
Kuo provides concrete suggestions on what to say (and not to say) when talking with people who say they will not vote for Joe Biden because of his policies regarding Israel. I highly recommend Jay Kuo’s article as a helpful contribution in discussing a vexing and difficult topic.
As I noted yesterday, Trump will find a way to alienate young voters and college students concerned about the war in Gaza. It took less than 24-hours for that prediction to come true. During a campaign rally on Wednesday, Trump called the arrests of pro-Palestinian protesters “a beautiful thing to watch.” See The Hill, Trump says police clearing Columbia protesters was ‘a beautiful thing to watch’ While there are many relevant observations that could be made about the arrests, Trump's claim that it was “a beautiful thing to watch” is not among the appropriate descriptions.
Trump also called on college presidents to “vanquish the radicals” who are protesting the war in Gaza. Trump bizarrely claimed that the protests were an effort to distract from the “millions” of migrants allegedly “pouring into our country” from the southern border.
With six months of campaigning to go, Trump will continue to ratchet up his hateful, anti-Muslim rhetoric. He has already promised to refuse entry into the US for refugees from Gaza and to reinstitute the bar on entry into the US from majority Muslim countries.
Finally, the House passed the Antisemitism Awareness Act. According to WaPo, the Act would
empower the federal government to crack down on anti-Israel protests on campuses by codifying a definition of antisemitism that encompasses not just threats against Jews, but also certain criticisms of Israel itself.
See Washington Post, House passes divisive antisemitism bill as GOP denounces campus protests.
As noted in WaPo, the debate surrounding the Act was highly divisive. Per WaPo,
Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), a Jewish lawmaker who has co-sponsored other bills aimed at combating antisemitism and described himself Wednesday as a “deeply committed Zionist,” urged colleagues to reject Lawler’s bill, which he characterized as “misguided” because it “threatens to chill constitutionally protected speech.”
“If this legislation were to become law,” he said, universities wanting to avoid federal investigation “could end up suppressing protected speech criticizing Israel or supporting Palestinians,” and students and faculty might be driven to self-censor.
Proponents of the bill contend that it is necessary to protect Jewish students on college campuses from antisemitic speech. One of the sponsors, Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer said that the bill “protects the First Amendment” [and] “allows criticism of Israel,” [but] “doesn’t allow calls for the destruction or elimination of the Jewish state.”
While the intent of the bill is laudable, having Congress prescribe what speech is permissible seems squarely at odds with the First Amendment. Moreover, Republicans will likely use the bill as an excuse to conduct further hearings into campus oversight by administrators.
The solution is for college administrators to protect their Jewish students from antisemitic speech by enforcing existing codes of conduct while permitting other students to engage in constitutionally protected speech.
That is easier said than done. But having Congress pass legislation that contradicts the plain language of the First Amendment is a dubious step. (“Congress shall make no law . . . .”).
Trump's campaign speeches on Wednesday
Trump was not in trial on Wednesday, so he made two campaign appearances. He said many things that were incomprehensible, alarming, and ridiculous. Rather than detail everything, let’s focus on one of the most ridiculous statements: He said he would repeal the Inflation Reduction Act. Doing so would
increase the deficit,
eliminate the $35 per month cap on insulin,
deny access to the Affordable Care Act to millions of Americans,
increase the cap for prescription medications under Medicare D from $2,000 per year to $3,500 per year,
eliminate billions in investments in states and local communities for clean energy projects, and
imperil 150,000+ jobs.
Trump is intent on destroying the accomplishments of the Inflation Reduction Act because it authorized money for the IRS to replace staff that will retire or quit over the next decade. With Trump, it’s always about evading or reducing taxes (and Putin).
Opportunities for reader engagement.
Today’s Edition Zoom fundraiser with Colin Allred.
Thanks to the hundreds of readers who have signed up to watch my conversation with Colin Allred on Tuesday, May 14 at 5:30 pm Pacific / 7:30 pm Central / 8:30 pm Eastern.
If you signed up already, you will receive a Zoom link 48-hours before the event.
If you haven’t signed up and are want to learn more about Colin Allred and his bid to remove Ted Cruz from the Senate, watch Colin’s fantastic campaign launch video here: Our Team is Texas | Colin Allred for US Senate.
