Trump plunged America into chaos on Tuesday as the implications of his unconstitutional “freeze” on federal grants and loans began to sink in. In a gigantic miscalculation, Trump risked driving the US economy into a tailspin that would take years to overcome.
Or not.
Trump has the opportunity to blink (voluntarily or involuntarily)—but that window is closing rapidly. There are three offramps to this crisis caused by his illegal “freeze” on all federal grants and loans:
Public outrage will force Trump to retreat. A massive upwelling of public outrage is spreading across America. It may take a day or two for MAGA members of Congress to absorb the outrage from their constituents who suddenly realize Trump's thoughtless action has threatened their constituent’s economic security. Millions of Americans have been plunged into uncertainty over government benefits, loans, grants, and payments. They are letting their representatives know how they feel. See Politico, Trump's spending freeze spreads chaos across US. Indivisible has called on congressional Democrats to oppose all nominees until Trump repeals the unconstitutional freeze, saying, “Shut down the Senate.”
The markets may tell Trump to retreat. In a day or two, the money managers on Wall Street will realize that freezing government benefits to seniors, students, veterans, families, government contractors, and people in general will cause a sudden, massive contraction in consumer spending. A shrinking economy will instill fear in the most bullish fund managers. If the markets drop over worries of recession, Trump will hear from the only constituency he fears: Megadonors upset over losses in their portfolios.
Private litigants should be able to obtain an injunction. It is also possible that a judge will pick up a copy of the Constitution and read it. If they do so, they will grant a permanent injunction against Trump's unconstitutional order. On Tuesday, a federal judge granted an “administrative stay,” but that stay was ambiguous and limited. The stay was designed to allow the parties to submit briefing for a hearing next Monday. Moreover, the stay appeared to allow some portions of the “freeze” to remain in effect. See CNN, Judge temporarily blocks part of Trump administration’s plans to freeze federal aid.
Trump attempted to quiet the growing sense of panic by claiming that the freeze would not affect individuals receiving “direct assistance” from the federal government. That assurance is illusory because most federal grants and loans are not paid directly to individuals but rather, are paid through states, federal agencies, and third-party programs that manage federal grants and loans—e.g., Head Start, scientific research grants, federal infrastructure projects, educational subsidies to state schools, programs to support and house veterans.
And despite the assurances from the White House that “direct assistance” to individuals would not be affected, the facts proved otherwise. The Medicaid portal was closed to states (who administer Medicaid funds) for much of the day. See Quartz, Trump Medicaid freeze locks 72 million Americans out of their health insurance. The administration claimed that the shutdown of the Medicaid portal was a “fluke” unrelated to the freeze—a lie so transparent it hurts to repeat it.
Here is the (semi) good news: The Trump administration has already begun to walk-back the reach of the ill-considered freeze, claiming that the following grants and loans are not affected by the freeze: Medicaid, student loans, small business loans, and SNAP food assistance. It is likely that as the media and constituents identify more crucial programs—like food inspection, air traffic control improvements, law enforcement subsidies, veterans’ programs--the administration will make case-by-case exceptions that will swallow the rule.
Although millions of Americans may suffer economic hardship and extreme anxiety in the short term, the financial crisis of withholding hundreds of billions of dollars with no notice may be averted. But the constitutional crisis remains front and center. We cannot allow the constitutional questions to be lost in the understandable focus on the financial implications of Trump's order.
Trump's order is unconstitutional—and it is important that we not lose sight of that fact
Many in the media are downplaying the illegality and unconstitutionality of Trump's “freeze” order. Andrea Mitchell of MSNBC described the illegal order as “controversial.” The New York Times covered the freeze order as a political kerfuffle: “Trump’s ‘Flood the Zone’ Strategy Leaves Opponents Gasping in Outrage.” The NYTimes Editorial Board had nothing to say about Trump's blatant effort to rewrite the Constitution by demoting Congress to an advisory body subject to being overridden on presidential whim.
Congressional Republicans defended the order’s legality. The few Republicans who criticized the order did so only on the ground that it “went too far” in affecting their constituents. Susan Collins said,
I think the administration needs to be more selective and look at it one department at a time, for example. But make sure important direct service programs are not affected.
Here’s the problem with Susan Collins’s analysis: The order is unconstitutional not because it is overbroad but because the president has no authority to freeze funds appropriated by Congress. Period. See ABC News, Trump funding freeze a blatant violation of Constitution, federal law: Legal experts.
As I wrote yesterday, we need to set aside euphemisms and niceties in raising the alarm. Rebecca Solnit (of The Guardian) rose to the challenge with a post on BlueSky:
[T]hat was a coup last night in case no one mentioned that to you.
The executive branch seized the power of the purse the Constitution gave to Congress, which is a pretty authoritarian / illegal consolidation of powers move.
