Another good day!

August 8, 2024

The effort of Democrats to use Project 2025 as a millstone to sink Trump's presidential ambitions has Republicans running for the hills. On Wednesday, Trump's longtime evil minion Stephen Miller appeared on Ari Melber’s show on MSNBC to unequivocally deny any connection between Trump and Project 2025. (Miller was Trump's speechwriter who drafted Trump's “American Carnage” inaugural address in 2017.)

Miller claimed that Trump “is his own man” and “he alone decides what policies he will follow.” Miller explained that the near-perfect overlap between Project 2025’s policy goals and Trump's campaign promises is pure coincidence.

Ha! Good one! Who says MAGA extremists don’t have a sense of humor? For Trump to “set his own policies,” the following improbable conditions would need to exist simultaneously: (a) Trump would have to understand the differences in competing policies; (b) he would have to care about policies that did not affect his personal power and wealth; and (c) he would have to do the work of promoting and implementing those policies. Yeah, right! That didn’t happen in Trump's first term, and he has told us that the only policies of his hoped-for second term will be vengeance and retribution.

Ari Melber was having none of Stephen Miller’s disinformation. But Miller was running from Project 2025 as fast as he could. For good reason. Focus group testing has shown that when Republican and Independent voters hear about the substance of Project 2025, they oppose it overwhelmingly.

Republicans know this and are trying to repair the damage of having published their plot to end democracy. See Navigator Research, Focus Group Report: Project 2025. (“After participants viewed clips of the Wall Street Journal video detailing Project 2025, disdain for the plan grew.”)

The problem (for Republicans) is that Democrats have done a great job of identifying Trump as the prime beneficiary of Project 2025. Indeed, on its website, Project 2025 is described as a “Presidential Transition Project.” Since the project was drafted by Trump administration alumni, the “presidential transition” was for Trump, not Biden (now Harris).

Republicans are in full panic mode. JD Vance wrote the forward to a book by Project 2025’s author Eric Roberts, “Dawn’s Early Light,” which summarizes Project 2025. The book was scheduled to be published this month (August 2024) but has now been mysteriously delayed until after the election. See Media Matters for America, Delayed publication of Heritage president's book reflects Project 2025 shell game. Unfortunately for JD Vance and Trump, Media Matters has obtained a galley copy of Eric Roberts’ book and is willing to share!

But it gets worse (for Trump). In 2022, Trump shared a private jet ride with Kevin Roberts on the way to a Heritage Foundation conference. (Heritage Foundation is the sponsor and funder of Project 2025). At the Heritage Foundation conference,

Trump delivered a keynote address that gestured to Heritage’s forthcoming policy proposals. “They’re going to lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do.”

Separately, Roberts told The Washington Post in an interview in April of this year that he had previously discussed Project 2025 with Trump as part of offering briefings to all presidential candidates. “I personally have talked to President Trump about Project 2025,”

See Washington Post, Trump took a private flight with Project 2025 leader in 2022. (This article is accessible to all.)

Given that Kevin Roberts said he briefed Trump on Project 2025 and Trump told Heritage that the project “lay[s] the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do,” Trump's claim last month that “Have no idea who is in charge of it” is a blatant lie. Although Trump claims that he and Kevin Roberts did not discuss the project on the flight, Trump's comments at the Heritage Foundation conference make clear that Trump knows exactly what Project 2025 is.

The Trump campaign’s release of Project 2025 was an act of hubris and overconfidence it now regrets, just like its effort to drive Joe Biden out of the race.

Here's the point: Trump has been caught with his hand in Project 2025 cookie jar and we must continue to tie Trump and Vance to the project and make clear that they are lying about their lack of involvement in the project.

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On the campaign trail with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have managed to continue the momentum and enthusiasm of the Harris campaign. Trump was missing in action from the campaign trail, while JD Vance stalked Harris and Walz, drawing paltry crowds while showing flashes of anger and arrogance. JD Vance is turning out the be an “anti-candidate” who is a drag on the ticket.

At a rally in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, Harris and Walz drew a crowd of 10,000, while a rally in Detroit drew 15,000. Per reports, the interest in the rallies far exceeded the capacity of the venues. See The Guardian, ‘We’re not going back’: thousands rally for Harris and Walz in Wisconsin and Michigan.