The link to donate and register for the event is here: Colin Allred for US Senate | Today's Edition Virtual Fundraiser.
PostCardsToVoters supporting John Barrow for Georgia Supreme Court
PostcardsToVoters.org volunteers are now writing for John Barrow for Georgia Supreme Court. The election is on May 21st and it’s statewide so WE NEED HELP. This PTV Linktr.ee gives all the info go get started or re-started. John is running on a woman’s right to choose. From the campaign about John’s opponent:
“John Barrow’s opponent—Andrew Pinson—is one of the architects of the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Pinson was a law clerk to Clarence Thomas and was the lawyer representing Georgia in Dobbs. As a reward, Pinson was appointed to Georgia Supreme Court. But we can stop him — by reminding enough voters to show up for John Barrow.”
If Georgia voters flip a seat on the Supreme Court, it will encourage Democrats to invest in Georgia as a swing state in November. Democrats everywhere need Georgia to be in play in the presidential election. A strong campaign for John Barrow for Georgia Supreme Court will help us achieve that goal!
Movement Voter Project hosts Rep. Jamie Raskin on May 7
Please join the Movement Voter Project (with special guest Congressman Jamie Raskin!) on Tuesday, May 7, at 7 PM Eastern/4 PM Pacific to learn how MVP invests in the best local organizing groups who can turn out the exact voters that we need to win in November.
MVP does the research on local organizations so you don’t have to. MVP maximizes your impact by investing in the best local voter engagement organizations and streamlines your giving — operating like a “mutual fund for political donations.”
To learn more about MVP, watch this inspiring two-minute video which shows how these groups plan to win this election and understand why your donation to MVP offers excellent value for your money!
Where: RSVP Here for Zoom Link
Can’t attend (there is no charge to attend) but want to give? Donate Here.
Concluding Thoughts
The reporting on Trump's demeanor at trial has focused on how diminished and constrained he seems in the courtroom. A reasonable inference is that the longer Trump sits in court, the worse it is for his campaign. I disagree.
In Trump's two brief appearances on Wednesday, he made a number of outrageous statements that will alienate voters who may have otherwise considered voting for him. And his speech facility is declining, with an increasing number of stumbles and nonsense words that raise serious questions about his competency.
In contrast, Joe Biden’s recent public appearances and interviews have revealed Biden to be a serious, likable, and earnest public servant who is doing his best to advance the interests of the American.
Here’s my point: The unfolding campaign will be kinder to Biden than to Trump—and the media is beginning to take notice. The trial deflated Trump's overblown tough-guy image and revealed him to be a sleepy older man incapable of paying attention to a trial that may result in his imprisonment.
For most people, watching a criminal trial that may send you to prison is a bracing experience that tends to focus the mind and heighten alertness. Not for Trump. Even public testimony about cheating on his current wife was snooze-worthy for Trump.
The chink in his image caused by the trial is driving a negative media narrative about his driftless bloviating on the campaign trail. Six months is a long time and will give Trump plenty of opportunity to reinforce the negative image created by his embarrassing performance at trial.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden is running the country and campaigning—and doing a good job at both!
Talk to you tomorrow!
The post-Dobbs outlook hasn’t just affected the care people can receive, it’s also changed where physicians choose to work, especially if they’re in states where they can be criminally prosecuted for performing abortions. This will undoubtedly also trickle down to whether many medical students will choose against entering the field of women's reproductive healthcare. This does not only relate to abortion healthcare, but it will encompass women's healthcare overall, including maternal healthcare.
"Abortion restrictions, combined with the challenges of practicing in rural areas, threaten to expand so-called 'maternal care deserts,' said Dr. Amy Domeyer-Klenske, who chairs the Wisconsin section of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists."
How is it that anti-abortion activists have such an intense lack of understanding of the disasters they are creating in that they dare to label themselves as "pro-life"?
https://apnews.com/article/dobbs-anniversary-roe-v-wade-abortion-obgyn-699263284cced4bd421bc83207678816
Trump writes Biden's advertising every day. Just repeat snippets of his most recent screeds. Within a 7-10 day period, he has a very good chance of alienating almost every demographic. The crazy talk just needs to be curated and re-broadcast to the right target audiences. That's the key. Spend a great deal of the campaign money buying air time on the critical and turnable state like Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and, I wish, Florida, Ohio, and Michigan.