Time to go yell at your reps, the media, etc.
Senator Angus King of Maine said,
This is a profound constitutional issue. What happened last night is the most direct assault on the authority of Congress, I believe, in the history of the United States.
See Charles P. Pierce, Esquire, Trump’s Federal Grant Freeze Looks Like an Assault on the Authority of Congress.
The grassroots organization Indivisible likewise pulled no punches with a special alert to its members, headlined: Trump’s Dictatorial Power Grab: Chaos, Cruelty, and Constitutional Collapse.
Indivisible wrote:
Congress Controls Federal Spending. The Constitution explicitly gives Congress—not the president—the power to allocate and control federal funds. By freezing funds Congress appropriated, Trump is undermining a foundational principle of democracy.
The Impoundment Control Act (ICA). Enacted after Nixon’s abuses, the ICA explicitly prohibits the president from withholding funds appropriated by Congress without following a strict process. Trump has not followed this process, and in many cases, the ICA outright bars the impoundment of these funds.
Indivisible suggests a “no holds barred” response (with which I wholeheartedly agree):
Refuse to Negotiate. Trump is using federal programs as hostages in a power grab. Democrats must refuse to engage in any funding or debt ceiling negotiations while this freeze remains in place. No compromises with dictatorship.
Sound the Alarm. Every senator must become a megaphone for what’s at stake. Go on TV, hold town halls, and flood social media with the stories of families who will lose food, homes, and healthcare because of Trump’s chaos.
Back Legal Challenges. Support every lawsuit challenging this freeze. File amicus briefs, amplify cases, and make it clear this isn’t just morally wrong—it’s illegal.
All good suggestions. And the point about backing legal challenges may be the best way to fight this power grab. US District Judge Loren L. AliKhan issued a short-term administrative stay to allow further briefing on an application for an injunction. See CNN, Judge temporarily blocks part of Trump administration’s plans to freeze federal aid.
The lawsuit before Judge AliKhan makes an important point: The memo was issued by the Acting Director of the OMB. Per the lawsuit, the OMB has no authority to direct agencies to freeze funds appropriated by Congress. Per the plaintiffs in the lawsuit:
The [OMB] Memo fails to explain the source of (the Office of Management and Budget’s) purported legal authority to gut every program in the federal government.
Good point. While the OMB is integral to the preparation and monitoring of congressional appropriations, OMB has no authority to override a congressional appropriation. See, generally, Congressional Research Service, Office of Management and Budget (OMB): An Overview.
Here are the takeaways:
First, the freeze threatens the separation of powers specified in the Constitution. We must not allow that point to be lost in the chaos and pain that the illegal order will cause.
Second, the upwelling of public outrage spreading across America is already having an impact! This is the path forward! We must do more of it consistently over the long term. We are off to a good start!
Other items of note.
The constitutional crisis provoked by the illegal freeze is occupying much of the political discussion on Tuesday evening—as it should.
But other important items deserve our attention. I mention a few below, but space and time prohibit me from covering everything. If I miss something, please post a note in the Comment section or send me a polite reminder. Even better, send me a link to a reputable source that I can share with readers. Thanks!
Caroline Kennedy gives stark warning about Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Caroline Kennedy is the daughter of President John F. Kennedy and cousin to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. On Tuesday, she released a remarkable condemnation of the character and qualifications of Robert F. Kennedy to serve as Secretary of HHS. Watch a video of Caroline Kennedy reading her statement, or view the statement here: See NYTimes, Caroline Kennedy Urges Senators to Reject Her Cousin’s Nomination. (Accessible to all.)
Trump signs order prohibiting gender-affirming care for people under 19 years of age
Trump has purported to outlaw providing gender-affirming care—including transition care—to anyone under 19 years of age. See Erin in the Morning, The Chilling Line Trump Just Crossed On Transgender People. See also, Mother Jones, “Dystopian”: Trump Issues New Order to Stamp Out Trans Youth Healthcare.
Pushback causes Trump administration to reverse the prohibition on AIDS prevention and treatment assistance to foreign countries
Late last week, Trump signed an executive order that prohibited foreign medical aid organizations from dispensing HIV prevention and treatment medicines. After an enormous public outcry, the Trump administration has now reversed the ban and allowed foreign aid organizations to resume lifesaving treatment and prevention. See NYTimes, State Department Permits Distribution of H.I.V. Medications to Resume. (Behind a paywall.)
Office of Personnel Management offers federal employees nine months’ severance if they resign in the next week
Millions of federal employees received an email of dubious authenticity that offered them 9 months’ severance if they replied “RESIGN” to the email—thereby tendering their resignation. Late Tuesday evening, agencies within the federal government were warning their employees not to respond to the email until questions about its authenticity, legality, and effect on federal pensions could be determined. See Trump offers US federal workers buyouts to resign.