A simultaneous appearance by JD Vance in Michigan (Shelby Township) drew a crowd so small it was outnumbered by the press contingent covering the event. See video embedded here. See Newsweek, Liz Cheney Takes New Dig at JD Vance's Rally Sizes. Per Newsweek,

A video of the event shared to X by Michigan political reporter Maggie George suggests that the small number of people attending the Vance speech in support of the candidate was rivaled by the press covering the event.

The small crowd is an indication of the lack of coordination and ground game by the Trump campaign—a lack of focus that starts at the top with Trump. Per reports, Trump is spending more time blaming advisers and complaining about his campaign’s problems than campaigning. See WaPo, Trump complains about campaign as advisers try to focus on attacking Harris. (This article is behind a paywall.)

JD Vance did Trump no favors on Wednesday when he gave a sour response to a reporter’s question about Vance being “joyless” and angry:

Reporter: You have been criticized as being a little too serious, a little angry sometimes. What makes you smile? What makes you happy?

JD Vance: Well, I smile at a lot of things, including bogus questions from the media, Dan. A-HAHA-Heh-heh. .  . .But, look, sometimes you got to take the good with the bad. And right now, I am angry about what Kamala Harris has done to this country and done to the American southern border.

After insulting the reporter and describing himself as “angry,” Vance then acknowledged that Trump “loves to . . . make fun of everybody that’s out there.” See Trump VP Pick Laughs as Reporter Asks 'What Makes You SMILE?

The stark contrast between the well-executed, enthusiastic, joyful campaign of Harris and Walz is dramatic. And it is encouraging. See Salon, "Bringing back the joy": Kamala Harris' rally blows away JD Vance's weird appearance across town | Salon.com

But the race remains tight (tied?) despite positive signs in almost every new poll that suggest a strong trend in favor of Harris and Walz. If you are confused by that statement, read on!

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A quick word about the limitations of polling.

For those struggling to make sense of a rapidly changing polling environment that allows pundits to claim either that Trump is leading or losing, I highly recommend an essay by Michael Podhorzer, Mad Poll Disease Redux, Harris-Walz Edition. Podhorzer looks at the limitations of polling and forecasting. For example, Podhorzer makes this point:

In other words . . . being accurate about who people say they will vote for in November is different from being accurate about who they will vote for in November.

Podhorzer also addresses the silliness of forecasting models made famous by Nate Silver. As Podhorzer says, they are “unfalsifiable” because if they “predict” the winner, Silver claims his model was right. But if the model doesn’t predict the winner, then the Nate Silvers of the world will scold you for “not understanding their model.”

If you are interested in polling (and you shouldn’t be), set aside a chunk of time to absorb Podhorzer’s criticism of the science of polling. Why? Because it will renew your faith in our ability to affect the outcome of the election—and free you of the feeling that we are prisoners to polling and predictions by pundits who don’t understand the limitations of their techniques and data (or who maliciously misrepresent what their polling means).

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Georgia elections board grants local officials power to conduct “reasonable inquiry” before certifying election results.

The potential for local election officials to interfere in the 2024 election by refusing to certify results is serious—and we must prepare to fight those efforts. The good news is that Democrats are preparing for those court fights. See Dennis Aftergut and Norman J. Ornstein, Salon, January 6 was a beta test for 2025.

I recommend the article by Aftergut and Ornstein in its entirety, but this passage is critical:

Here’s the good news. Most of the key swing states have as their top election officials people who will protect free and fair elections. They include Democratic Secretaries of States in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, as well as Republicans Al Schmidt in Pennsylvania and Brad Raffensperger in Georgia. Most of them won in the midterms, demonstrating once again the importance of protecting our votes.

That paragraph is worth re-reading.

On Wednesday, the Georgia state election board gave local officials the ostensible authority to conduct a “reasonable inquiry” before certifying local election results. There are two problems with the new rule.

First, the rule contradicts state law—which takes precedence. The Georgia state elections board cannot create a rule that supersedes state law. Per Democracy Docket,

That this [new rule] violates state law seems clear. The obligation of county boards to certify elections is mandatory and ministerial. Nothing in Georgia law permits individual members to interpose their own investigations or judgment into a largely ceremonial function involving basic math.

Second, refusing to certify local election results is a sucker’s game. Local officials are not empowered to challenge particular races on a ballot; they must certify (or not) the entire election in their jurisdiction. So, if local officials in Georgia try to delay certification, they do so for every candidate on the ballot—not just for the presidential candidates!

Delaying local certification (in Georgia, for example), could prevent the swearing in of the Georgia delegation in the House of Representatives, members of the Georgia State Senate and House, and four Georgia Supreme Court justices whose terms expire in 2024. If a local official attempts to delay certification to interfere in the presidential election, that state official will likewise prevent certification of every federal and state office that requires a statewide vote.

Can you think of anyone on the above list of federal and state offices who might feel aggrieved by an arbitrary refusal to follow the mandatory duties of state law? And do you think that the first person to the courthouse door to compel certification might be Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger or the State Attorney General? I do.

So, it is incorrect to view the refusal to certify only through the lens of the presidential election. That tactic will also prevent certification for dozens of important federal and state officials—who will undoubtedly bring pressure to bear on local officials to comply with state statutes rather than the unlawful rule passed by the state elections board.

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Opportunities for Reader engagement

Tonight, I am simply going to reprint the post by reader Cheryl Johnson in the Comment Section for yesterday’s newsletter:

I have signed up to be a poll watcher with the NC Democratic Party, which I also did in 2020 and 2022. Please consider stepping up to the plate and helping protect our democracy. (Training is provided). I took on a half dozen half-day shifts observing the process and checking in with the Democratic Party to report any issues. Mostly that was just lines although we did have couple of a medical emergencies involving elderly voters who insisted on waiting in line. (NC has curbside voting for anyone; no need to disclose a reason). There are also opportunities to observe at the Board of Elections as they review absentee ballots for acceptance. Check with your local party.

When I'm not doing that, I'll be working shifts on the Voter Protection hotline. The latter is something that you can do even if you aren't in a swing state. Check out VoPro Pros (https://www.vopropros.com/). You will get training and a great handbook that answers most of the voter's questions. But there are experts (including a team of lawyers) to resolve the more difficult questions and/or issues. Mostly it is just helping voters find out how to request (or track) their absentee ballot, whether they can still register to vote, or find out details about in-person early voting.

VoPro Pros also has opportunities to help with absentee ballot "curing" in states where it is allowed. (That's when an absentee/VBM ballot gets rejected for a specific reason and you help the voter fix it in time for their vote to count) I was on a Markers for Democracy call on Monday where a Democratic candidate for US House in NY was discussing a prior election (in a race for the state legislature) where he won by just 10 votes. Someone asked about ballot curing and he told us that the Democrats had successfully cured 45 ballots, while only 2 GOP ballots were cured.

We should all be like Cheryl Johnson. Keep up the excellent work, Cheryl! And “thank you” for everything you are doing to preserve our democracy!

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Concluding Thoughts

The Trump campaign spent most of the day trying to rough up Tim Walz. The efforts didn’t get much traction for two reasons. First, the facts alleged by Trump and Vance are patently false and easily disproved. The media did not fall for the bait. For example, Trump criticized Walz for his handling of the civil unrest after the murder of George Floyd. The Harris campaign then released a recording of Trump’s call to Walz in which Trump congratulated Walls for his handling of the civil unrest.

Second, the messengers are projecting their own flaws and failings onto Tim Walz. Trump—a felon in waiting—criticized Walz for restoring the right of felons to vote. Talk about a lack of self-awareness! JD Vance criticized Walz for being a “San Francisco liberal,” but Vance worked as a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley and owns $250,000 in Bitcoin—just like almost no one in America!

Vance’s attacks on Walz’s military record are pathetic. Vance claims that Walz resigned from the National Guard to avoid deployment to Iraq. But widely circulated stories proved that Walz gave notice of his intent to retire (to run for Congress) before his unit was notified it was being sent to Iraq. (The Constitution’s Incompatibility Clause prohibits a member of the military from simultaneously serving in Congress.)

So, if that’s the best they got, then Tim Walz and Kamala Harris should continue their tour de force of the swing states and make the most of the week before the Democratic National Convention. It was another good day—with many more to come!

Talk to you tomorrow!

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Below is the Crescent Nebula, 5,400 light years from Earth and 31 light years in diameter. The nebula is the result of multiple processes. Approximately 400,000 years ago, the star became a red giant. The slow-moving stellar wind from that expansion collided with faster-moving stellar winds created when the star began shedding its outer envelope about 10,000 years ago. The differential speed of the winds created a thermal shockwave of X-ray-emitting temperatures. And then, five thousand years later, the photons from that roiling cauldron of a dying star landed in my backyard. How wonderful is that?