Trump fires EEOC and NLRB Board members
Trump fired EEOC and NLRB board members. The NLRB no longer has a quorum of commissioners and, therefore, cannot consider complaints brought by workers against employers. See Trump fires NLRB and EEOC Democrats, setting up legal fight : NPR.
Opportunities for reader engagement
Join me on Wednesday at 7:00 Eastern for an Action Party with Climate Action Now
Reminder: On Wednesday, January 29, from 7-8 pm ET, I will be hosting Climate Action Now’s Action Party to Save the EV Tax. Register here: Save the EV Credits Action Party. Also, download the Climate Action Now app here: Apple and Android.
Reader meetings in London and Edinburgh
Join Jill and me for in-person meetings in London and Edinburgh. Sign up here: Reader Meeting - London March 2 or Reader Meeting Edinburgh - March 8.
Founding Member Zoom Call on Wednesday, January 29
Founding Members: We will have our regular monthly Zoom call on Wednesday, January 29 at 8:00pm Eastern / 5:00pm Pacific. You will receive a separate email with the Zoom link.
Concluding Thoughts
I received many emotional emails from readers after yesterday’s newsletter. The emails covered a broad range of emotions responding to the fact that Trump has begun to act like a dictator. Most readers expressed anger (at Trump), fear, or despair.
Several readers expressed anger at “Democrats” or “Democratic leadership” for not doing a better job of opposing Trump in Congress or rallying public opinion against Trump.
I understand the frustration. But I believe we should acknowledge that we are in uncharted waters. How do you respond to someone who begins to exercise dictatorial powers—especially when you are in the minority?
The suggestion from Indivisible that Democrats “shut down the Senate” is good advice. But as the minority party in the Senate, Democrats don’t control the calendar, the questioning of nominees, or how Republicans vote. So, even a “Senate shutdown” will bump up against limitations. It is still an idea worth pursuing.
One of the items in Marc Elias’s top ten list for surviving the next four years is to “Support Democrats.” Marc makes the point that we need to be as loyal and supportive of our party’s leaders as Republicans are of theirs. We can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. In whatever ways you can, support Democrats who are on the front lines—even if you believe they should be doing more.
But if you can’t support Democrats because you are angry or disappointed, you should at least re-direct your ire from Democrats to Trump. I received several lengthy screeds that excoriated Democratic leaders for being ineffective.
If the readers had expended that same amount of energy writing a letter to the editor of a local newspaper or leaving a comment under an article in a major news outlet, everyone would have been better off.
So, if you feel the urge to criticize Democrats, re-direct that energy and emotional investment to criticizing Trump or trying to persuade his supporters that Democrats are the better choice at the ballot box despite all their faults.
We are all suffering from emotional overload and have limited bandwidth to express the conflicting emotions that are making us feel anxious and exhausted. Let’s be strategic in how we allocate our strong emotions. Help Democrats as much as you can. Blame the cause of the problem, not the people who are trying to remediate the problem!
Talk to you tomorrow!
Daily Dose of Perspective
The clear skies in Los Angeles on Monday night allowed me to capture the clearest image of the Horse Head Nebula I have ever captured.
The nebula is 1,350 light-years from Earth and has a radius of 3.5 light-years.
Enjoy!
Some good news: Mike Zimmer, a Democrat, school board president, teacher, and coach won a special election for Iowa State Senate District 35, a district Trump won by 21 points in November. That’s right! He flipped a T+21 district from red to blue. Markers For Democracy wrote postcards for this race. https://www.kcrg.com/2025/01/29/democratic-candidate-wins-special-election-iowa-senate-seat/
Trump is obsessed with winning. I was dismayed when it looked like he had bullied President Petro into a complete surrender. The U.S. returning citizens of Colombia by plane is nothing new. Trump's deportations included shackles, military planes with no air-conditioning causing some people to faint, no water, and no bathrooms. Pres. Petro wanted returning Colombians to be treated humanly, like they had previously. I've read it was agreed those changes would be made, solving the problem. Trump was able declare himself the winner, and Petro the loser.
Did you notice how Gov. Gavin Newsom punked Trump? After publicly shaming Trump to visit the fire area, Trump had no intention of meeting with Newsom, but the governor showed up on the tarmac, and there's a great photo of the governor pointing his finger at the president. Trump hates Newsom so much. In order to "win" this one, Trump declared that on his order, the military came in and turned on the spigot sending water from the Pacific Northwest to LA to put out the fires. All of us living in the Pacific Northwest know that did not happen. Yet, Trump's Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, announced that humongous lie at her first press briefing so that Trump can think of himself as the savior, instead of Mother Nature who brought the rain.
I'm not sure how Trump is going to spin the freezing of funds debacle into a win, but I know that he'll do anything to not be seen as a loser.